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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 02, 2022
Monday, July 04 is a holiday in the USA for Independence Day, probably the most important holiday of the year for the US. Everything is closed and everybody is celebrating.
It was quite an interesting week for grain and oilseed prices this week. Corn and wheat prices plunged lower while soybeans/soymeal did their very best to rally higher.
Corn prices in the US were down by about USD 25 m/t while both soymeal and soybeans would have been up on the week except for a price collapse on Friday. There was no saving wheat prices as they fell as much as USD 45 m/t for spring wheat and USD 33 m/t for winter wheat.
Soybeans are said to be lower on Friday in quite a surprise as USDA acreage numbers were expected to push prices higher. Trade experts are now saying that even with expected smaller planting there will be lots of soybeans and if China has a bad economic year then world soybean stocks could grow, assuming that China's soybean imports will drop.
Old crop corn prices continue higher while new crop is a little weaker --- this is what tends to happen every year before the harvest as old stock get harder to find while new crop production looks just great.
Wheat prices in the USA and almost everywhere moved lower this week – taking back much of the rally that came after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Seems that the market has decided that there won't be any shortage of wheat with most countries looking to having good wheat crops. There also seems to be a great deal of expectation that we will see good quantities of wheat from both Ukraine and Russia but that may just be wishful thinking.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $74/75.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $73/74.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $74/75.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $76/77.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $77/78.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $76/77.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $43/44.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $94/95.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $99/100.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $68/69.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $79/80.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $55/56.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $93/94.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $71/72.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $75/76.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $78/79.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $71/72.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $74/75.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $99/100.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $69/70.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $61/62.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $68/69.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $71/72.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $75/76.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $72/73.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $74/75.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $99/100.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $72/73.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $85/86.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $28/29.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 2214 | Down 117 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2381 | Down 15 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 2477 | Down 218 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 2290 | Down 159 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 1276 | Down 58 | X |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 6577 | Down 455 | X |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR July 2022/September 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 331 -- 379 October | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 377 -- 399 October | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | No prices | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 398/402 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 395/400 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 374/377 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 450/460 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 380>>350 October | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 323/326 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 325/330 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 335/340 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 360/365 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 335>>300 October | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 370>>330 October | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 260>>253 October | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 276/280 October | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 327/330 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 350/360 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | No prices |
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| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | No prices |
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| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 275 --295 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 355>>320 October | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 540>>490 October | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 575>>525 October | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | USD 525/530 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 475>>460 October | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 535/540 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 480>>465 October | X |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 630>>580 October | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 620>>550 October | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 640>>595 October | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 770/780 m/t Sept | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 310/315 m/t Sept | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 310/320 m/t Sept. | X |
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All corn byproduct prices were down this week but not down as much as some had expected. For protein based items like corn gluten meal and DDGS the drop in corn prices was largely offset by the rally in soymeal price. According to trade reports, DDGS export prices in Nola were down USD 10 to 15 m/t while corn gluten meal was down by about USD 10 m/t. Corn gluten feed export prices looked to be a little higher.
As we are in to a long weekend in the US the market prices on Friday tend to react to the holiday rather than to the market. Once everyone in the US gets back to work on Tuesday it will be interesting to see which way the markets will move.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There was almost no catch this week due to the very wide-ranging fishing bans brought on by the continued high level of juvenile fish in most areas. Only just under 5,000 m/t of catch was reported for the week from only 37 vessels.
Fishmeal prices are steady but there is a severe shortage of Super Prime fishmeal. New business this week is almost zero as the trade reports that producers are afraid to book more business when they are not sure how much of the quota will be landed. No one now wants to sell more than they will produce – as they have done a few times in years past.
Producers are said to have covered all their presales and are now about 62,000 m/t of fishmeal unsold --- this is not really much fishmeal – especially if the fishing season is brought to an early halt by the authorities which seems to be a serious risk.
There is still 850,000 m/t to go on the current quota, but high levels of juveniles could bring an end to this season's fishing.
Reports say that local prices in China are moving higher as importers feel that world fishmeal prices will be higher in coming weeks – they don't want to sell too low and then end up with higher replacement prices.
Just FYI the 6 largest producers in Peru represent just over 88% of all fishmeal exports.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,115 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,605 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,750 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,800 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,105 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1560/1580 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1610/1630 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1660/1680 m/t | 1650/1670 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1710/1730 m/t | 1700/1720 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1760/1780 m/t | 1740/1760 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3600/3650 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 4200/4300 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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