A division of Hammersmith
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Corporate Head Office: 1st Floor,
Building A, Caves Corporate Center,
Blake Road and West Bay Street, Nassau,
Bahamas.
Email:
wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative
Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3
Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY
USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 22, 2022
Looking at the numbers, it seemed to be a
quiet week this week. Corn prices were a couple of dollars lower while soybeans
were able to move USD 4 m/t higher with soymeal up by USD 4 to 6 m/t. Even
wheat prices were reasonably quiet with US spring wheat up by about USD 3 m/t
and winter wheat down by zero to USD 3 m/t depending on the type – hard or
soft.
Other than the weather, the main talk in the
grain business is currently about the future of the Black Sea grain shipment
corridor agreement --- will it or won’t it be extended. There have been
comments that it may not be extended immediately with Russia hoping to gain an
advantage by not agreeing to the extension at once. One would think that a
delay would certainly be bullish for wheat and corn prices.
Harvest weather looks good in much of the US,
so farmers are happy. However, there does seem to be quite a bit of October
rain in the forecast which will slow things down.
US corn and soybean prices should continue to
feel harvest pressure for a while which could mean prices will be steady/lower
rather than higher ---- unless the expected rain goes on and on and on.
Estimated Bulk Grain
Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
A large number of the freight estimates below are being
reviewed. It appears that the information received from a “reliable” source is
not accurate – mainly for shipments from Brazil and Argentina.
|
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax |
$30/31.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t |
$30/31.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t |
$60/61.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax |
$60/61.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t |
$61/62.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Gulf Morocco: Handi |
$61/62.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi |
$62/63.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t |
$65/66.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Gulf other Med: Handi |
$63/64.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Gulf South Africa: Handi |
$60/61.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Gulf to India: Panamax |
$67/68.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax |
$76/77.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Gulf Japan: Panamax |
$63/64.00 |
Down $1.00 |
|
|
US Gulf China: Panamax |
$62/63.00 |
Down $1.00 |
|
|
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t |
$65/66.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US PNW Egypt: Panamax |
$61/62.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US PNW Philippines: Panamax |
$39/40.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US PNW Japan: Panamax |
$37/36.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US PNW China: Panamax |
$36/37.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize |
$65/66.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t |
$94/95.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t |
$93/94.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
France/Germany to Algeria:
Handi |
$27/28.00 |
Steady |
|
|
France/Germany to Bangladesh |
$79/80.00 |
Steady |
|
|
France/Germany to China: Panamax |
$85/86.00 |
Down $4.00 |
|
|
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax |
$35/36.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
France/Germany to India: Panamax |
$65/66.00 |
Steady |
|
|
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax |
$65/66.00 |
Steady |
|
|
France/Germany to Jordan |
$56/57.00 |
Steady |
|
|
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi |
$26/27.00 |
Steady |
|
|
France/Germany to
Saudi Arabia: Panamax |
N/A |
|
|
|
France/Germany to South Africa: Handi |
$45/46.00 |
Steady |
|
|
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi |
$38/39.00 |
Steady |
|
|
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi |
$63/64.00 |
Steady |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Argentina to Algeria: Handi |
$87/88.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to China: Panamax |
$57/58.00 |
Down $1.00 |
|
|
Argentina to Japan: Panamax |
$58/59.00 |
Down $1.00 |
|
|
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax |
$90/91.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to Europe: Panamax |
$81/82.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to Morocco: Handi |
$86/87.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to Libya: Handi |
$88/89.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax |
$60/61.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax |
N/A |
|
|
|
Argentina to Iran: Panamax |
$61/62.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to India: Panamax |
$62/63.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax |
$66/67.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax |
$60/61.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax |
$33/34.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to Kenya: Handi |
$66/67.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to Spain: Panamax |
$81/82.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi |
$87/88.00 |
Steady |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi |
$90/91.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Brazil to China: Panamax |
$58/59.00 |
Down $1.00 |
|
|
Brazil to Japan: Panamax |
$57/58.00 |
Down $1.00 |
|
|
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax |
$67/68.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Brazil to Europe: Panamax |
$83/84.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Brazil to Morocco: Handi |
$89/90.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Brazil to Iran: Panamax |
$62/63.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax |
$64/65.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t |
N/A |
|
|
|
Brazil to Spain: Panamax |
$83/84.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax |
$97/98.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Australia to Saudi: Panamax |
$38/39.00 |
Down $1.00 |
|
|
Australia to Europe: Panamax |
$36/37.00 |
Steady |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Black
Sea freight – Romania and Russia |
|
|
|
|
Black Sea to China: Panamax |
$58/59.00 |
Down $1.00 |
|
|
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax |
$62/63.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 |
$26/27.00 |
Down $1.00 |
|
|
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 |
$29/30.00 |
Down $1.00 |
|
|
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax |
$61/62.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax |
$30/31.00 |
Down $1.00 |
|
|
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi |
$32/33.00 |
Up $2.00 |
|
|
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi |
$31/32.00 |
Up $2.00 |
|
|
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax |
$37/38.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Black Sea to Libya – Handi |
$33/34.00 |
Up $2.00 |
|
|
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax |
$60/61.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi |
$27/28.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi |
$57/58.00 |
Steady |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Baltic Dry Index |
1819 |
Down 19 |
|
|
Baltic Capesize Index |
2071 |
Down 95 |
|
|
Baltic Panamax Index |
2144 |
Up 63 |
|
|
Baltic Supramax Index |
1678 |
Down 12 |
|
|
Baltic Handisize Index |
961 |
Down 72 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Global Container Index - Freightos |
3429 |
Down 111 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2022/January 2023
|
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf |
USD 375>> 369 February |
|
|
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US
Gulf |
USD 431>> 425 February |
|
|
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t |
USD 300/305 |
|
|
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t |
USD 320/325 |
|
|
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro |
USD 325>>310 February |
|
|
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen |
USD 332/335 |
|
|
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver |
USD 375>>360 January |
|
|
Wheat, feed, Black Sea |
USD 285>>270 February |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Barley, France, Rouen port |
USD 296/300 |
|
|
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver |
USD 315/320 |
|
|
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ |
USD 285/290 |
|
|
Barley, feed, Australia |
USD 285/290 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA |
USD 345>>325 January |
|
|
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest |
USD 345>>335 January |
|
|
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver |
USD 285/295 |
|
|
Corn, FOB Brazil port |
USD 295/305 |
|
|
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic |
USD 335>>325 January |
|
|
Corn, FOB Romania |
USD 285/290 |
|
|
Corn, FOB Russia |
USD 295/300 February |
|
|
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t |
USD 285/290 |
|
|
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port |
USD 275/285 |
|
|
Sorghum, FOB Texas |
USD 375/380 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA |
USD 560>>495 February |
|
|
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam |
USD 595<<530 February |
|
|
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot |
No prices |
|
|
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina |
USD 500>>485 February |
|
|
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam –
spot |
USD 550/555 |
|
|
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil |
USD 510>>475 February |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Soybeans, FOB NOLA |
USD 605>>580 February |
|
|
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB |
USD 590>>560 February |
|
|
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB |
USD 605>>560 February |
|
|
Soybeans, Black Sea |
No prices |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA |
USD 850/860 m/t |
|
|
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA |
USD 290/300 m/t |
|
|
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA |
USD 340>>330 m/t January |
|
|
|
|
|
DDGS prices look to be moving lower as
ethanol production has picked up again and logistics problems in the US are
being solved. FOB NOLA prices for DDGS near the end of 2022 are off by USD 10
m/t. No weakness in nearby prices as most shippers are sold out well into
November.
Corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed FOB
prices are steady, but CNF prices are moving lower due to the continuing
weakness in container freight prices. Current container price indexes are at
less than half of where they were three or four months ago.
SECTION 2 ---
FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The discussions on the size of the next
fishing quota in the North/Central region of Peru seem to be expecting about 2
million m/t – this seems to be supported by comments by the produce minister.
However, this is all still just speculation.
Fishmeal prices in China are moving higher
which may mean that buyers will raise their offers in Peru for further
purchases. China prices are up by about USD 15 m/t. MSI Ceres mentioned in its
report this week that increased prices in China do not necessarily translate
back to higher prices in Peru.
MSI Ceres also mentions this week that
container prices from Peru are expected to be lower for the next season
following along with the worldwide drop in container freight price levels. Last
season container freight levels were up around USD 90 m/t to Asia but may
be/should be significantly lower for the upcoming season.
Presales against the next quota are said to
be up to at least 185,000 m/t with some saying that it may be closer to 200,000
m/t.
PERU “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
|
Type |
Protein % |
Price per m/t USD |
|
Herring fishmeal |
72%
protein |
2,110 |
|
Danish fishmeal |
64%
protein |
1,655 |
|
Peru fishmeal |
64%
protein |
1,675 |
|
Chile fishmeal |
67%
protein |
1,755 |
|
Iceland fishmeal |
70%
protein |
2,025 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON
VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
|
Specification |
Price per
m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
|
67% protein standard steam |
1460/1480 m/t |
|
|
67% protein 150 TVN |
1510/1530 m/t |
|
|
67% protein 120 TVN |
1560/1580 m/t |
1600/1620 |
|
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN |
1610/1630 m/t |
1640/1660 |
|
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN |
1660/1680 m/t |
1660/1680 |
|
|
|
|
|
Fish oil, crude bulk |
3900/4000 |
3700/3800 |
|
Fish oil, crude drums |
No prices |
|
|
Fish oil, flexi tank |
No prices |
|
|
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA |
4400/4500 |
|
INFORMATION:
gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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