A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
Corporate Head Office: 1st Floor, Building A, Caves Corporate Center,
Blake Road and West Bay Street, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 08, 2022
Seems like a reasonably quiet week for everything except US wheat this week. US corn prices moved up by only and USD 3 m/t with soybeans up by about USD 2 m/t while soymeal prices ranged from up USD 2 to down USD 2 m/t. US winter wheat was down by USD 8 to 12 m/t while spring wheat dropped by about USD 4 m/t.
With the next USDA WASDE report due next week, experts are wondering wheat will happen to the market. Corn is expected to be a little bullish with US yields expected to be lowered a little by USDA.
Soybeans touched on their recent low level this week and that seemed to bring out some buying interest from folks who thought that they had a pre-report bargain. However, the market seems to think that the USDA will increase soybean production which, if true, could make the market bearish for a bit. There is also concern over a lack of rainfall for the soybeans in both Brazil and Argentina which will certainly add to the uncertainty in the soybean market.
World wheat prices moved a little lower this week which helped to pressure US prices and then the weather for the winter wheat crop was looking quite good. Most experts don't seem to be looking for any exciting news on US wheat from the WASDE with most thinking there will be little change in US yields, production and stocks from the September report.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $58/59.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $59/60.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $59/60.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $76/77.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW China: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $93/94.00 | Steady |
|
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $92/93.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $27/28.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $76/77.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $86/87.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Jordan | $56/57.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $26/27.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $102/103.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $38/39.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $86/87.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to China: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $56/57.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $89/90.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $80/81.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $85/86.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $87/88.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $109/110.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $66/67.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $80/81.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $86/87.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $89/90.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $82/83.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $88/89.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $109/110.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $82/83.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $96/97.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $27/28.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1961 | Up 201 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index | 2396 | Up 190 |
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| Baltic Panamax Index | 2235 | Up 153 |
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| Baltic Supramax Index | 1706 | Up 43 |
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| Baltic Handisize Index | 1033 | Up 24 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 3699 | Down 361 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2022/December 2022
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 406>> 391 January |
|
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 439>> 427 January |
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| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 285/290 |
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| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 325/330 |
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| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 320>>300 January |
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| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 348/351 |
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| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 360>>350 January |
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| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 280/285 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 310/313 |
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| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 300/305 |
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| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 290/295 |
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| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 290/295 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 340>>320 January |
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| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 370>>345 January |
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| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 280/285 |
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| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 295<<305 January |
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| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 345>>335 January |
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| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 295/300 |
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| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 280/290 |
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| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255/260 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 275/285 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 360/365 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 480>>475 January |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 515>>510 January |
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| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | No prices |
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| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 465>>455 January |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 525/530 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 475>>455 January |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 575>>560 January |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 565>>540 January |
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| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 585>>560 January |
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| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 875/880 m/t |
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| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 320/330 m/t |
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| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 340/350 m/t |
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Export prices for all corn byproducts were higher this week – pushed up by increased prices in New Orleans. The low water level in the Mississippi River has increased the transport costs down the river which adds to the NOLA prices. The increase in prices is expected to drop off again once we get out a few weeks but with October sold out it looks like there will be no seriously lower prices before December or January.
However, CNF buyers in containers are seeing the benefit of quickly dropping container freight levels to most destinations. According to the container freight experts mist rates have dropped by about 50% from their highs.
There was some talk that DDGS prices should slip a bit as all the maintenance work on the ethanol facilities seems to be done and production is getting back up to normal.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Another week with no landings in the south of Peru, so the catch to date is still at 64,200 m/t leaving a balance of 422,300 m/t on the quota – about 15,300 m/t of fishmeal. The trade expects no catch for next week.
No new presales against the next quota were reported this week due mainly to China being on holidays. The holiday ended on Friday so everyone should be back to work on Monday.
It has been so quiet in Peru --- China has been closed for Golden Week – Oct 1 to 7 – and with China representing 85% of Peru's fishmeal business it meant that at least 85% of the buyers were off on holidays. Chinese buyer did pre-book a lot of next seasons quota before the holidays so there shouldn't be any sudden rush to buy this week.
Still too soon to have any good idea what the next Peru fishing quota will be – everyone will just speculate for a while.
The IFFO Annual Conference is only a couple of weeks away and this is expected to bring on a rush of new business for the next fishing season.
IFFO EVENTS
IFFO Annual Conference: Registration is open
24th-26th October 2022, Lima, Peru
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,090 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,640 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,670 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,750 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,000 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1460/1480 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1510/1530 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1560/1580 m/t | 1600/1620 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1610/1630 m/t | 1640/1660 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1660/1680 m/t | 1660/1680 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 4000/4100 | 3700/3800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 4300/4400 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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