Hammersmith
Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith
Marketing Ltd.
Corporate Head Office: 1st Floor,
Building A, Caves Corporate Center,
Blake Road and West Bay Street, Nassau,
Bahamas.
Email:
wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW:
hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative
Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3
Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
If anyone is
wandering around the SIAL show in Paris next week you could just bump into me.
WEEKLY
USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT October 15, 2022
Corn, soybeans and soymeal all moved higher
this week while US wheat prices moved lower. Corn and soybeans did move lower
on Friday but were still higher on the week while the big drop in wheat prices
on Friday wiped out price gains in wheat earlier in the week.
As usual wheat prices were moved along by
Black Sea stories and this week prices dropped on what the market thought was a
“softening” of Putin’s attitude on more attacks on Ukraine. Some trade reports
say that the drop in wheat prices on Friday was mainly due to the weakness on
Wall Steet which could mean that wheat prices may be up again on Monday.
The US corn harvest looks to have good
weather for the next few days which will add more harvest pressure on prices.
It is also said that lower consumption of gasoline, due to high prices, could
lead to lower ethanol production and reduced corn consumption. However, there
are still serious concerns about supplies of corn out of the Black Sea and
increased EU import demand both of which could push corn prices higher.
Soybean prices seemed to be lower on Friday
but still a little higher on the week. Good harvest weather and the fact that
soybean supplies seem to be pilling up could weaken prices, but we are also
getting into the highest consumption period of the year as animal feed demand
increases. Trade reports were noting how US soybean exports are well behind
last year’s levels with no one seeing much strength in soybean/soymeal prices
for now. We are also getting closer and closer to the expected giant Brazil
soybean crop in early 2023 which should keep downward pressure on prices as we
get closer to the end of the year.
Estimated Bulk Grain
Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
|
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax |
$30/31.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t |
$30/31.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t |
$60/61.00 |
Up $2.00 |
|
|
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax |
$60/61.00 |
Up $2.00 |
|
|
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t |
$61/62.00 |
Up $2.00 |
|
|
US Gulf Morocco: Handi |
$61/62.00 |
Up $2.00 |
|
|
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi |
$62/63.00 |
Up $2.00 |
|
|
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t |
$65/66.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Gulf other Med: Handi |
$63/64.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Gulf South Africa: Handi |
$60/61.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Gulf to India: Panamax |
$67/68.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax |
$76/77.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Gulf Japan: Panamax |
$64/65.00 |
Up $3.00 |
|
|
US Gulf China: Panamax |
$63/64.00 |
Up $3.00 |
|
|
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t |
$65/66.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US PNW Egypt: Panamax |
$61/62.00 |
Up $2.00 |
|
|
US PNW Philippines: Panamax |
$39/40.00 |
Corrected |
|
|
US PNW Japan: Panamax |
$37/36.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
US PNW China: Panamax |
$36/37.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize |
$65/66.00 |
Up $2.00 |
|
|
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t |
$93/94.00 |
Steady |
|
|
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t |
$92/93.00 |
Steady |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
France/Germany to Algeria:
Handi |
$27/28.00 |
Steady |
|
|
France/Germany to Bangladesh |
$79/80.00 |
Up $3.00 |
|
|
France/Germany to China: Panamax |
$89/90.00 |
Up $3.00 |
|
|
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax |
$34/35.00 |
Steady |
|
|
France/Germany to India: Panamax |
$65/66.00 |
Steady |
|
|
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax |
$65/66.00 |
Steady |
|
|
France/Germany to Jordan |
$56/57.00 |
Steady |
|
|
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi |
$26/27.00 |
Steady |
|
|
France/Germany to
Saudi Arabia: Panamax |
$102/103.00 |
Steady |
|
|
France/Germany to South Africa: Handi |
$45/46.00 |
Steady |
|
|
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi |
$38/39.00 |
Steady |
|
|
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi |
$63/64.00 |
Steady |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Argentina to Algeria: Handi |
$87/88.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
Argentina to China: Panamax |
$58/59.00 |
Up $3.00 |
|
|
Argentina to Japan: Panamax |
$59/60.00 |
Up $3.00 |
|
|
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax |
$90/91.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
Argentina to Europe: Panamax |
$81/82.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
Argentina to Morocco: Handi |
$86/87.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
Argentina to Libya: Handi |
$88/89.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax |
$60/61.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax |
$110/111.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
Argentina to Iran: Panamax |
$61/62.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to India: Panamax |
$62/63.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax |
$66/67.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax |
$60/61.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax |
$33/34.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to Kenya: Handi |
$66/67.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Argentina to Spain: Panamax |
$81/82.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi |
$87/88.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi |
$90/91.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
Brazil to China: Panamax |
$59/60.00 |
Up $4.00 |
|
|
Brazil to Japan: Panamax |
$58/59.00 |
Up $4.00 |
|
|
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax |
$67/68.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Brazil to Europe: Panamax |
$83/84.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
Brazil to Morocco: Handi |
$89/90.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
Brazil to Iran: Panamax |
$62/63.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax |
$64/65.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t |
$110/111.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
Brazil to Spain: Panamax |
$83/84.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax |
$97/98.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Australia to Saudi: Panamax |
$39/40.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Australia to Europe: Panamax |
$36/37.00 |
Steady |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Black
Sea freight – Romania and Russia |
|
|
|
|
Black Sea to China: Panamax |
$59/60.00 |
Corrected |
|
|
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax |
$62/63.00 |
Up $2.00 |
|
|
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 |
$27/28.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 |
$30/31.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax |
$61/62.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax |
$31/32.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi |
$30/31.00 |
Down $1.00 |
|
|
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi |
$29/30.00 |
Down $1.00 |
|
|
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax |
$37/38.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Black Sea to Libya – Handi |
$31/32.00 |
Down $1.00 |
|
|
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax |
$60/61.00 |
Up $1.00 |
|
|
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi |
$27/28.00 |
Steady |
|
|
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi |
$57/58.00 |
Steady |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Baltic Dry Index |
1838 |
Down 123 |
|
|
Baltic Capesize Index |
2166 |
Down 230 |
|
|
Baltic Panamax Index |
2081 |
Down 154 |
|
|
Baltic Supramax Index |
1690 |
Down 16 |
|
|
Baltic Handisize Index |
1033 |
Down 21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Global Container Index - Freightos |
3540 |
Down 159 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2022/January 2023
|
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf |
USD 390>> 370 February |
|
|
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US
Gulf |
USD 436>> 420 February |
|
|
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t |
USD 285/290 |
|
|
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t |
USD 325/330 |
|
|
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro |
USD 320>>300 February |
|
|
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen |
USD 347/350 |
|
|
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver |
USD 360>>350 January |
|
|
Wheat, feed, Black Sea |
USD 280>>245 February |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Barley, France, Rouen port |
USD 310/313 |
|
|
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver |
USD 305/310 |
|
|
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ |
USD 285/290 |
|
|
Barley, feed, Australia |
USD 290/295 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA |
USD 345>>320 January |
|
|
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest |
USD 370>>345 January |
|
|
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver |
USD 290/300 |
|
|
Corn, FOB Brazil port |
USD 300/310 |
|
|
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic |
USD 345>>335 January |
|
|
Corn, FOB Romania |
USD 295/300 |
|
|
Corn, FOB Russia |
USD 275/290 February |
|
|
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t |
USD 255/260 |
|
|
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port |
USD 275/285 |
|
|
Sorghum, FOB Texas |
USD 375/380 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA |
USD 495/500 |
|
|
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam |
USD 530/535 |
|
|
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot |
No prices |
|
|
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina |
USD 495>>465 February |
|
|
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam –
spot |
USD 545/550 |
|
|
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil |
USD 495>>470 February |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Soybeans, FOB NOLA |
USD 595>>560 February |
|
|
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB |
USD 570>>540 February |
|
|
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB |
USD 605>>550 February |
|
|
Soybeans, Black Sea |
No prices |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA |
USD 850/860 m/t |
|
|
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA |
USD 290/300 m/t |
|
|
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA |
USD 350>>330 m/t January |
|
|
|
|
|
USA ethanol production was up this week which
improved the DDGS supply and Mississippi River barge rates have dropped which
is pulling CNF NOLA prices down. However, some reports are saying that
container rates from the US to major markets for DDGS and corn gluten meal
jumped by about USD 10 m/t this week.
All corn byproduct prices were lower this
week as supply problems seem to have been overcome.
Egypt has been a major market for corn gluten
meal since it banned meat and bone meal years ago – in recent years much of the
CGM and DDGS business to Egypt has been smaller lots in containers but today,
due to foreign exchange problems in Egypt, this container business has all but
disappeared. USA shippers no longer want to wait 2 months for cash docs payments
and local importers cannot afford the container demurrage that runs up with 2
months in port. Only buyers with non-Egypt sources of funds are able to import
small lots these days.
SECTION 2 ---
FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Once again there has been not reported catch
in the southern region of Peru. Poor weather conditions seem to be the main
reason.
Chinese buyers are reported to have increased
their price offer this week by about USD 20 m/t but producers/exporters don’t
want to book any more business as pre-sales for the next fishing season are
said to be up to about 170,000 m/t. Trade reports say that even with higher
prices producers are very reluctant to book more ---- it is all a matter of
where the quota will be set. Some trade reports are suggesting that the next
quota could be at the low end of estimates – which could be as low as 1.0
million m/t --- sellers just do not want risk being short if there is a small
quota.
Most trade reports seem to feel that prices
will continue to move higher, until we see what the quota level will be.
PERU “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
|
Type |
Protein % |
Price per m/t USD |
|
Herring fishmeal |
72%
protein |
2,120 |
|
Danish fishmeal |
64%
protein |
1,650 |
|
Peru fishmeal |
64%
protein |
1,665 |
|
Chile fishmeal |
67%
protein |
1,745 |
|
Iceland fishmeal |
70%
protein |
1,955 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON
VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
|
Specification |
Price per
m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
|
67% protein standard steam |
1460/1480 m/t |
|
|
67% protein 150 TVN |
1510/1530 m/t |
|
|
67% protein 120 TVN |
1560/1580 m/t |
1600/1620 |
|
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN |
1610/1630 m/t |
1640/1660 |
|
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN |
1660/1680 m/t |
1660/1680 |
|
|
|
|
|
Fish oil, crude bulk |
4000/4100 |
3700/3800 |
|
Fish oil, crude drums |
No prices |
|
|
Fish oil, flexi tank |
No prices |
|
|
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA |
4500/4600 |
|
INFORMATION:
gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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