Hammersmith Reports
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Phone : +33.6.8068.4564
Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT May 20, 2023
It is interesting that the reports seen from the wheat fields seem to be bullish about winter wheat prices but that is not seen in the market – at least not for the moment. Most experts feel that it was the agreement to an extension of the Black Sea Grain Corridor for 60 days that created a week market at the end of the week.
Good weather in the US is said to be the main factor behind lower corn prices for new crop corn but some experts are saying that they don't see corn prices going much lower, especially this early in the 2023 corn crop year.
With soybeans, lower prices seemed to be a combination of good growing weather and lower exports. Export markets seem to be swinging to Brazil these days where prices are very attractive. Soybeans seem to be in a bit of a bearish trend at present with no one feeling too bullish on USA soybean prices.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $29.00 | Down $1.00 | |
| $29.00 | Down $1.00 | | |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $31.00 | Up $1.00 | |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $31.00 | Up $1.00 | |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $32.00 | Up $1.00 | |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $33.00 | Steady | |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $34.00 | Steady | |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $44.00 | Steady | |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $36.00 | Steady | |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady | |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $51.00 | Steady | |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $50.00 | Steady | |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $31.00 | Steady | |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $28.00 | Down $1.00 | |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $28.00 | Steady | |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $52.00 | Up $1.00 | |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $61.00 | Up $1.00 | |
| | | | |
| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady | |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $82.00 | Steady | |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady | |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady | |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady | |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady | |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady | |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady | |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63.00 | Steady | |
| | | | |
| | | | |
| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $54.00 | Up $1.00 | |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $45.00 | Down $2.00 | |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $45.00 | Down $2.00 | |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $56.00 | Steady | |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady | |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $53.00 | Up $1.00 | |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $55.00 | Up $1.00 | |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady | |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady | |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady | |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $49.00 | Steady | |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady | |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $54.00 | Up $1.00 | |
| | | | |
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $53.00 | Steady | |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $40.00 | Down $2.00 | |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $41.00 | Down $2.00 | |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady | |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $52.00 | Steady | |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A | Steady | |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady | |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady | |
| | | | |
| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $55.00 | Up $1.00 | |
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $64.00 | Up $1.00 | |
| | | | |
| Black Sea freight | | | |
| Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $59 Ukraine $64 | | |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | Russia $55 Ukraine $65 | | |
| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $51 Ukraine $60 | | |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $27 Russia $32 Ukraine | | |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $21 Russia $27 Ukraine | | |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $52 Russia $62 Ukraine | | |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia $32 Ukraine | | |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $30 Russia $40 Ukraine | | |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $29 Russia $39 Ukraine | | |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia $53 Ukraine | | |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32 Russia $42 Ukraine | | |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $47 Russia $55 Ukraine | | |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $20 Russia $27 Ukraine | | |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | | |
| | | | |
| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $36.00 | Down $5.00 | |
| Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $67.00 | Down $9.00 | |
| Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $52.00 | | |
| Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | | |
| | | | |
| Baltic Dry Index | 1384 | Down 174 | |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2305 | Down 151 | |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1222 | Down 180 | |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1077 | Down 28 | |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 612 | Down 20 | |
| | | | |
| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1446 | Up 9 | |
| | | | |
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2023/August 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 258/255 | |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 360>>255 Aug | |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 235>>230 Aug | |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 245>>240 Aug | |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 255/260 | |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 252/255 | |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 330/335 | |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 230/235 | |
| | | |
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 240/243 | |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 245/250 | |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 220/230 | |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 245/250 | |
| | | |
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 245>>230 Aug | |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 275>>255 Aug | |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 230>>205 Aug | |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 230>>215 Aug | |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 264/267 | |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 230/235 | |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 225/230 | |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 230/235 | |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 270/280 | |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 282>>270 Aug | |
| | | |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 475/480 | |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 505/510 | |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 470>>455 Sep | |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 500/510 | |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 460>>455 Sep | |
| | | |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 515>>485 Sep | |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 495<<500 Sep | |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 470<<480 Sep | |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 480/485 Ukraine | |
| | | |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 710/720 | |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 240/250 | |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 285>>275 Aug | |
| | | |
Lower prices for corn and soymeal helped to push corn byproduct prices a little lower this week. DDGS prices for June/July are reported to be down by at least USD 10 m/t with corn gluten feed down by about the same amount. Corn gluten meal prices are said to be steady, but buyers are bidding quite a bit below the current published market price.
With corn and protein meal prices looking weak there doesn't seem to be aby reason this week to expect higher byproduct prices. Even with DDGS, where increased ethanol production is pushing supply higher.
Soo, for this week, the price trend looks steady to lower.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Still no decision on the next North/Central fishing quota or start date. Trade reports now favor an announcement in early/mid June. According to information on the biomass, the current level may be lower than what has been seen for a number of years but then the biomass numbers for this year may not be accurate.
All the talk seems to be about the El Nino event risk with not much risk seen before December 2023 and even then, the overall risk doesn't look too high.
Peru and Chile fishmeal prices remain strong as the delay in fishing news just helps to push prices higher as destination stocks could move a lot lower before any new production fishmeal can arrive. Stocks of fishmeal in China are good at present but if new season shipment arrivals are not until late in the year reduced stocks could push prices higher. Everything depends on the next Peru fishing season.
Peru super prime prices are said to range between USD 2,050 and 2,100 m/t for the new season. It will be interesting to see if the prices hold at current levels one the new quota is announced.
There was a little bit of fishing in the south – a very little bit. The total catch is now at 24,400 m/t which is about 5,400 m/t of fishmeal.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,030 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,795 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,000 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,000 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,940 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
| | | |
| 65% protein standard steam | 1850/1860 m/t | |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1900/1910 m/t | |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1950/1960 m/t | 1950/1960 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2000/2010 m/t | 2000/20100 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2050/2060 m/t | 2050/2060 |
| | | |
| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | |
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices | |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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