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Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT May 06, 2023
USA corn prices were up by about USD 5 m/t with soybeans up by USD 6 to 9 m/t and US hard red winter wheat up by USD 20 m/t and spring wheat up by USD 12 m/t. Soymeal ended the week down by about USD 7 m/t.
On the weather side, the US will see more rain in the corn belt with a good chunk of needed rainfall over the next couple of weeks.
All reports this week said that wheat prices were pushed higher by the uncertainty about the Black Sea grain corridor with the current agreement coming to an end on May18 with lots of strong talk from Russia ahead of new negotiations .
The rally by soybeans is said to be due to an "oversold" position that pushed prices too low and got buyer back into the market. There is also a feeling that the US will not lose market share to Brazilian soybeans --- while Brazil prices are lower deliver is said to be troublesome out of Brazil, as normally is the situation at harvest every year.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $30.00 | Up $1.00 |
| $30.00 | Up $1.00 | |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $30.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $30.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $31.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $34.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $35.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $44.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $37.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $53.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $53.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $31.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $53.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $82.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $53.00 | Up $4.00 |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $48.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $56.00 | Up $3.00 |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $42.00 | Up $3.00 |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $52.00 | Up $4.00 |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $54.00 | Up $3.00 |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $43.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $42.00 | Up $3.00 |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $53.00 | Up $4.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $53.00 | Up $3.00 |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $43.00 | Down $3.00 |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $44.00 | Down $3.00 |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $42.00 | Up $3.00 |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $52.00 | Up $3.00 |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A | Steady |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Up $3.00 |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $42.00 | Up $3.00 |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $63.00 | Up $4.00 |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $54.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $62.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Black Sea freight
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $60 Ukraine $70 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | Russia $59 Ukraine $64 |
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| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $52 Ukraine $60 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $27 Russia $32 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $21 Russia $42 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $53 Russia $65 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia $32 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $32 Russia $49 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $30 Russia $49 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $34.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $50 Russia $55 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $20 Russia $41 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | Steady |
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| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $41.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Russia to Egypt – coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $76.00 | Down $4.00 |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1558 | Down 18 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2384 | Up 83 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1501 | Down 85 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1096 | Down 69 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 645 | Down 18 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1497 | Down 102 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2023/August 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 270>>265 Aug |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 365>>360 Aug |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 235/240 |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255/260 |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 260/265 |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 267/270 |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 325/330 |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 230/235 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 250/253 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 240/245 |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 240/245 |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 255/260 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 270>>250 Aug |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 295>>275 Aug |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 245>>210 Aug |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 245>>225 Aug |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 273/276 |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 235/240 |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 235/240 |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 225/230 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 280/290 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 325>>300 Aug |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 495/500 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 525/530 |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 480>>475 Aug |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 510/515 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 475>>470 Aug |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 565>>545 Aug |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 535<<550 Aug |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 490<<505 Aug |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 480/485 Ukraine |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | No prices |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | No prices |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | No prices |
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Sorry but no reliable prices for corn byproducts available this week as info from suppliers/exporters had a very, very wide spread in prices. However, this week's US Grains Council report says that export DDGS prices were down by close to USD 30 m/t this week --- that is a very significant drop in the prices by the USGC, if correct.
It is certain the prices for all corn byproducts are a little lower on the week but in some cases, there is as much as a USD 50 m/t spread between suppliers for corn gluten meal and USD 25 m/t for DDGS.
We will have to see what the coming week bring s and if prices calm down a little so a decent export price can be determined.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
A little more fishing in the south of Peru again this week, about 4,700 m/t which brings the total catch up to 17,900 m/t and leaves 320,000 m/t on the quota.
No word yet about the north/central quota but the latest info from IMARPE is that the latest juvenile fish level is up at about 82% and that spawning has dropped off a little. IMARPE has said that there will be another research cruise in May. So, it look like we will not have any fishing starting until late May at the earliest but perhaps it will be early June. No quota announcement expected for 2 to 3 weeks.
According to the MSI Ceres comments from the IFFO conference in Madrid super prime fishmeal and fishily prices are being pushed quite a bit higher as demand looks to be very strong. Speculation on the new quota ranges from a low of 800,000 m/t to a high of 1.2 mm/t.
Peru fishmeal exports to the end of March reached 356,000 m/t with 300,000 m/t going to China --- 90% of all fishmeal shipments from Peru went to Asia.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,065 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,800 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,005 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,015 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,000 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein standard steam | 1800/1810 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1850/1860 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1900/1910 m/t | 1800/1810 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1950/1960 m/t | 1850/1860 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2000/2010 m/t | 1890/1900 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 5800/5900 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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