Hammersmith Reports
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Phone : +33.6.8068.4564
Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW : hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT May 13, 2023
Prior to the WASDE corn prices had been down by about USD 7 m/t while soybeans were down by USD 11.
The WASDE showed soybean production at record levels which is what pushed prices lower. Corn production was also seen as higher in the report but higher consumption for ethanol and grater corn exports made the Friday corn market more bullish than bearish. The WASDE report sees corn prices dropping by about 27% with soybean prices down by close to 15%.
Wheat prices were up/down depending on the type of US wheat with soft red winter wheat lower on the week but up a little after the report while hard red winter wheat moved higher by close to USD 11 m/t. US spring wheat too was a little higher on the week. Lower forecasted wheat yields in the WASDE was what pushed most wheat prices higher --- even with lower projected exports. The WASDE also sees wheat prices as dropping by about 10%.
And in the Black Sea, the negotiations on the renewal of the Black Sea Grain Corridor continue but most pundits seem to feel the extension will only be for another 60 days --- not long enough to give any certainty to grain markets.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady |
|
| $30.00 | Steady |
| |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $30.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $31.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $33.00 | Down $1.00 |
|
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $34.00 | Down $1.00 |
|
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $44.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $36.00 | Down $1.00 |
|
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $51.00 | Down $2.00 |
|
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $50.00 | Down $3.00 |
|
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $31.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $29.00 | Down $1.00 |
|
| US PNW China: Panamax | $28.00 | Down $1.00 |
|
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
|
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $51.00 | Down $2.00 |
|
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $60.00 | Down $2.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $82.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63.00 | Steady |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $53.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $47.00 | Down $1.00 |
|
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $47.00 | Down $1.00 |
|
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $56.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $52.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $54.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $49.00 | Adjusted |
|
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $53.00 | Steady |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $53.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $42.00 | Down $1.00 |
|
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $43.00 | Down $1.00 |
|
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $52.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $54.00 | Steady |
|
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $63.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Black Sea freight
|
|
|
|
| Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $60 Ukraine $64 |
|
|
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | Russia $59 Ukraine $70 |
|
|
| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $52 Ukraine $60 |
|
|
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $27 Russia $29 Ukraine |
|
|
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $21 Russia $39 Ukraine |
|
|
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $53 Russia $63 Ukraine |
|
|
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia $32 Ukraine |
|
|
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $31 Russia $49 Ukraine |
|
|
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $30 Russia $48 Ukraine |
|
|
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia $53 Ukraine |
|
|
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $34.00 |
|
|
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $50 Russia $55 Ukraine |
|
|
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $20 Russia $27 Ukraine |
|
|
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $41.00 | Steady |
|
| Russia to Egypt – coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $76.00 | Steady |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index | 1558 | No change |
|
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2456 | Up 72 |
|
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1402 | Down 99 |
|
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1105 | Up 9 |
|
| Baltic Handisize Index | 632 | Down 13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1437 | Down 60 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2023/August 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 258/261 |
|
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 365/368 |
|
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 240>>230 Aug |
|
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255>>250 Aug |
|
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 260>>255 Aug |
|
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 257/260 |
|
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 325/330 |
|
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 230/235 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 261/264 |
|
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 245/250 |
|
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 240/245 |
|
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 245/250 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 265>>220 Aug |
|
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 290>>260 Aug |
|
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 235>>205 Aug |
|
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 240>>220 Aug |
|
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 267/270 |
|
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 240/245 |
|
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 250/255 |
|
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 225/230 |
|
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 270/280 |
|
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 310>>290 Aug |
|
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 495/500 |
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 525/530 |
|
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 495>>475 Aug |
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 520/525 |
|
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 485>>465 Aug |
|
|
|
|
|
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 545>>520 Aug |
|
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 525<<520 Aug |
|
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 490<<50- Aug |
|
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 480/485 Ukraine |
|
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 710/720 |
|
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 250/260 |
|
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 290<<300 Aug |
|
|
|
|
|
It was easier to find export prices for corn byproducts this week. DDGS prices for June/July are up by about USD 5 m/t while reports show that DDGS for later in 2023 are up by about USD 10 m/t. Corn gluten meal prices continue to move a little lower as demand from the pet food industry seems to have dropped off a little.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
No news yet on the new quota for North/Central Peru – probably nothing new before late May.
There was a little more fishing in the south of Peru with the total catch now up to just under 22,000 m/t which yields close to 5,200 m/t of fishmeal. There is still 315,000 m/t left on the quota.
Presales for the next fishing season are reported to be 100/125,000 m/t booked. There is no panic about the fishing happening a little later than had been expected --- China, 85% of the market, has good fishmeal stock levels and isn't worried about new shipments --- well, not yet.
Every trade report this week is discussing El Nino with some disagreement on whether we will see a major or minor El Nino event for the rest of the year but is does now look like there will be some kind of an event that may or may not have an effect on Peru fishing later in 2023. Some say that there is an 80% chance of a moderate El Nino event before the end of the year.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,055 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,795 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,010 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,000 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,980 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65% protein standard steam | 1800/1810 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1850/1860 m/t |
|
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1900/1910 m/t | 1800/1810 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1950/1960 m/t | 1850/1860 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2000/2010 m/t | 1890/1900 |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices |
|
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 5800/5900 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.