Hammersmith Reports
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Phone : +33.6.8068.4564
Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW : hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 22, 2023
Corn prices dropped a little on Friday but were still up by about USD 9 to 10 m/t for the week. Soybeans finished the week about USD 11 m/t higher while soymeal was up USD 20 for old crop but just USD 10 to 15 MT for new crop. USA winter wheat was up strongly – up by about USD 14 m/t but had been up much more earlier in the week.
Corn prices were not as strong at the end of the week as during the week due to a little improvement in the USA drought situation. Report say that 55% of the corn crop is being affected by the drought, so we could certainly use some rain in the US corn belt.
Wheat futures prices were down strongly on Friday but still finished the week at higher levels. The wheat market had raced higher when Russia backed out of the Black Sea agreement but, as usual, prices were pushed too high by panic buying --- until Friday when futures traders cashed in much of the early week profits.
There were comments in trade reports that if there are only minor problems in shipping from Ukraine ports then prices could move lower, but we will have to wait and see.
Soybeans, like corn, are fighting the US drought and the longer the weather stays burning hot and bone dry then the higher prices will go. Reports say that up to 50% of the soybean crop has been affected by the drought bringing a lot of concern to what the US soybean crop yields will actually be.
Between the USA drought and the Black Sea problems, it is expected that there will be lots of volatility in the markets in the coming days or week.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $25.00 | Steady |
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| $25.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $27.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $27.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $28.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $31.00 | Steady |
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| $42.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $46.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US Gulf China: Panamax | $45.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | No info |
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| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $26.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW China: Panamax | $25.00 | Steady |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $52.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $61.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $82.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $58.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to China: Panamax | $42.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $43.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $57.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $59.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $51.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $58.00 | Up 1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $50.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to China: Panamax | $34.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $35.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $49.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $67.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $63.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea freight
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $45 Ukraine $57 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | Russia $60 Ukraine $77 |
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| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $36 Ukraine $56 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $17 Russia $47 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $15 Russia $41 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $38 Russia $67 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia $32 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $23 Russia $49 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $22 Russia $48 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia $53 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $24 Russia $50 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $37 Russia $62 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $14 Russia $40 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 |
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| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $34.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $60.00 | Down $7.00 |
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| Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady |
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| Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $63.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 978 | Down 112 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index | 1442 | Down 213 |
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| Baltic Panamax Index | 924 | Down 171 |
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| Baltic Supramax Index | 758 | Up 15 |
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| Baltic Handisize Index | 400 | Down 9 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1290 | Up 20 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2023/October 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 269<<297 Nov |
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| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 350<<370 Nov |
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| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 215/220 |
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| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 230/235 |
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| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 235/240 |
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| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 247/250 |
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| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 330/335 |
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| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 205/210 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 235/238 |
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| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 240/245 |
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| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 200/210 |
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| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 230/235 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 235/240 |
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| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 265/270 |
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| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 220/225 |
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| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 230/235 |
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| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 245/248 |
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| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 215/220 |
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| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 210/215 |
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| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 200/205 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 265/270 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 270/275 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 515>>490 Oct |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 545>>520 Oct |
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| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 510>>490 Oct |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 520/525 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 475>>485 Oct |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 590>>545 Oct |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 555<<560 Oct |
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| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 535<<550 Oct |
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| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 500/510 Ukraine |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 250/255 |
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| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 270/275 |
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Corn co-products moved higher again this week as both corn and soymeal prices were stronger. Supplies of all co-products are reported to be good in the US but export shipping positions are said to be difficult to find which is moving export prices higher.
Accurate corn gluten meal FOB USA prices have been difficult to find but CNF prices to most export destinations are indicated about USD 20 m/t higher. As an indication, CGM to Egypt in container is now at just under USD 800 m/t up from about USD 770/780 last week.
As long as corn and protein meals keep moving higher there is little chance that there will be any weakness in co-product prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The new fishing quota for the Southern region of Peru still has not been announced. It is now about 3 weeks late, as the fishing season is normally July 01 to December 31.
There is still a lot of speculation that there may be a very short, 10 to 15 day, central/north fishing season but as usual this is all just guesses by the trade and the "experts". The Peru government is supposed to make an announcement on fishing next week.
Fishmeal prices in China just keep moving higher as supply moves lower and alternate supplies are hard to find. Super prime fishmeal ex-port in China is said to be at about $2,600 m/t, as reported by MSI-Ceres.
There were comments in trade reports this week that there is concern over a possible El Nino hitting the late 2023 Peru fishing season ---- this would be a disaster for the industry after missing the mid-2023 fishing season.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,290 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,900 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,090 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,090 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,215 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein standard steam | No prices |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | No prices |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | No prices | 2200/2220 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | No prices | 2250/2770 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | No prices | 2300/2320 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,500/5,600 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 8,000/8,100 | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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