Hammersmith Reports
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 15, 2023
Corn prices were up by about USD 8 m/t with soybeans up by USD 20+. Soymeal went up by about USD 20 to 23 m/t. while on the wheat side, spring wheat was up by USD 13 m/t with US winter wheat up by about USD 5 m/t.
US corn prices seemed to be higher due to the feeling that the USDA numbers are not right and that corn production and yields will not reach the USDA projection levels. There is also concern that the Black Sea grain corridor may not be renewed which would take a lot of Ukraine corn out of the picture and probably move prices higher.
Soybeans and soymeal were still following the WASDE projections higher and the doubt that the current weather in the USA would allow the yields that the USDA is forecasting. Some trade services mentioned that there seems to be room for new crop soybean prices to move another USD 35 m/t higher as possible crop yields look to be slipping.
Most of the activity in wheat prices was due to the Black Sea situation and the expectation that Russia may not agree to an extension of the existing program. However, some experts feel that Russia will agree to an extension, but they are looking to get something in return – like reopening the SWIFT banking system for Russian banks.
The majority of experts seem to be looking for higher prices going in to next week. Why not, as there seems to be little reason this week for lower prices.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $25.00 | Steady |
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| $25.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $28.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $28.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $29.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $31.00 | Steady |
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| $42.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $47.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US Gulf China: Panamax | $46.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | No info |
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| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $26.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW China: Panamax | $25.00 | Steady |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $52.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $61.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $82.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $64.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $57.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to China: Panamax | $43.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $44.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $56.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $58.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $51.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $57.00 | Up 1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $50.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to China: Panamax | $35.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $36.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $49.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $67.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $63.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea freight
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $45 Ukraine $57 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | Russia $62 Ukraine $77 |
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| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $36 Ukraine $56 | Corrected |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $17 Russia $30 Ukraine | Corrected |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $16 Russia $41 Ukraine | Corrected |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $38 Russia $60 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia $32 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $23 Russia $49 Ukraine | Corrected |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $22 Russia $48 Ukraine | Corrected |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia $53 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $24 Russia $49 Ukraine | Corrected |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $39 Russia $53 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $14 Russia $40 Ukraine | Corrected |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 |
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| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $35.00 | Corrected |
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| Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $67.00 | Up $4.00 |
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| Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady |
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| Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $65.00 | Up $3.00 |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1090 | Up 81 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index | 1655 | Up 133 |
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| Baltic Panamax Index | 1095 | Up 111 |
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| Baltic Supramax Index | 743 | Up 19 |
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| Baltic Handisize Index | 409 | Down 15 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1270 | Down 20 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2023/October 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 254<<289 Nov |
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| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 341<<360 Nov |
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| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 210/215 |
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| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 230/235 |
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| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 225/230 |
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| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 255/258 |
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| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 330/335 |
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| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 215/220 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 240/243 |
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| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 230/235 |
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| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 175/180 |
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| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 225/230 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 230>>225 Oct |
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| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 250/255 |
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| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 215>>210 Oct |
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| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 225/230 |
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| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 243/245 |
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| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 215>>210 Oct |
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| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 210/215 |
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| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/195 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 260/270 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 280>>260 Sep |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 495>>485 Oct |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 525>>515 Oct |
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| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 485>>475 Oct |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | No prices |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 480>>470 Oct |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 580>>530 Oct |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 570<<580 Oct |
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| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 525<<545 Oct |
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| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 475/480 Ukraine |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 230/235 |
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| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 260/270 |
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Corn co-product prices were steady-to-higher for export from the US this week as increased corn and soymeal prices coupled with lower ethanol production to move prices up. There were also comments in the trade that export container positions have become very difficult to find, which is adding to price strength and pushing possible shipment dates into later months.
With soymeal prices up by USD 20 m/t and corn up by at least USD 8 m/t there seems to be no reason to expect lower prices.
It has also been said that fishmeal buyers have moved into other proteins, like corn gluten meal due to the total lack of fishmeal supply.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The existing quota for the southern region of Peru has expired and a new quota has not been announced yet. The new quota should be from July 01 to December 31. There is also nothing new on the possibility of a reopening of the north/central Peru fishing season.
Prices for fishmeal in China continue to move higher as the stocks on hand level drops. Super prime prices in China re said to be at USD 2550 to 2600 m/t with standard grade 65 protein seen at USD 2350 to 2375 m/t.
According to comments by MSI Ceres there looks to be very little chance that there will be a July/August fishing season due to spawning beginning in August.
Other than having no income, the big concern for the Peru fishmeal industry is that people who have depended on Peru fishmeal for feed rations will find protein alternatives that will reduce future demand for fishmeal. This change in demand for fishmeal certainly happened years ago in the poultry feed business and could happen in other feed sectors.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,240 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,900 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,090 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,090 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,160 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein standard steam | No prices |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | No prices |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | No prices | 2200/2220 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | No prices | 2250/2770 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | No prices | 2300/2320 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,500/5,600 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 8,000/8,100 | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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