Hammersmith Reports
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT July 08, 2023
Most US grain prices were lower on Friday due to better weather forecasts, but corn tried to stay steady as the demand for corn from the ethanol business in the US remains very strong. Ethanol production is at the highest level seen in several months. US corn exports are not as good as forecasted which will put pressure on export prices as the US tries to compete against Brazil and Ukraine corn in international markets.
Soybeans and soymeal moved lower with forecasts for improved rainfall in the US. Reports say that new sales of the next crop of soybeans is weighing on the market. Heavy farmer selling seems to be the pattern for the moment. New crop US soybeans were down by about USD 6 m/t while soymeal was down by close to USD 12 m/t.
Wheat will benefit from the latest rainfall but this week both US hard red winter and spring wheat moved higher in total on the week – although prices did drop on Friday but not enough to cover the earlier rally. HRW wheat was up by USD 7 on the full week with spring wheat up by USD 10 m/t. Everyone is just waiting to see what Monday's crop condition report has to say about wheat.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $25.00 | Down $1.00 |
| $25.00 | Down $1.00 | |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $27.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $27.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $28.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $30.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $31.00 | Down $1.00 |
| $42.00 | Down $2.00 | |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $33.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $46.00 | Down $3.00 |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $45.00 | Down $3.00 |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $28.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $26.00 | Steady |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $25.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $52.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $61.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $82.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $56.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $42.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $43.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $55.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $57.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $51.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $56.00 | Up 1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $50.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $34.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $35.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $49.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | $67.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $63.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea freight
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $49 Ukraine $58 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | Russia $62 Ukraine $67 |
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| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $47 Ukraine $60 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $19 Russia $43 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $20 Russia $34 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $38 Russia $60 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia $32 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $29 Russia $39 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $28 Russia $38 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia $53 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $30 Russia $40 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $39 Russia $53 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $20 Russia $30 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 |
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| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $23.00 | Steady |
| Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $63.00 | Steady |
| Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady |
| Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $65.00 | Up $3.00 |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1009 | Down 82 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1522 | Down 182 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 984 | Down 46 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 724 | Down 25 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 424 | Down 22 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1290 | Up 13 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2023/October 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 258<<280 Oct |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 345<<366 Oct |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 210/215 |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 230/235 |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 230/235 |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 249/252 |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 330/335 |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 215/220 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 233/236 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 235/240 |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 180/185 |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 225/230 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 215/220 |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 245/250 |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 210>>200 Oct |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 215>>210 Oct |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 268/271 |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 215>>210 Oct |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 210/215 |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/195 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 260/270 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 285>>250 Sep |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 465/470 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 495/500 |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 455/460 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 490/495 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 450/455 |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 575>>520 Oct |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 570>>565 Oct |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 510<<525 Oct |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 475/480 Ukraine |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 670/680 |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 240/245 |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 270>>260 Oct |
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DDGS prices were a little lower in the USA this week due mainly to the ups and downs in corn prices and the weakness seen in soymeal. DDGS supplies are said to be very good because of large ethanol production and this could push DDGS price lower in coming days.
Corn gluten meal and feed were both steady but there seemed to be quite a range of prices around the levels listed above. The complication with export CGM is that, as most goes in containers, there seems to be a lack of container loading positions through the end of August which could push CNF prices higher.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
About the only news for Peru fishmeal this week are the continued rumors that we will have a restarted fishing season before the end of July --- still just all guess work. According to news stories and government press releases there seem to be a number of ongoing studies of biomass. No one seems to be too sure exactly what research is being done and what it might say.
Peru's fishmeal exports to the end of June were at 415,000 m/t with 334,000 m/t going to China. The top four destinations for Peru fishmeal – China, Ecuador, Germany and Japan represent 95% of all Peru fishmeal exports.
From the trade, it is reported that China's fishmeal stocks continue to drop as the China prices rally. China is going to suffer some from the loss of new Peru fishmeal supplies. All the current stocks on hand in China, about 210,000 m/t, are said to be sold to local buyers. Not any expectations that fishmeal prices in China will move lower --- jut higher and higher.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,225 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,830 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,065 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,065 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,115 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein standard steam | 1850/1860 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1900/1910 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1950/1960 m/t | 2120/2140 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2000/2010 m/t | 2150/2170 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2050/2060 m/t | 2220/2210 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,500/5,600 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 6,000/6,100 | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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