Hammersmith Reports
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Phone: +33.6.8068.4564
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 04, 2023
As usual, soybeans and soymeal moved higher again this week while both corn and wheat finished the week with mainly unchanged prices. Friday was a strong day for futures prices for corn, soybeans and soymeal while wheat finished a quiet week.
Soymeal export demand was the major factor in the soybean/soymeal rally. Soymeal just seems to want to move higher everyday as demand just keeps on coming. Soymeal sales by the US are up by over 40%. Market experts say that there wasn't any good reason for the rally in soybeans/soymeal since everyone knew about the export sales. Some say the rally could have been due to too much wet weather in Brazil.
Corn prices may be affected by the wet weather in Brazil as the corn crop yields could be affected. However, most experts don't see a major rally for corn prices and just expect prices to be in a trading range for a bit.
Wheat prices in the US were all quite steady on the week with no major news to move prices. There was a comment in trade reports that commercial interests are very long wheat which could mean a price rally may appear as the commercials always seem to have a good idea of what the market is doing.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $28.00 | Steady |
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| $28.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $35.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $36.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $36.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $37.00 | Steady |
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| $42.00 | Steady |
| |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $38.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $56.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US Gulf China: Panamax | $55.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $29.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US PNW China: Panamax | $28.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $57.00 | Down $4.00 |
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| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $66.00 | Down $4.00 |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $82.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $23.00 | Down $3.00 |
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| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $61.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to China: Panamax | $48.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $49.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $49.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $35.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $60.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $62.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $55.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $35.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $61.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $47.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to China: Panamax | $41.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $37.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $62.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $37.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $57.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea freight
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $57 Russia | Ukraine $57 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $77 |
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| Black Sea to Bangladesh: Panamax | $35 Russia | Ukraine $56 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $20 Russia | Ukraine $41 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $20 Russia | Ukraine $30 |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $46 Russia | Ukraine $61 |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia | Ukraine $40 |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $27 Russia | Ukraine $48 |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $26 Russia | Ukraine $47 |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $28 Russia | Ukraine $49 |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $45 Russia | Ukraine $71 |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia | Ukraine $40 |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 |
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| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $30.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady |
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| Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady |
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| Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $78.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1462 | Down 101 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index | 2133 | Down 93 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1448 | Down 147 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1101 | Down 83 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 634 | Down 37 | X |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1167 | Up 73 | x |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2023/January 2024
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 245<<255 Feb |
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| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 290<<295 Feb |
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| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 178<<183 Feb |
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| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 225/230 |
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| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 245/250 |
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| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 251<<257 Feb |
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| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 250<<260 Feb |
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| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 215/220 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 225/228 |
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| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 225/235 |
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| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 175/180 |
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| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 255/260 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 215/220 |
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| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 235/240 |
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| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 215/220 |
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| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 220/225 |
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| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 225/228 |
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| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 210/215 |
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| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 205/210 |
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| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 160/165 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 285/290 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 271<<278 Feb |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 535>>505 Feb |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 565>>535 Feb |
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| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 540>>490 Feb |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 545/550 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 510>>480 Feb |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 517>>514 Feb |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 550>>490 Feb |
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| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 530>>500 Feb |
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| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 700/705 |
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| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 255/260 |
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| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 275>>265 Feb |
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USA domestic DDGS prices moved higher this week due to good demand for winter feed and higher railway freight rates. DDGS export prices in NOLA were almost USD 15 m/t higher with container shipments said to also be up by USD 15. Export prices for both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed moved higher on the week, both pushed higher by increased US internal freight costs.
Soymeal prices were also higher which does add upward pressure to both DDGS and CGM prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
Total catch is now up to 312,000 m/t which leaves 1,370,000 m/t to go on the quota.
The fishing situation in Peru has been complicated by labor unrest and a short term strike by the wooden hulled "Viking" fleet. The owners of the Viking vessels have a long list of complaints and concerns that they want addressed by IMARPE.
There have been a number of mini bans in Peru due to the high juvenile fish in some areas.
Everyone is still talking about the El Nino possibility and the effect that it could have but it looks like the next El Nino could be in mid-2024 ---- nothing to worry about for this fishing season.
Fishmeal prices in China are reported to be moving a little lower, especially for the lower grades as stocks are high and usage is low. Due to the high stocks pressure on prices in China is expected at least until the end of 2023.
No new sales activity reported in Peru as both buyers and sellers wait to se how the fishing proceeds.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,160 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,855 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,145 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,145 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,040 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein standard steam | 2250/2270 |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 2300/2320 |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 2350/2370 | 2000/2020 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2400/2420 | 2050/2070 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2450.2470 | 2100/2120 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,200/5,300 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 9,200+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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