Hammersmith Reports
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 18, 2023
Other than the drop in wheat prices this week it looked much like a quiet week.
The weakness in wheat prices is related to forecasted high supplies of wheat in most exporting countries --- all forecasters are suggesting very high world wheat stock levels. Improved weather in the US also helped to move US wheat prices lower. Exports are of the opinion that US wheat prices could continue to be lower.
Corn prices in the US didn’t do much this week. US domestic corn demand is very good – especially for ethanol and feed use. Some exports were saying that corn could be at its low for the year with a good chance that the next few weeks will see higher corn prices.
Like corn, soybeans and soymeal didn’t see too much exciting price action this week. Soybean exports hit a one week record level but thought of the massive Brazil crop kept US prices from rallying. There were some comments this week that the Brazil weather needs to be watched closely and that soybeans could get back to moving higher in the next few weeks.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $29.00 | Up $1.00 | |
$29.00 | Up $1.00 | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $36.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $36.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $37.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $37.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $38.00 | Up $1.00 | |
$42.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $39.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $57.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $56.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $30.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $29.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $60.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $69.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $82.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $64.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $60.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $49.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $50.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Up $3.00 | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Up $3.00 | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $59.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $61.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Up $3.00 | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $60.00 | Down $3.00 | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $50.00 | Up $3.00 | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $41.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $41.00 | Up $3.00 | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $49.00 | Up $3.00 | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $66.00 | Up $3.00 | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $41.00 | Up $3.00 | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $60.00 | Up $3.00 | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $58 Russia | Ukraine $57 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Bangladesh: Panamax | $35 Russia | Ukraine $56 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $22 Russia | Ukraine $41 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $22 Russia | Ukraine $30 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $48 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia | Ukraine $38 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $48 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $28 Russia | Ukraine $47 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $48 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $44 Russia | Ukraine $71 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $28.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $78.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1820 | Up 177 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 2763 | Up 174 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1874 | Up 344 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1205 | Up 80 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 599 | Up 4 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 1157 | Down 60 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2023/February 2024
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 240<<245 Mar | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 275<<288 Mar | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 195<<200 Feb | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 235/240 | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 250<<255 Mar | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 246<<257 Mar | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 240<<250 Mar | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 225/230 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 227/230 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 225/235 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 175/180 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 255/260 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 210<<220 Mar | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 230<<240 Mar | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 210/215 | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 220>>210 Mar | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 229/232 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 210/215 | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 210/220 | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 175/180 | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 280/285 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 271/277 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 560>>515 Mar | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 590>>545 Mar | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 540>>475 Mar | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 585/590 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 530>>475 Mar | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 515<<525 Mar | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 550>>480 Mar | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 530>>490 Mar | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 715/720 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 250/255 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 280>>265 Mar | |
Strong demand in the USA has pushed DDGS prices higher once again. Export prices are said to be up by USD 6 to 10 m/t for DDGS.
Corn gluten meal too has shown an increase in prices this week as, much like DDGS, domestic demand in the USA is pushing prices higher.
With very little happening to corn, soybean and soymeal prices this week it has been demand that is moving prices up.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
Total Peru catch now is up to 741,000 m/t – 167,000 m/t of fishmeal and 3,800 m/t of fishoil. The remaining quota is now at 941,000 m/t.
Fishing in the North/Central region has been going quite well but there are concerns that the juvenile level is still high which could bring an end to the fishing season. Juveniles in some major fishing areas have been between 55 and 60% of the catch.
Most trade reports are still almost totally occupied with long term El Nino prospects. Seems that there is not much else to talk about. However, the numbers do show that the chances of a strong El Nino have increased which could have a major effect on the next fishing season.
So, if El Nino is coming, should we all stock up on fishmeal this fishing season.
Prices in China are said to be dropping but prices in Peru are steady with not too much buying interest seen. However, trade reports feel that with good fishing and no buying there could be a drop in fishmeal prices coming.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,110 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,880 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,155 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,155 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,025 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1800/1820 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1950/1970 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 2000/2020 | 2000/2020 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2050/2070 | 2050/2070 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2150/2170 | 2100/2120 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,100/5,200 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 10,000+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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