Hammersmith Reports
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 11, 2023
There was not a huge change in prices this week as a result of the latest USDA WASDE report. Corn prices were seen to be about USD 5 lower on the week with soybeans almost unchanged while soymeal moved another USD 7 higher for nearby positions but only steady for positions into 2024. Most US wheat prices were unchanged during the week.
This week's WASDE report didn't seem to have much effect on the grain/oilseed markets. Experts say that the report was a little bullish, but this did not cause much, if any, reaction in market prices.
US corn prices are at their lows and can now compete with Brazil in most export markets. Looking at prices from most trade services there is only a dollar or two spread between USA corn and Brazilian. It is expected that the port loading reports will start to show more US corn exports to markets that had been lost to Brazil – at least for 2 or 3 months.
Soybeans didn't have much news on the week, so prices didn't get too excited, but we are still in a soybean/soymeal bull market. There is some concern about the Brazil soybean crop while the soymeal exports from Argentina have not been great – both factors that can keep the bull market rolling along.
And to finish off, nothing to say about US wheat other than there is some French wheat sneaking into the US and that the recent rejected Polish wheat shipment looks to be about to be cleared --- it is being cleaned to get rid of the small amount of (not allowed) corn mixed in.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $28.00 | Steady |
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| $28.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $35.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $36.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $36.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $37.00 | Steady |
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| $42.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $38.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $56.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf China: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $29.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW China: Panamax | $28.00 | Steady |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $60.00 | Up $3.00 |
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| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $69.00 | Up $3.00 |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $82.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $63.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Argentina to China: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $49.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $50.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $36.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $62.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $64.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $36.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $63.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $47.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to China: Panamax | $41.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $38.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $63.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $38.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $57.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea freight
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $58 Russia | Ukraine $57 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $77 |
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| Black Sea to Bangladesh: Panamax | $35 Russia | Ukraine $56 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $21 Russia | Ukraine $41 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $21 Russia | Ukraine $30 |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $48 Russia | Ukraine $61 |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia | Ukraine $40 |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $48 |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $28 Russia | Ukraine $47 |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $30 Russia | Ukraine $48 |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $44 Russia | Ukraine $71 |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia | Ukraine $40 |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 |
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| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $30.00 | Steady |
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| Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady |
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| Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady |
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| Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $77.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1643 | Up 181 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index | 2589 | Up 456 |
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| Baltic Panamax Index | 1530 | Up 82 |
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| Baltic Supramax Index | 1125 | Up 24 |
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| Baltic Handisize Index | 594 | Down 40 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1217 | Up 50 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2023/January 2024
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 248<<257 Feb |
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| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 290<<295 Feb |
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| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 188<<193 Feb |
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| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 230/235 |
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| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 248<<255 Feb |
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| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 250<<259 Feb |
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| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 245<<250 Feb |
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| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 220/225 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 225/228 |
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| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 225/235 |
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| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 175/180 |
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| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 250/255 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 210/215 |
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| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 235/240 |
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| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 210/215 |
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| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 215/220 |
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| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 225/228 |
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| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 210/215 |
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| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 215/220 |
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| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 167/172 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 280/285 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 280/285 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 545>>505 Feb |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 575>>535 Feb |
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| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 535>>490 Feb |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 570/575 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 520>>485 Feb |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 525>>520 Feb |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 550>>485 Feb |
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| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 525>>490 Feb |
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| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 690/695 |
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| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 250/255 |
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| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 280>>275 Feb |
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USA domestic DDGS prices have increased again this week as local rail transportation cost continue higher. Nearby prices for DDGS FOB NOLA were reported by the US Grains Council to be up by $13 m/t. The same price increase was seen in CNF export prices. Just FYI, the US has exported 8.1 million m/t of DDGS up to the end of September, while it is down by about 6% from 2022, it is still an impressive number.
Prices for both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed were almost unchanged on the week with some sources saying prices were in an up $5 m/t down $5 m/t trading range.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
Total catch is now up to 546,000 m/t, yielding 123,000 m/t of fishmeal and leaving 1.14 million m/t on the quota.
Prices have appeared for the new fishmeal supply and have dropped considerably from the previous price levels. Market reports say that about 30,000 m/t of new production has been sold. Much of the new sales was said to be for standard grade levels.
Fishmeal import estimates by China for 2023 have been increased by 100,000 m/t to 1.5 million m/t but are still below the 2022 numbers of 1.8 million m/t, which is down by 16%.
MSI Ceres commented that the "modest" year end fishing quota could help with biomass levels for 2024 fishing seasons.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,145 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,865 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,155 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,155 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,065 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein standard steam | 1800/1820 |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1950/1970 |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 2000/2020 | 2000/2020 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2050/2070 | 2050/2070 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2150/2170 | 2100/2120 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,200/5,300 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 9,200+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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