Saturday, January 04, 2025

Weekly Report ---- January 04, 2025

 

     Hammersmith Reports

 

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- January 04, 2025

 

And here we are with the first report of 2025 --- we are hoping for a calmer, quieter and more peaceful world in 2025 --- fingers crossed.

 

Although there were lots of ups and downs in prices since the last report on December 21, the prices as the weeks finished were not particularly different overall. Corn prices were almost unchanged while soybeans were down by about USD 4 m/t and soymeal unchanged. US winter wheat was down by USD 2 m/t since the last report but US spring wheat was down by about USD 5 m/t.

 

Grain prices had moved higher during the last 14 days but did have a down day last Friday as the markets were not impressed by the US export sales numbers. Friday saw corn futures down by about USD 4 m/t with soybeans down by USD 7 on the day and US winter wheat down by about USD 5 m/t --- Friday was certainly a down day. The question is “will the lower prices continue a trend into next week.” Will the strong US dollar keep downward pressure on grain/oilseed export prices?

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$22.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$22.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$30.00

Down $3.00

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$30.00

Down $3.00

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$31.00

Down $3.00

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$42.00

Steady

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$43.00

Steady

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$36.00

Steady

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$44.00

Steady

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

US Gulf India : Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$41.00

Up $3.00

US Gulf China: Panamax

$40.00

Up $3.00

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$44.00

Down $3.00

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$24.00

Up $2.00

US PNW China: Panamax

$23.00

Up $2.00

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$51.00

Steady

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$57.00

Steady

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$32.00

Steady

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$70.00

Steady

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

France/Germany to Jordan

$42.00

Steady

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$31.00

Steady

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$34.00

Steady

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to China: Panamax

$36.00

Steady

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$25.00

Down $1.00

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$45.00

Steady

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$63.00

Steady

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Steady

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$55.00

Down $2.00

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$25.00

Down $1.00

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$40.00

Steady

Brazil to China: Panamax

$34.00

Down $1.00

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$35.00

Down $1.00

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$41.00

Down $1.00

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$51.00

Steady

 

 

 

South Africa to Italy -- Handisize

$46.00

Steady

South Africa to Turkey – Handisize

$47.00

Steady

South Africa to Japan – Handisize

$43.00

Steady

South Africa to China -- Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$34 Russia

Ukraine $50

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$51 Russia

Ukraine $65

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$15 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$16 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$32 Russia

Ukraine $61

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$27 Russia

Ukraine $23

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$25 Russia

Ukraine $40

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$24 Russia

Ukraine $39

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $51

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$25 Russia

Ukraine $40

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$38 Russia

Ukraine $70

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$15 Russia

Ukraine $25

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$55 Russia

 

Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi

 

Ukraine $45

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$24.00

Down $3.00

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$38.00

Down $4.00

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

1072

 

Baltic Capesize Index

1375

 

Baltic Panamax Index

1040

 

Baltic Supramax Index

884

 

Baltic Handisize Index

549

 

 

 

 

Freightos/Baltic Container Index

4259

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2025/March 2025

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 229<<232 Apr

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 237<<241 Apr   

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 230<<235 Apr

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 235<<240 Apr 

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 235<<240 Apr   

   Wheat, Superior, France

USD 244<<247 Apr      

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 230<<235 Apr

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 225/230      

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 225/230

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 210/215

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 220/225 Apr

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 230/235

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 208 flat to Apr 

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 223 flat to Apr  

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 215>>210 Apr  

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 225>>220 Apr

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 218/221 Spot

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 210<<215 Apr

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 215<<220 Apr

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 215<<220 Apr

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 260/270

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 225 flat to Apr

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 350<<360 Apr  

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 375<<385 Apr  

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 335<<345 Apr     

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

USD 385/390 spot

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 325<<335 Apr 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 395<<400 Apr

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 390>>380 Apr

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 375>>365 Apr

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 365<<375 Apr

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 580/590

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 215/220

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 215 flat to Apr 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

Total North/Central Peru landings are now at 2.036 million m/t which leaves 474,000 m/t on the quota --- fishmeal production is estimated at 456,000 m/t and fishoil at 56,900 m/t.

 

The new fishing quota for the South of Peru has been set at 251,000 m/t and will be open until the end of June 2025. Fishing began on January 02, 2025.

 

Peru fishmeal export sales are reported to be at about 470,000 m/t at the end of December 2024.

 

There is still a lot of discussion on whether the full North/Central quota will be landed ---- according to information from MSI Ceres the January catch has only reached the 474,000 m/t level three times in the past 10 years and once at 460,000 m/t. Still, there does look to be a chance.

 

Business is expected to go quiet shortly as China will start its New Year holidays on January 28 ending on February 04. Major buyers will be out of the market for a few days.

 

China’s fishmeal imports for 2024 are estimated to be at 2.47 million m/t which is up by almost 20% over 2023.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

1,590

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

1,980

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

1,540

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,660

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

2,020

 

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1350/1370

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1420/1440

 

   67n% protein 120 TVN

1470/1490

1470/1490

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1520/1540

1520/1540

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1570/1590

1570/1590

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

3000/3100

2500/2600

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

4500/5250

No prices

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2025 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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