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Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- January 11, 2025
It was USDA WASDE week this week and there were some surprises. US corn yields were lowered which is moving production lower for 2024/25 which could bring 2024/25 corn production in lower than last year. US soybean yields were also lowered dropping production a little from December report but still higher on the year versus 2023/24. US winter wheat plantings are above what the trade had expected by about 2%.
US corn futures prices were up by about USD 8 m/t as the week ended with soybean futures up by USD 11 m/t and soymeal up by at least USD 10 m/t. US hard red winter wheat was up by almost USD 5 m/t with US spring wheat up by about USD 3 m/t.
US corn prices were at the highest level since last June with some experts feeling that corn prices could now be moving higher. US soybean export business is lower than expected for the week but 2024/25 is still above 2023/24 export levels. There wasn’t much exciting news for US wheat this week – exports were disappointing, although wheat exports for 2024/25 are moderately up on 2023/24.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
$22.00 | Steady | |
$22.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $30.00 | Steady |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $31.00 | Steady |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $42.00 | Steady |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $43.00 | Steady |
$36.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $44.00 | Steady |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
US Gulf India : Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $46.00 | Up $5.00 |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $45.00 | Up $5.00 |
US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama | $41.00 | Down $3.00 |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $27.00 | Up $3.00 |
US PNW China: Panamax | $26.00 | Up $3.00 |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | Closed | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | Closed | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $32.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $70.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Jordan | $42.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $31.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $34.00 | Steady |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $36.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $23.00 | Down $2.00 |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $45.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $58.00 | Steady |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $55.00 | Steady |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $23.00 | Down $2.00 |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $40.00 | Steady |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $35.00 | Up $1.00 |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $36.00 | Up $1.00 |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $39.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $64.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $41.00 | Steady |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $51.00 | Steady |
South Africa to Italy -- Handisize | $46.00 | Steady |
South Africa to Turkey – Handisize | $47.00 | Steady |
South Africa to Japan – Handisize | $43.00 | Steady |
South Africa to China -- Handisize | $43.00 | Steady |
Black Sea freight | ||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $34 Russia | Ukraine $50 |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $50 Russia | Ukraine $65 |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $15 Russia | Ukraine $28 |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $16 Russia | Ukraine $28 |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $32 Russia | Ukraine $61 |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $27 Russia | Ukraine $23 |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $25 Russia | Ukraine $40 |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $24 Russia | Ukraine $39 |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $51 |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $25 Russia | Ukraine $40 |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $38 Russia | Ukraine $70 |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $15 Russia | Ukraine $24 |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $55 Russia | |
Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi | Ukraine $45 | |
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $24.00 | Steady |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $38.00 | Steady |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | No info | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | No info | |
Baltic Dry Index | 1048 | Down 24 |
Baltic Capesize Index | 1448 | Up 73 |
Baltic Panamax Index | 953 | Down 87 |
Baltic Supramax Index | 819 | Down 65 |
Baltic Handisize Index | 508 | Down 41 |
Freightos/Baltic Container Index | 4336 | Up 77 |
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2025/March 2025
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 230 flat Apr |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 240<<245 Apr |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 230<<235 Apr |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 235<<240 Apr |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 235<<240 Apr |
Wheat, Superior, France | USD 240<<243 Apr |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 225<<235 Apr |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 225/230 |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 215/220 |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 210/215 |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 220/225 |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 225/230 |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 210 flat to Apr |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 225 flat to Apr |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 215>>205 Apr |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 225 flat to Apr |
Corn, FOB France | USD 222/225 Spot |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 210<<220 Apr |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 215<<220 Apr |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 215<<220 Apr |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 260/270 |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 235 flat to Apr |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 335<<345 Apr |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 360<<370 Apr |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 325 flat to Apr |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 370/375 spot |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 320<<325 Apr |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 405 flat to Apr |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 400>>385 Apr |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 375<<385 Apr |
Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 375<<385 Apr |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 570/580 |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 215/220 |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 220 flat to Apr |
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
Fishing in the North/Central region of Peru has reached 2.17 million m/t leaving 337,000 m/t to go to full quota and 21 days to do it. Landing the full quota is looking more possible every day. Fishing on the new quota in the South region has reached 13,500 m/t which leaves close to 237,000 m/t to quota.
Some trade publications feel that the quota will not be finished due to the spawning season and the expected increase in juvenile fish which will lead to more mini-bans and possibly an end to fishing.
Very little market activity this week as buyers seem to be well covered while sellers don’t have a great deal on hand for sale. However, if fishing stays reasonable, we could see more buying interest but probably at lower price levels. Super prime and prime prices are expected to stay firm due to the lower supply and higher buying interest --- lower grade prices could slide a little.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Standard Herring | 64% protein | 1,590 |
Danish standard fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,980 |
Peru fishmeal | 65% protein | 1,540 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,660 |
Iceland fishmeal | 71% protein | 2,020 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1350/1370 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1420/1440 | |
67n% protein 120 TVN | 1470/1490 | 1470/1490 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1520/1540 | 1520/1540 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1570/1590 | 1570/1590 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | 3000/3100 | 2500/2600 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 4500/5250 | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2025 Wayne S. Bacon
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