Saturday, January 11, 2025

Weekly Report --- January 11, 2025

 

 

     Hammersmith Reports

 

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- January 11, 2025

 

It was USDA WASDE week this week and there were some surprises. US corn yields were lowered which is moving production lower for 2024/25 which could bring 2024/25 corn production in lower than last year. US soybean yields were also lowered dropping production a little from December report but still higher on the year versus 2023/24. US winter wheat plantings are above what the trade had expected by about 2%.

 

US corn futures prices were up by about USD 8 m/t as the week ended with soybean futures up by USD 11 m/t and soymeal up by at least USD 10 m/t. US hard red winter wheat was up by almost USD 5 m/t with US spring wheat up by about USD 3 m/t.

 

US corn prices were at the highest level since last June with some experts feeling that corn prices could now be moving higher. US soybean export business is lower than expected for the week but 2024/25 is still above 2023/24 export levels. There wasn’t much exciting news for US wheat this week – exports were disappointing, although wheat exports for 2024/25 are moderately up on 2023/24.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$22.00

Steady

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$22.00

Steady

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$30.00

Steady

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$30.00

Steady

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$31.00

Steady

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$42.00

Steady

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$43.00

Steady

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$36.00

Steady

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$44.00

Steady

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

US Gulf India : Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$46.00

Up $5.00

US Gulf China: Panamax

$45.00

Up $5.00

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$41.00

Down $3.00

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$27.00

Up $3.00

US PNW China: Panamax

$26.00

Up $3.00

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

Closed

 

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

Closed

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$32.00

Steady

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$70.00

Steady

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

France/Germany to Jordan

$42.00

Steady

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$31.00

Steady

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$34.00

Steady

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to China: Panamax

$36.00

Steady

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$23.00

Down $2.00

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$45.00

Steady

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$63.00

Steady

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Steady

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$55.00

Steady

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$23.00

Down $2.00

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$40.00

Steady

Brazil to China: Panamax

$35.00

Up $1.00

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$36.00

Up $1.00

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$41.00

Steady

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$51.00

Steady

 

 

 

South Africa to Italy -- Handisize

$46.00

Steady

South Africa to Turkey – Handisize

$47.00

Steady

South Africa to Japan – Handisize

$43.00

Steady

South Africa to China -- Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$34 Russia

Ukraine $50

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$50 Russia

Ukraine $65

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$15 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$16 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$32 Russia

Ukraine $61

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$27 Russia

Ukraine $23

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$25 Russia

Ukraine $40

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$24 Russia

Ukraine $39

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $51

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$25 Russia

Ukraine $40

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$38 Russia

Ukraine $70

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$15 Russia

Ukraine $24

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$55 Russia

 

Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi

 

Ukraine $45

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$24.00

Steady

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$38.00

Steady

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

1048

Down 24

Baltic Capesize Index

1448

Up 73

Baltic Panamax Index

953

Down 87

Baltic Supramax Index

819

Down 65

Baltic Handisize Index

508

Down 41

 

 

 

Freightos/Baltic Container Index

4336

Up 77

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2025/March 2025

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 230 flat Apr

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 240<<245 Apr   

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 230<<235 Apr

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 235<<240 Apr 

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 235<<240 Apr   

   Wheat, Superior, France

USD 240<<243 Apr      

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 225<<235 Apr

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 225/230      

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 215/220

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 210/215

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 220/225

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 225/230

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 210 flat to Apr 

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 225 flat to Apr  

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 215>>205 Apr  

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 225 flat to Apr

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 222/225 Spot

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 210<<220 Apr

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 215<<220 Apr

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 215<<220 Apr

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 260/270

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 235 flat to Apr

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 335<<345 Apr  

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 360<<370 Apr  

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 325 flat to Apr     

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

USD 370/375 spot

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 320<<325 Apr 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 405 flat to Apr

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 400>>385 Apr

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 375<<385 Apr

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 375<<385 Apr

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 570/580

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 215/220

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 220 flat to Apr 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

Fishing in the North/Central region of Peru has reached 2.17 million m/t leaving 337,000 m/t to go to full quota and 21 days to do it. Landing the full quota is looking more possible every day. Fishing on the new quota in the South region has reached 13,500 m/t which leaves close to 237,000 m/t to quota.

 

Some trade publications feel that the quota will not be finished due to the spawning season and the expected increase in juvenile fish which will lead to more mini-bans and possibly an end to fishing.

 

Very little market activity this week as buyers seem to be well covered while sellers don’t have a great deal on hand for sale. However, if fishing stays reasonable, we could see more buying interest but probably at lower price levels. Super prime and prime prices are expected to stay firm due to the lower supply and higher buying interest --- lower grade prices could slide a little.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

1,590

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

1,980

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

1,540

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,660

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

2,020

 

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1350/1370

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1420/1440

 

   67n% protein 120 TVN

1470/1490

1470/1490

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1520/1540

1520/1540

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1570/1590

1570/1590

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

3000/3100

2500/2600

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

4500/5250

No prices

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2025 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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