Saturday, January 25, 2025

Weekly Report --- January 25, 2025

 

 

 

     Hammersmith Reports

 

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT -- January 25, 2025

 

The commodity week ended with prices for grains and oilseeds falling on Friday after showing some strength during the week.

 

US corn prices ended almost unchanged on the week when Friday’s price weakness overwhelmed the week’s earlier gains. The week’s corn exports were very good and marketing year to date exports are above last year. Reports say that corn futures open interest is at the highest level in 3 years with the number of longs also at about a three year high. It looks like lots of folks expect higher corn prices in days to come.

 

US soybean prices were up by USD 9 m/t on the week and would have been higher except for market weakness on Friday. The expected very large Brazil soybean crop is certainly helping to keep the market from moving higher. The week’s export sales were good and marketing YTD exports are above last year. It is difficult to know exactly where soybean prices will go in coming weeks. USA soymeal prices were up by about USD 10 m/t for the week.

 

All US wheat prices slipped lower on Friday but most remained a little higher on the week. Friday’s weakness is said to be a result of Argentina reducing its export taxes on grains. Wheat export for the week were not all that great although the marketing year exports are still above last year.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$22.00

Steady

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$22.00

Steady

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$28.00

Down $2.00

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$28.00

Down $2.00

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$29.00

Down $2.00

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$42.00

Steady

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$43.00

Steady

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$34.00

Down $2.00

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$44.00

Steady

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

US Gulf India : Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$45.00

Down $1.00

US Gulf China: Panamax

$44.00

Down $1.00

US PNW Egypt: Panamax via Panama

$39.00

Down $2.00

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$27.00

Steady

US PNW China: Panamax

$26.00

Steady

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

Closed

 

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

Closed

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$32.00

Steady

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$70.00

Steady

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$36.00

Up $2.00

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$37.00

Steady

France/Germany to Jordan

$42.00

Steady

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$31.00

Steady

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$36.00

Up $2.00

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to China: Panamax

$34.00

Steady

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Steady

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$22.00

Down $1.00

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$45.00

Steady

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$46.00

Steady

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$63.00

Steady

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$58.00

Steady

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$55.00

Steady

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$22.00

Down $1.00

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$46.00

Steady

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$40.00

Steady

Brazil to China: Panamax

$33.00

Down $2.00

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$34.00

Down $2.00

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Steady

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$40.00

Down $1.00

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$49.00

Down $2.00

 

 

 

South Africa to Italy -- Handisize

$46.00

Steady

South Africa to Turkey – Handisize

$47.00

Steady

South Africa to Japan – Handisize

$43.00

Steady

South Africa to China -- Handisize

$43.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$33 Russia

Ukraine $50

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$50 Russia

Ukraine $65

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$14 Russia

Ukraine $29

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$14 Russia

Ukraine $28

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$32 Russia

Ukraine $61

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$27 Russia

Ukraine $22

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$25 Russia

Ukraine $40

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$24 Russia

Ukraine $39

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $51

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$25 Russia

Ukraine $40

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$39 Russia

Ukraine $70

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$15 Russia

Ukraine $23

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$55 Russia

 

Black Sea to Nigeria – Handi

 

Ukraine $45

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$22.00

Down $2.00

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$34.00

Down $4.00

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

No info

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

778

 

Baltic Capesize Index

983

 

Baltic Panamax Index

774

 

Baltic Supramax Index

639

 

Baltic Handisize Index

411

 

 

 

 

Freightos/Baltic Container Index

3652

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR February 2025/April 2025

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 235<<240 May

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 245<<250 May   

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 230<<235 May

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 235<<240 May

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 240<<245 May   

   Wheat, Superior, France

USD 243<<248 May      

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 225<<235 May

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 225/230      

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 225/230

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 220/225

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 230/235

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 230/235

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 220 flat to May 

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 235 flat to May  

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 230>>220 May  

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 230<<235 May

   Corn, FOB France

 USD 230/233 Spot

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 215<<225 May

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 220<<230 May

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 225<<230 May

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 260/270

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 245 flat to May

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 330<<340 May  

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 355<<365 May  

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 330 flat to May     

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

USD 380/385 spot

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 320<<330 May 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 420 flat to May

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 410>>395 May

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 385<<395 May

   Soybeans, Black Sea

USD 395<<400 May

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 560/570

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 200/205

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 215 flat to May 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

Fishing in the North/Central region of Peru is now almost over, by government order, with the total catch reaching 2.411million m/t --- 96.1% of the total quota --- total catch will increase as the final numbers filter in. Fishmeal production is said to be at about 539,000 m/t with fish oil production at 72,500 m/t.

 

Fishing in the South region continues with the catch now at 44,700 m/t which will yield about 10,000 m/t of fishmeal. 206,300 m/t remain on the South quota. The South quota is open until June 30, 2025.

 

According to trade reports the North/Central fishing season was the best seen since 2020.

 

Peru fishmeal export sales are steady at 500,000 m/t  which won’t leave very much fishmeal available for new sales. Chinese New Year is very close (begins January 29) so business will certainly slow down or stop for a few days.

 

So now should we all start to speculate about the next Peru fishing season.

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Standard Herring

64% protein

1,595

Danish standard fishmeal

71% protein

1,965

Peru fishmeal

65% protein

1,560

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,685

Iceland fishmeal

71% protein

1,995

 

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1350/1370

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1420/1440

 

   67n% protein 120 TVN

1470/1490

1470/1490

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1520/1540

1520/1540

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1570/1590

1570/1590

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

3000/3100

2500/2600

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

4500/5250

No prices

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2025 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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