Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 02, 2013
(a Bahamas Corporation)
France: Rep. Office: 33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: 33.6.8068.4564 Fax: 33.4.5774.7575
13-220 Quartier La Galine, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Coming to you this week from Toronto in the snow and cold – I am certainly not used to this kind of weather these days – after 20 years in hot places this is quite a shock.
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
This was quite a strong week for old crop corn prices as they raced ahead by about USD 5 m/t over new crop prices – both new and old were up on the week but old crop rallied by USD 13 m/t and new crop by USD 8 m/t. Of course, as the old crop supplies run down it is natural for prices to move higher. Looking at the new crop corn on can see that the December 2013 futures are at least USD 60 m/t lower than the current corn prices – just shows you where everyone thinks that the physical price will be later in the year.
On the other hand, December 2013 is a long way away and, as we all know, it does not take much to turn a very good crop year into a very bad one. Today everything looks good for an almost record corn crop – I wonder how it will look in three months.
One comment on corn shipments out of South America – it looks like Brazil is experiencing its normal yearly delays in their export ports and this will help keep the nearby corn prices quite strong but has no effect on the long term prices.
If you look at the end of the week prices for soybeans and soymeal it looks like it was a quiet week – not so, as we had some very strong up and down days during the week. The Brazil delays are keeping prices firm for the next few weeks shipment period – according to trade reports the loading delays in Brazil could be as long as 60 days – that is a pile of extra cost for shippers.
Soybean prices were down on Friday due mainly to good weather reports out of Argentina but it is expected that the nearby prices will remain quite firm as prices a little further out could show some weakness. But all this depends on the weather in Argentina and the delays in Brazil and then on planting intentions in the USA
FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 287>>278 |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 323/325 |
| Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro | USD no availability |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 324/326 |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, Necochea port | USD 350/360 Mar/May |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 315/320 |
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 289/291 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, Necochea port | USD 290/300 Mar/May |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea | USD 315/320 |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 335/340 |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 31>>300 Mar>>May |
| Corn, FOB Argentina ----- spot price | USD 280/282 Feb/Mar |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 274>>265 Apr/Jun |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port ----- spot price | USD 283/285 Feb/Mar |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 260>>246 July/Aug |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea | USD 285/298 |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 295/297 |
| Sorghum, Black Sea | USD n/a |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free | USD 306/308 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free | USD asked 227/bid 220 Apr/June |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 526/528 March |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 549/552 March |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 544>>480 Mar/>>/J/J |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 498>>453 March/>>/J/J |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 546>>475 Mar/>>/J/J |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 453>>447 May/>>J/J |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 550/555 |
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 278/280 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 695/700 m/t |
| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 344>>338 m/t Mar>>May |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asian ports | USD 400>>391 m/t |
DDGS prices for nearby moved higher this week as they followed what corn was doing. According to trade sources the domestic DDGS supply should increase in coming weeks as some facilities are coming back on line. DDGS prices are lower for later delivery both due to more supply but also the fact that April/May corn costs are lower than the spot prices.
There still appears to be quite a bit of export buying interest in more distant months as buyers are looking at lower prices pushed down by weaker world corn prices. Nearby international buyers are just buying for shorter-term need as they expect prices to slide lower.
Corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed took a little jump higher this week – mainly just following the price of corn to higher levels. Export demand for CGM remains good but then it almost always is good while corn gluten feed exports are dragging along behind. We will see the latest monthly USDA information next week on by-products imports and it will be interesting to see how CGF is doing.
And prices, well, with corn looking lower in coming weeks, it is expected that corn by-products will also move lower.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 690/710 CNF Asia |
| Brazil Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia |
| Europe Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein | USD 750/790 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM , 45 protein | USD 690/710 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM, 50 protein | USD 730/750 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian Feathermeal | USD 760/780 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Feathermeal, 80 protein | USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Poultry Meal, feed grade | USD 740/750 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 1150/1200 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade | USD 980/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 500/530 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 700/720 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 580/600 m/t |
Animal protein prices were stronger in all markets this week as prices tried to catch up with what has happened in soymeal in the past couple of weeks --- on the USA domestic side of things it looks like the price for MBM may be topping off as it is a tad too expensive versus soymeal but in Asia this is not true as prices remain strong and supply, at least from Australia and New Zealand, is harder to find.
There have been quite a few people contacting us this week about low cost MBM but, as usual, everyone seems to have price ideas USD 20 to 30 m/t below actual market prices.
From Vietnam we have seen some problems with buyers not able to open letters of credit for purchases or asking to split shipments into smaller lots so they can open smaller letters of credit. Looks like it will take a while for the Vietnam import and banking situation to be solved.
As to prices – feathermeal and poultry meal look to be able to move higher but MBM may be at the top, unless we get another rally higher in soymeal.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There was some business done in Peru this week and the available stock of fishmeal is down to almost nothing – prices are also all over the place with producers getting lower prices for some grades and higher for others as they use up all the remaining stocks on the ground. So we now have about two months to go before there is any new fishmeal in Peru and the first bits of business are surfacing for the new season – this should start to build in coming weeks as buyers look to cover some 2013 needs.
Nothing new on the Peru quota for the next fishing season – just all the normal speculations, rumours and guesses – no one know what the government will do.
Probably the biggest news in Peru was the offers by Asian companies to purchase Diamante and Copeinca – Diamante from South Korea and Copeinca from China. According to trade reports, the owners of Diamante are not too interested in selling but Copeinca could be another story --- but then, as usual, it will probably all come down to the value put on the companies and if it looks like a decent deal for the shareholders. Also, what it does show is that fishmeal production ownership is of significant interest and value in world markets and as long as fishmeal can still be produced there are going to be buyers for the supply and now, it seems, lots of investors.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
| | |
| FAQ basis 65 protein | 1600/1630 m/t |
| 65/66 pro standard steam | 1650/1670 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1700/1720 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1850/1900 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 2020/2050 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2070/2080 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2100/2130 m/t |
| | |
| Fish oil .. crude bulk | 2500/2600 |
| Fish oil – crude drums | 2600/2650 |
| Fish oil – flexitank | 2550/2650 |
| Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA | 2800/3000 |
| | |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon
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