Weekly Report -- Mar 09, 2013

 

 

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd  - Grain Trading

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   March 09, 2013

                                                       (a Bahamas Corporation)

 

France:  Rep. Office: 33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: 33.6.8068.4564    Fax: 33.4.5774.7575

13-220 Quartier La Galine, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com       SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

  

SECTION 1:  FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

 The USDA WASDE report was issued on Friday and in advance of the report most experts had not been expecting nay major surprises – and they were correct as surprises were at a minimum.  With some jiggling on corn exports and corn feed use the ending stocks stayed about the same and the story was about the same for soybeans with just some adjustments with ending stocks remaining the same.  Now we can all wait in anticipation of the planting intentions report at the end of March which should give everyone a good idea what is going to happen to supply later in the year.

 

Looking at the current corn situation, there is still strength in the old crop corn versus the new as supplies are tight and usage is not down.  Some experts are saying that we could have as much as a 50 percent premium for May corn versus December corn – that is a lot of premium and shows how tight the current USA corn market is.

 

So for now it seems that nearby corn prices should be steady to higher

 

With soybeans and the WASDE report, there are quite a few experts who say that the USDA has their numbers wrong and that export demand is going to be much higher than the current USDA forecast and that ending stocks are going to have to tumble.  Of course, we have the quarterly stock report also being issued at the end of March and if this shows higher than expected soybean stocks then perhaps the USDA ideas are correct. But that seems to be next to impossible as so far this year, six months of crop year, we have shipped 96 percent of the total estimated exports and one doubts that exports will just stop once we do 4 percent more.

 

Soybeans, like corn, look to be moving higher in coming weeks.

 

   

FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 282>>270 Mar/July
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 315/317
Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro	USD 305/315
Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port	USD 314/316
Wheat, milling, Argentina, Necochea port	USD 340/350 Mar/May
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 300/305
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 282/284
Barley, feed, Argentina, Necochea port	USD 285/290 Mar/May
Barley, feed, Black Sea	USD 315/320
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 335/340

 

 

Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD  310>>291 Mar>>May
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD  268>>258  Apr/May/Jun
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD  243>>231  July/Aug/Sep
Corn, FOB Black Sea	USD  278/283
Corn, FOB France	USD  291/300
Sorghum, Black Sea	USD  n/a
Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free	USD  310/312
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free	USD  asked 228/bid 220 Apr/June

 

 

Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD  534/537  March
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD  559/562 March
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD  544>>480 Mar/>>/J/J
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD  498>>453  March/>>/J/J
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD  530>>475 Mar/>>/J/J
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD  456>>449  May/>>J/J
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD  575/580

 

Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t

 

Corn Gluten Feed,  USA FOB NOLA	USD   265/268 m/t
Corn Gluten Meal,  USA FOB NOLA	USD   670/680 m/t
DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   339>>336 m/t Mar>>May
DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asian ports	USD   409>>394 m/t

 

There was some trade talk in the USA this week about wheat replacing both corn and DDGS in animal feed rations but most experts feel that this will only be a regional situation where soft wheat is in plentiful supply at low cost.  The advantage that DDGS could have is the protein content and once that is factored in the DDGS could be more attractive than a wheat/soymeal blend.  But with soft wheat from the USA selling at USD 60 to 70 m/t less than DDGS, it is very sure that export buyers are looking closely at the nutritional comparison between wheat and DDGS.

 

Export buyers in some markets are also still concerned about the falling fat level in DDGS as the ethanol producers get better and better at extracting the last drop of corn oil from the process. In many markets the higher oil DDGS is an advantage --- if one thinks back a ways, there was a push to sell high oil corn to the feed market as it was a feed ingredient with an advantage – now we are seeing DDGS with lower and lower levels of fat/oil but no decrease in price.  It is true that as the oil content drops the protein percentage does move higher but this is all mathematics and not of too much value to feed producers who want a higher fat DDGS.

 

DDGS prices are still strong in nearby positions but there are several dollars per m/t in savings if buyers can book a few weeks further out.

 

Corn gluten feed and meal prices didn't do too much this week but both did move a little lower in line with the corn prices for a few weeks out.     

 

 

USA Exports – January 2013 – in m/t – major destinations

 

Country	Corn Gluten Feed	Corn Gluten Meal	Distillers Dried Grains -- DDGS	Soymeal
Australia				41,400
Canada	3,600	4,400	52,000	77,300
Chile		17,700	5,400
China			108,200
Columbia	2,400	4,000	9,500	60,400
Cuba				51,100
Denmark				95,300
Egypt		16,100	14,800	65,100
Indonesia		12,800	25,100
Ireland	32,000		26,100
Italy				52,500
Japan			25,000
Malaysia		3,600	11,100
Mexico		5,500	114,100	58,500
Morocco	13,500		11,500	36,500
Poland				113,500
South Korea			23,100
Taiwan		2,800	21,200
Thailand			22,700
Turkey	9,000		55,500	152,500
Venezuela				78,000
Vietnam			26,500	20,866

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 690/710  CNF Asia
Brazil Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein	USD   no prices   CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia
Europe Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein	USD   no prices CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein	USD 730/760 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM , 45 protein	USD 690/710 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM, 50 protein	USD 730/750 m/t CNF Asia
Australian Feathermeal	USD 760/780 m/t CNF Asia
USA Feathermeal, 80 protein	USD 900/920 m/t CNF Asia
USA Poultry Meal, feed grade	USD 770/780 m/t CNF Asia
USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 1200/1250 m/t CNF Asia
Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade	USD 980/1020 m/t CNF Asia

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein	USD  500/530 m/t
Feathermeal  80 protein USA	USD  710/720 m/t
Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA	USD  580/600 m/t

 

There was only a little change in animal protein prices this week but more could be expected for next week if the vegetable protein prices remain strong  -- soymeal was up by close to USD 10 m/t this week but this increase was not seen in animal protein prices.

 

Export demand for MBM has been quite good from Asia, well Indonesia mainly, and it is reported that prices from both Australia and New Zealand are higher for MBM to Asian destinations – as usual a matter of too much demand and too little supply.

 

Lots of inquiries from Vietnam and Bangladesh about low cost meat and bone meal but there does not seem to be too much business being done unless the buyers are able to raise their bids to get at least close to what exporters want.

 

It is expected that if soymeal prices continue to move higher then this should allow MBM to move higher too, especially for export.

 

 

USA Exports – January 2013 – in m/t – major destinations

 

Country	Feathermeal	Meat and Bone Meal: Includes pork and poultry
Canada		2,800
Chile	4,300
China		1,900
Germany	1,300
Guatemala		1,300
Indonesia	6,900	3,100
Mexico		4,500
Philippines		4,100
Thailand		2,100

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Not much new to say about Peruvian fishmeal this week.  Anything that can be said about the next fishing season is just speculation and no one really expects any reasonable idea on the new quota before April with fishing expected to be May/June/July or perhaps starting in late April.  A number of people think that the next season may see the same pattern as the last season with the quota divided into three fishing periods rather than just one big three month quota.  This would make sense if the government feels that the method worked well for November/December and then January fishing.

 

It was interesting to see in the MSI Ceres report this week that the top seven companies account for about 60 percent of the fishing quota and then buy in another 28 percent of supplies to give them a total of about 87.5 percent of the total available catch.  Tasa and Copeinca are the largest share followed by Diamante and Exalmar with Austral, Hayduk and CFG rounding out the majors list.

 

There was a little business this week but mainly in the high-end grades and mostly for China.  Speaking of China, the trade reports that there has been some decent volume booked from northern Europe to China for the coming aquafeed season and this may cut into Peru export business a little but then if the quota is low the buyers are making the right decision in buying from other origins.

 

As to prices, little to report since there is little left to sell but some traders say that the Super-prime price has moved higher due to good demand and little or no supply.  When there is so little available for sale it is difficult to get a good price picture.

   

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port
FAQ basis 65 protein	1600/1630 m/t
65/66 pro standard steam	1650/1670 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1700/1720 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1850/1900 m/t
67 protein SD 120 TVN	2020/2050 m/t
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	2070/2080 m/t
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	2100/2130 m/t
Fish oil .. crude bulk	2500/2600
Fish oil – crude drums	2600/2650
Fish oil – flexitank	2550/2650
Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA	2800/3000

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

Wayne Bacon

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete.  Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy.  All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates