Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 23, 2013
(a Bahamas Corporation)
France: Rep. Office: 33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: 33.6.8068.4564 Fax: 33.4.5774.7575
13-220 Quartier La Galine, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Corn prices in the USA were up a little on the week, even with Friday being a little lower than the earlier part of the week. There were reports of increased farmer selling of cash corn in the US and this has helped to reduce the corn basis in the country and drop the FOB export values a little – even with the futures higher.
This coming Thursday we will see both the Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks reports issued which will probably mean that prices for the early part of the week will be very volatile as everyone tries to get in a safe buying or selling position in advance of the reports.
There have been some comments in the trade that corn stocks will be lower than expected and that prices will take a good jump but then this is all just anticipation and could be incorrect. None-the- less, next week will be interesting, exciting, volatile and dangerous.
It was interesting to see this week that the total export levels for the Ukraine have been bumped higher again and could get very close to 25 million m/t, about 15 million m/t of corn, 7.5 million m/t of wheat and over 2 million m/t of barley. It seems that, for many corn-importing countries, Ukraine corn remains the most competitive.
Soybeans were up a little on the week while soymeal was about steady as a result of lower soymeal prices on Friday after Thursday's rally. As with corn, there seems to be an increased level of farmer selling of soybeans in the cash market, pushing the basis a tad lower.
Soybeans too are going to see an interesting week next week with the two USDA reports due, possible strikes at Brazil ports, rains in Argentina and Brazil. Old crop soybean prices are still at a very significant premium to new crop and with few soybeans actually getting shipped out of Brazil the high prices are staying for longer than everyone had expected. New crop soybeans futures are close to USD 50 m/t lower than May futures and this change is reflected in cash prices in South America but with few soybeans actually getting loaded and shipped the large drop in prices has not as yet reached the market – but it will.
FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 296>>288 Mar/July |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 327329 |
| Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro | USD 305/315 |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 322/324 |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 325/340 Mar/May |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 301/305 |
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 288/290 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 275/285 Mar/May |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea | USD 315/320 |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 350/355 |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 312>>305 Mar>>May |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 270>>265 Apr/May/Jun |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 245>>236 July/Aug/Sep |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea | USD 285/288 |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 302/304 |
| Sorghum, Black Sea | USD n/a |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free | USD 320/322 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free | USD asked 240/bid 230 Apr/June |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 517/521 March |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 547/551 March |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 530>>471 Spot/>>/J/J/A |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 470>>448 Apr/>>/J/J/A |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 510>>462 Spot/>>/J/J/A |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 456>>440 May/>>J/J/A |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 585/590 |
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 250/255 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 670/680 m/t |
| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 328>>325 m/t Mar>>May |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asian ports | USD 397>>394 m/t |
DDGS prices in the USA slide quite a bit lower this week as the supply seems to be catching up with the demand. Ethanol production in the US is a little stronger and the result is more DDGS in the market. However, with nearby corn selling at a premium to corn a little further out then we should see an inverse in DDGS prices with the June/July selling at a discount to the spot – of course the problem is that the producers are not all that certain what corn prices will be doing out a few weeks so are not too excited about selling future delivery.
There are some stories from Asia that DDGS is currently too expensive for some buyers and that there are other local alternatives that can compete better – perhaps corn and soymeal from South America. Chinese buying of DDGS has been quite good so they must find it to be cost effective.
Corn gluten feed prices slid a little lower this week but corn gluten meal prices were steady as strong protein prices kept CGM up. Once we get past the short term squeeze on soybean supply and see some weakness in soybean and soymeal prices then we should see the same in both corn gluten meal and DDGS prices.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 690/710 CNF Asia |
| Brazil Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia |
| Europe Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein | USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM , 45 protein | USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM, 50 protein | USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian Feathermeal | USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Feathermeal, 80 protein | USD 920/930 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Poultry Meal, feed grade | USD 760/775 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 1220/1250 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade | USD 1050/1100 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 520/540 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 710/730 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 600/620 m/t |
Animal protein traders have been saying that the price of meat and bone meal could be due for a drop as prices are now running at a premium to soymeal rather than a discount as was seen in the market in past weeks. USA feed producers are not going to pay a premium for MBM for long as they can quickly switch to other lower cost protein ingredients. For export buyers the situation is not the same, as they need to buy far in advance and cant quickly change supply from MBM to soymeal or other vegetable proteins.
While domestic MBM prices in the USA were lower this week the export prices were steady and both feathermeal and poultry meal seemed to be in a narrow trading range – up USD 10 one week then down USD 10 the next. Good demand in the USA and export is keeping prices balanced with supply and most trade experts are not looking for any weakness in feathermeal and poultry meal.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Ah business in fishmeal seems very quiet at present – at least in Peru. While there is still some old stock business being done, there is just not enough inventory to support and serious buying interest. There also has not been any big jump by buyers into the new season fishmeal but if the rumours on the expected quota are anywhere close to accurate then buyers should be booking what they can at today's prices as supplies look to be very limited from Peru.
Of course, with European fishmeal production being priced at lower levels than Peruvian, there is more buying interest in northern Europe rather than in Peru and Chile but, for buyers of significant volume, they are never going to get all the fishmeal needs covered in Europe and will have to be back in South America for supply.
The industry arguments in Peru between the fishing companies and the government go on, week after week after week but with the government in control of the quotas and the fishing laws it seem most likely that the government holds the winning hand in the long run. As mentioned before, the Peruvian government would much rather see an expansion of the fishing for food rather than a growing fishmeal industry. It certainly seems to make sense to produce as much food as possible while still protecting the basic fish supply but fishmeal production and sale is a major industry in Peru, one that has grown and modernized and improved – it is not an industry that should be stifled or penalized by the government of Peru. And on the economic side, fishmeal exports are a tremendous export money earning industry for the country and one that has a large base of employees in Peru.
Now as to the new fishing season – no word as yet on the quota but now almost every expert seems to be looking at a greatly reduced fishing quota for the upcoming season but also, as pointed out by MSI Ceres in their weekly report, low quotas in 2012/2013 should result in bumper fish supply for the next year.
The government, it seems, is not all wrong: reduced fishing this year could have long-term benefit for fish stocks and may ultimately be a help to the industry in Peru.
And then there are prices --- certainly not lower, unless the new quota comes in higher than everyone expects.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
| | |
| FAQ basis 65 protein | 1600/1630 m/t |
| 65/66 pro standard steam | 1650/1670 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1700/1720 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1850/1900 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 2050/2070 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2070/2080 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2100/2130 m/t |
| | |
| Fish oil .. crude bulk | 2500/2600 |
| Fish oil – crude drums | 2600/2650 |
| Fish oil – flexitank | 2550/2650 |
| Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA | 2800/3000 |
| | |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.