Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT January 17, 2015
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Monday the 19th is a holiday in the USA with futures markets, banks and businesses closed for the day.
Well now, after the USDA WASDE report on Monday we had a week where everything moved lower in price, some much more than others. Looking at US futures market one sees that corn was down by about USD 5.50 m/t, soybeans down by USD 22.00 m/t, soymeal also down about USD 22.00 m/t, soft red winter wheat down by USD 12 m/t and hard red winter wheat down by just about USD 10 m/t -- although, most grains and oilseeds tried to move up a little on Friday with little success.
While all these decreases in the futures market did not translate exactly into the cash export market we did see all US export prices slip lower on the week. The futures market was dropping but the export premium was a little stronger so cash export prices were not nearly as weak as futures.
It is interesting that the WASDE report was felt by most experts to be neutral for corn and even though the US yield was adjusted lower the world corn situation is still one of large crops and good supply almost everywhere. Right after the WASDE was issued there were a number of experts saying that corn prices could move another USD 15 m/t lower. So, with the USD 5 m/t drop this week we are on our way lower…or so it seems.
With the WASDE report showing higher crops for the USA and Brazil it is certainly easy to understand why beans and meal were so weak. And then, China cancelled some US soybean orders and that helped to keep prices weak. Add to that the good weather forecasts for Argentina and Brazil and there seems to be no reason at all for beans and meal to have much strength.
A couple of experts are saying that soybean prices will continue weak and that we could see a drop of another USD 30 m/t over the next few months …. They base much of this on the assumption that USA soybean plantings will increase while corn plantings will drop.
As things stand today there does not seem to be much reason to expect any serious rally in prices for corn, soybeans and soymeal.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $15.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000 | $48/49.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $52/53.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $31/32.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $41.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $3.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $41/42.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to China | $30/32.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: coaster | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $25/26.00 | steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 741 | up 32 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 620 | up 309 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 759 | Down 5 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 716 | Down 84 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 418 | Down 28 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 707 | Down 27 | x |
*** see sources note
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR JAN 2015/APRIL 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 245>>241 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 262/264 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 237/243 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 264/268 | X |
| Wheat, Romania | USD no prices | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen | USD 235/238 | X |
| Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen | USD 224/227 | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 245/255 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 212/220 | x |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD 170/175 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 212/217 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 220>>210 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 220/227 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 250/255 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 180/182 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 190/192 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 192/196 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 180/184 | X |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/197 | X |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 182/186 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 182/186 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 253/258 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 200/205 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 470/485 | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 520/530 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 455>>440 | X |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 405/415 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 445>>435 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 390>>410 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 620/630 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 415/425 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 385>>376 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 400>>395 | X |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 430>>420 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 390/400 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 750/755 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 185/190 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 270/275 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 315/320 m/t | x |
*** see sources note
Trade reports say that there is increased demand for DDGS export in the US Gulf and that FOB vessel prices are being pushed higher by demand. Most DDGS exporters are sold out for export shipment into March so spot price probably mean very little as there is nothing much to ship. Once you get out past March there is a little more flexibility in the export pricing as there is still DDGS to be bought. The big question on DDGS is what will the Chinese do and will the US be overwhelmed with export business once the Chinese New Year period is over (Chinese New Year falls on February 19th but some holidays begin about a week earlier depending on the country – the New Year will be the Year of the Goat….or the Sheep).
On either item to consider with DDGS is the drop in crude oil prices and the effect that this could have on ethanol production. Ethanol stocks in the US are growing and margins are dropping so production could shrink a tad which will also reduce the supply of DDGS (since much of it is an ethanol byproduct) and keep prices firm.
There is quite a wide range on export price indications for both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed this week. For CGM there seem to be price ideas from USD 730 m/t to just over USD 750 m/t while for CGF the low seen is about USD 160 with the high as much as USD 190…..on can probably assume that the actual export prices is somewhere near the middle of the wide price range.
With corn, soybean and soymeal prices continuing to move lower it is going to be difficult for corn co-products to keep from following to lower levels.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia | x x |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia | X |
| European MBM 45 protein European MBM 50 protein European Feathermeal, 75 protein European poultry meal, pet food | USD 385/405 m/t CNF Asia USD 425/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia USD 1050/10700 m/t CNF Asia | X x x x |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 610/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia USD 1070/1100 m/t CNF Asia | X x x x |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 590/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 740/760 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 1080/1150 m/t CNF Asia Very wide range in price | x x x x |
*** see sources note
USA domestic and export prices were mainly unchanged on the week with not much excitement seen in the market. However, as soymeal continues to move lower there is going to be more and more pressure on animal protein prices as US buyers are just not going to pay a serious premium over soymeal for MBM. There is also the situation in the market that US domestic poultry meal prices are softening which will be seen in the export market in coming days.
It is reported in the trade that domestic prices for MBM in both New Zealand and Australia are a little higher this week but this has not as yet been seen in the export market where Asia prices are quite steady. There has not been a great deal of new business this week since most buyers seem to be covered into March.
The bans in some countries on US poultry products, including poultry meal and feathermeal, will increase demand on other origins and could result in higher prices in Asia while prices in the US will be softening due to the drop in export demand. Some traders are saying that prices in the US for domestic delivery are being quoted at levels about USD 50 m/t lower.
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 440/450 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 640/660 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 490/500 m/t |
| Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro | USD 780/800 m/t |
*** see sources note
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
It was interesting to see the drop in fishmeal prices in Peru this week, which according to MSI Ceres was due to bearish sentiment related to the changes in rules for the southern Peru quota. However, as they point out, getting fishmeal from the south into a position for export is not always and easy task since there is very little (or no) container service from southern ports. It is actually much easier to do bulk fishmeal shipment than bags in containers. So, does having some fishmeal in the south in coming weeks mean that the price should be going lower….probably not. Also from MSI Ceres is the information that in both 2013 and 2014 the catch in the south was less than 10,000 m/t for the first three months of the year. Could it be better this year…perhaps, but only some actual fishing will tell.
The IFFO numbers this month were interesting in that they show 2014 fishing catch worldwide is only down by about 7.6% on 2013 and while Peru landings were down 38% other areas were up strongly: Chile up 385, Denmark/Norway up 30%, South Africa up 37%. Total fishmeal production 11 months of 2014 was down by almost 11% with Peru being down by 39.2%. Total world fishmeal production is said to be at about 1.85 million m/t January to November 2014.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 2,030 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,735 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 2,150 |
| Chile fishmeal | 65 protein | 2,250 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 2,020 |
@Commodity3
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1900/1950 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 2040/2060 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 2080/2100 m/t |
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| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 2200/2220 m/t | 2100/2130 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 2300/2320 m/t | 2200/2250 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2330/2350 m/t | 2300/2320 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2350/2380 m/t | 2380/2400 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2500/2550 | 1950/2000 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2600/2650 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2550/2600 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2900/3000 |
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*** see sources note
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
*** sources for information for the Weekly Report:
US Grains Council --- www.grains.org, International Grains Council – www.igc.int
US Wheat -- www.uswheat.org , France Agrimer – www.franceagrimer.fr
EU DG Agri -- ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm, Commodity 3 -- http://www.commodity3.com/
Newedge Group -- www.newedge.com, The Jacobsen Report -- https://www.thejacobsen.com
MSI Ceres Peru -- http://www.msiceres.com, International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru.
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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