Weekly report Jan 25, 2015

 

Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   January 25, 2015

 

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

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SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

 

It was a short week for the grain business in the US, with last Monday being a holiday. The shorter four day week didn't get too exciting, although soybeans were able to drop by USD 8 to 10 m/t while most other grains just moved up and down a tad. While, it wasn't just soybeans that dropped, as hard red winter and hard red spring wheat both slipped down by USD 4 or 5 m/t.

 

With corn prices being steady while soybeans moved lower, there was quite a bit of talk in the trade reports about farmers looking toward planting more corn than early projections had thought. Of course, as one price drops versus the other, the experts always assume a quick change in farmers planting programs – the big word here is "assume" – but then if soybeans do continue weak the experts will be rights.

 

For corn, both cash and futures prices were very steady on the week with little or no change and little excitement in the market. Some experts are saying that US farmers are holding as much corn as they can in the hopes of higher prices and this is also seen in the futures market as speculators seem to be mainly on the long side which means they see  (or hope for) higher prices for corn.

 

One effect of limited farmers selling is that export premiums have been moving higher, resulting in export buyers having to pay a tad more while futures are slipping a little. There is also a lot of talk in the market about the effect that the high US dollar may have on corn exports but with demand still quite strong and not too many other exporting countries at present the dollar value may not have a serious effect. However, once Brazil/Argentina corn comes to market we could see a different story.

 

On the soybean side of things, there was just not any news that would support prices. The South American crop situation looks great with crops at record levels and buyers looking forward to the drop in prices that will come once their crop is available. There doesn't seem to be any reason at present to expect any serious rally in soybean or soymeal prices.

 

There has also been the USDA reported cancellation of 500,000 m/t of export soybean sales in the past few weeks – most of which is expected to have moved to lower priced Brazilian beans and all of which is thought to be business from China.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$14/15.00	Down $0.50
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$29/30.00	Down $2.00	x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Down $2.00	x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$30/31.00	Down $2.00	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$51/52.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$38/39.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000	$48/49.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$36/37.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$33/34.00	Down $1.00	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$41/42.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$53/54.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$38/39.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$35/36.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$45/46.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$30/31.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t	$33/34.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$41.00	Steady	x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Steady	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Down $2.00	x
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Europe	$25/26.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$41/42.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to China	$29/30.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to East Med: coaster	$38/39.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$14/15.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$43/44.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$25/26.00	steady	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Baltic Dry Index	720	Down 21	x
Baltic Capesize Index	887	up 267	x
Baltic Panamax Index	685	Down 74	x
Baltic Supramax Index	650	Down 66	x
Baltic Handisize Index	380	Down 38	x
Bunkerworld fuel index	704	Down 3	x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR FEB 2015/APRIL 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 246>>240	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 257/260	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 242/247	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 262/267	x
Wheat, Romania	USD 260/265	x
Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen	USD 228/231	x
Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen	USD 224/227	x
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 247/255	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 218/222	x
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD 170/175	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 209/212	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 220>>200	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 210/220	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 250/255	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 181/184	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 194/197	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 188/193	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 180/184	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 180/186	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 170/176	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 178/183	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 261/264	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 200/205	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 472/487	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 530/540	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 451>>440	x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 415/425	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 446>>434	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 400/415	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD 630/635	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 403/415	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 375>>365	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 390>>385	x
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD 425>>415	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 385/395	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   770/780 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   188/192 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   270>>266 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   323>>318 m/t	x

 

I was in the middle of a discussion in London this week about exactly how much business was on the books for DDGS shipments to China. While there were varying opinions, everyone was of the opinion that a significant number of Panamax sized shipments had been booked and that container shipments of DDGS will slip to very little, at least to China. If all the business claimed to have been booked is correct then there is probably no reason to expect much in the way of price weakness for DDGS in coming weeks and perhaps months.

 

Of course, China is also the number one buyer of USA sorghum – so for both DDGS and sorghum it is really demand from China that is keeping prices up at the current levels. It will be interesting to see if China switches from US sorghum to US corn now that the GM problems have been mostly solved.

 

Corn gluten meal prices remain strong and now, with some countries banning US poultry by products, demand should continue to be very strong for CGM and there is very little reason to expect that there will be any significant price weakness.

 

And, as usual, corn gluten feed prices just chug along, following corn and not getting too excited.  

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein	USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia
European MBM 45 protein    European MBM 50 protein    European Feathermeal, 75 protein    European poultry meal, pet food	USD 385/405 m/t CNF Asia  USD 425/450 m/t CNF Asia  USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1050/10700 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia  USD 610/620 m/t CNF Asia  USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1070/1100 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 590/600 m/t CNF Asia  USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia  USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1000/1050 m/t CNF Asia  Very wide range in price

 

 

The banning of USA poultry meal and feathermeal in some parts of Asia due to avian flu in the USA is certainly having an effect on the export market and export prices. USA export poultry product prices are sliding lower quickly while demand for product from other origins is pushing prices higher from OZ/NZ. With there being such a shortage of fishmeal it is tough to also see limits on available poultry by-products. It is tough on end-users when these things all happen at the same time.

 

The domestic effect of some countries banning US poultry by-products has backed up into the domestic market, which has resulted in much weaker prices for feathermeal and all grades of poultry meal.  Feathermeal seem to have been the hardest hit with some prices said to be up to USD 100 m/t lower than last week. For anyone who can still import US feathermeal this is certainly the time to buy up a decent supply – and to take a very good look at US export poultry meal.

 

Meat and bone meal prices are steady both in world export markets and in most domestic markets with little pressure seen at present for any major change in prices.

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein	USD 440/450 m/t
Feathermeal  80 protein USA	USD 500/540 m/t
Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA	USD 490/500 m/t
Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro	USD 690/710 m/t

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

 

The Peru 2014 export details were available from several WWW sites this week and, interestingly, they show that there has been very little change in the total Peru fishmeal exports in the last year. One would probably have expected a big drop but not so as the total exports for both 2014 and 2013 were just under 850,000 m/t. However, when you look at the exports by country there are many changes: China is down by about 90,000 m/t, which is the biggest change but that drop is more than made up by increases in shipments to Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, Korea, Germany and Chile. China is still the main destination for Peruvian fishmeal but they now represent 52.5% of exports rather than the 63.1% of 2013. If you remove China from the total Asia numbers then Asia shipments are up by about 50% over 2013. All of Asia together represents just over 70% of Peruvian fishmeal exports.

 

There is very little to report from Peru as there is currently no fishing and nothing to sell. The government of Peru has set up a new agency to keep an eye on illegal fishing as it appears that some food fishing actually ends up as fishmeal – of course with today's high prices that may not be too much of a surprise.

 

MSI Ceres mentioned this week that the juvenile level in North Chile is very high and there is concern that this too will be seen in the Southern Peru fishing area.

 

The IFFO reports this week that North Atlantic fishing is down due to very bad weather and that Denmark fishmeal exports are at their lowest level ever reported, down to 157,000 m/t – of course they don't mention how long "ever" is. At the same time Norway exports are up by about 60% but, as their total exports are only 35,000 m/t, the increase is not of too significant an effect.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	2,000
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,700
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	2,140
Chile fishmeal	65 protein	2,240
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	2,030

 

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	1900/1950 m/t
65/66 protein	2040/2060 m/t
67 protein standard steam	2080/2100 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	2200/2220 m/t	2100/2130
67 protein SD 120 TVN	2300/2320 m/t	2200/2250
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	2330/2350 m/t	2300/2320
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	2350/2380 m/t	2380/2400
Fish oil, crude bulk	2500/2550	1950/2000
Fish oil, crude drums	2600/2650
Fish oil, flexi tank	2550/2600
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2900/3000

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon