Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT January 03, 2015
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
With so many holidays over the last two weeks, there has been very little news or even excitement in the grain business. Not that the entire world was closed just that all the major exporting nations were on holidays for quite a few days which greatly reduced grain tenders, port loading, new sales and general market activity.
One thing that you do find in most years is that futures prices in late December seem to jump all over on low volume and little new market news. It normally takes a few days into January to get the activity in the futures back up to normal levels and the highs and lows of the Christmas/new Year period all smoothed off.
On the cash side of things, with so many offices closed or on short staff, it is quite difficult to get accurate cash prices for many grain and feed items. Many of the folks who normally supply information are stuffed full of turkey and such or are still picking up the piles of rumpled Christmas paper from all the presents that the kids tore into.
Looking at the futures for the past week, everything was lower – corn down by USD 7 m/t, soybeans down by USD 17 m/t, soymeal down by USD 20 m/t – most wheat down by about USD 10 m/t. Of course, these are all futures prices and do not always represent cash prices. As can be seen by the prices that I show below, from various origins, weakness in the US futures is not seen in world cash markets.
On the wheat side of things, the situation with Russia is now clear except that what will happen to wheat prices and tenders after February 1st when their new export tax comes into effect is only guesswork today. As long as there are still adequate supplies of wheat from other origins than Russia then perhaps there will be little effect on prices or perhaps some wheat prices will creep up by an amount similar to the Russian export tax. We will have to wait and see.
On the corn side of things, the futures market was weak and many experts are saying that there is room for both futures and cash prices in the US to slide lower – perhaps another USD 7 to 10 m/t lower. US export sales are still quite strong as export buyers enjoy lower prices and no one seems to be expecting higher corn prices over the next few weeks.
With soybeans, all looks good in South America with little weather problem to upset the market. Experts are saying that as long as the demand for soymeal stays as strong as it is then there is little reason for soybean prices to move lower – although everyone seems to feel that they should be lower. Well, that is supply and demand for you. In futures, the investment funds are long soybeans which could make the market vulnerable to a slip lower if the funds decide to get out of their longs. However, experts seem to feel that soybeans will continue in a wide trading range until we see some major news – bad weather in Brazil or China cancelling orders or something else significant.
There are no comments this week for corn by products or animal proteins as there just doesn't seem to be anything major to be reported.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
Price change is calculated from the last report of December 21st.
| US Gulf China: Panamax(8,000 disch) | $42/43.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax(10,000 disch) | $43/44.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $15.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $34/35.00 | up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000 | $48/49.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | steady | X |
| US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t(8,000 d1sch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t(10,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $50/51.00 | down $2.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $35/36.00 | steady | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $41/42.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to China | $33/35.00 | steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: coaster | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $25/26.00 | steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $19/21.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 771 | Down 32 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 456 | Down 32 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 827 | Down 80 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 884 | Down 33 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 488 | Down 9 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 809 | Down 43 | x |
*** see sources note
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR JAN 2015/MARCH 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 269>>263 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 276/279 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 243/248 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD no prices | x |
| Wheat, Romania | USD 265/268 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen | USD 247/250 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen | USD 239/242 | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 240/248 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 215/220 | x |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD 175/185 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 221/225 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 200/210 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 225/230 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 240/245 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 190>>187 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 207>>204 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 201/205 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 190/195 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 200/204 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 187/192 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 190/195 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 264/268 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 200/205 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 495/505 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 540/550 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 475>>460 | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 446>>440 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 470>>450 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 445>>435 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 635/645 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 420/430 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 390>>380 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 425>>415 | x |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 450>>430 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 415/420 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 730/740 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 170/175 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 260/265 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 310/315 m/t | x |
*** see sources note
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia | x x |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 435/445 m/t CNF Asia | X |
| European MBM 45 protein European MBM 50 protein European Feathermeal, 75 protein European poultry meal, pet food grd | USD 385/405 m/t CNF Asia USD 425/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia USD 1050/10700 m/t CNF Asia | X x x x |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 580/590 m/t CNF Asia USD 640/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 880/890 m/t CNF Asia USD 1200/1230 m/t CNF Asia | X x x x |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 600/610 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 1100/1200 m/t CNF Asia Very wide range in price | x x x x |
*** see sources note
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 465/475 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 670/700 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 480/510 m/t |
| Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro | USD 820/840 m/t |
*** see sources note
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
As everyone had been expecting, there will be no fishing season now until next April/May. The level of juvenile fish was just too high and the overall biomass total too low. So, now we have to struggle on for three or four months with little or no Peruvian fishmeal availability.
With nothing to sell the current price for Peruvian means little, except that the European traders do have some stock which would mean there will be limited availability in Europe. However, if the prices are as shown below then few, if any, will be too interested in Peru fishmeal – unless supply from other North Atlantic origins is all consumed.
There is still a reasonable amount of fishmeal being shipped from Peru to China but this is all against old business. Unsold stocks in Peru are down to just the dregs with only the odd lot of small new business being done.
There was a study published a week or so ago that stated that increased amino acids with vegetable proteins can replace fishmeal for weanling pigs at a considerable cost saving with no nutritional effect on the pigs.
And, there was a report on work being done at Iowa State University to develop a corn/soy based fish feed that would not use fishmeal or fishoil. However, non-fishmeal/fishoil feeds don't seem to be as effective with carnivorous fish species – they don't care much for veggies.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 2,100 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,795 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 2,300 |
| Chile fishmeal | 65 protein | 2,350 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 2,050 |
@Commodity3
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
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| 65 protein | 2000/2050 m/t |
| 65/66 protein | 2050/2100 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 2100/2150 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 2200/2220 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 2340/2360 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2360/2380 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2400/2420 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2500/2550 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2600/2650 |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2550/2600 |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3000/3100 |
*** see sources note
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
*** sources for information for the Weekly Report:
US Grains Council --- www.grains.org, International Grains Council – www.igc.int
US Wheat -- www.uswheat.org , France Agrimer – www.franceagrimer.fr
EU DG Agri -- ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm, Commodity 3 -- http://www.commodity3.com/
Newedge Group -- www.newedge.com, The Jacobsen Report -- https://www.thejacobsen.com
MSI Ceres Peru -- http://www.msiceres.com, International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru.
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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