Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT January 10, 2015
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
So, Monday is the day for the next slug of reports from the USDA. Many experts are saying that the USDA is likely to reduce the average crop yields and the acreage and there is some thought that the stocks levels may also be reduced due to good domestic and export demand.
USA corn prices were mostly unchanged last week with the futures market up just a little but cash export prices quite steady. It looks like no one is expecting too much excitement from the reports on Monday. Not much more to add on corn this week as everyone is just sitting back and waiting for the reports before they decide what to do.
Soybeans were up quite a bit on the week with both futures and export prices moving higher. The futures markets were up by about USD 15 m/t but export prices were not nearly that strong. Experts feel that the continued strong soybean purchases by China are keeping prices firm. Weather in South America seems quite decent for the crops with rain expected is some parts of Brazil that were getting too dry. Also, the Brazilian government has raised their soybean crop estimate by a tiny bit – up 100,000 m/t.
Overall the markets were quiet as the week ended, with buyers and sellers just waiting to see what the USDA has to say on Monday.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
Price change is calculated from the last report of December 21st.
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $15.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $2,00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $33/34.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000 | $48/49.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Down $4.00 | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $50/51.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $33/34.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $41.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $3.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $41/42.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to China | $32/34.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: coaster | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $25/26.00 | steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 709 | Down 62 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 311 | Down 145 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 764 | Down 63 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 800 | Down 84 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 446 | Down 42 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 734 | Down 75 | x |
*** see sources note
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR JAN 2015/MARCH 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 259>>256 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 267/270 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 241/246 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD no prices | X |
| Wheat, Romania | USD no prices | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen | USD 237/240 | X |
| Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen | USD 234/247 | X |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 245/255 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 215/220 | X |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD 175/185 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 218/221 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 225>>210 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 225/230 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 255/260 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 183/186 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 194/198 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 197/201 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 183/188 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 193/200 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 185/190 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 189/193 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 259/262 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 200/205 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 485/500 | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 540/550 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 470>>455 | X |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 440>>432 | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 460>>440 | X |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 440>>430 | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 640/650 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 425/435 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 400>>390 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 420>>415 | X |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 455>>440 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 400/410 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 750/755 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 185/190 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 270/275 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 315/320 m/t | x |
*** see sources note
US DDGS prices continue to be very firm s everyone is waiting to see how much China is going to purchase for the next three or four months. As can be seen in the table below, China is the largest buyer of export DDGS and any change in their buying will have a major effect on the market. Of course with the problem now solved for GM corn MIR162 every DDGS exporter is looking forward to a new rush of business to China. Trade reports say that there has been lots of interest from China but little in the way of actual business, this due to the current very high DDGS export price. Some experts are saying that there seems to be little chance that DDGS prices will move higher since DDGS is at quite a high premium to corn.
Corn gluten meal export demand continues quite strong, still due to the fishmeal shortage, and there is very little chance that there will be any bargain prices for CGM in coming weeks. There is just too much demand. Looking at total US exports for CGM, year to date shipments are actually down by 6% from last year but the year-end months Nov/Dec and early 2015 should show an increase in exports.
And, as usual, corn gluten feed just chugs along following corn prices higher or lower as the market changes. Corn gluten feed total exports are up about 6% on the year, which is not too bad growth in the somewhat mundane product.
USA corn by-product exports – Jan to Nov 2014 – in m/t – major destinations only
|
| Corn Gluten Feed | Corn Gluten Meal | Distillers Dried Grains -- DDGS |
| Canada | 13,000 | 63,300 | 391,100 |
| Chile |
| 131,800 |
|
| China |
|
| 4,241,900 |
| Columbia | 22,000 | 70,200 | 141,300 |
| Costa Rica |
|
| 66,900 |
| Egypt | 15,800 | 146,000 | 160,100 |
| El Salvador |
| 10,000 | 55,600 |
| Germany | 32,400 |
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| Guatemala |
| 10,400 | 53,200 |
| Indonesia |
| 153,900 | 270,100 |
| Ireland | 348,800 | 15,900 | 239,600 |
| Israel | 208,000 | 14,500 | 149,000 |
| Japan |
| 80,500 | 448,000 |
| Malaysia |
| 33,000 | 44,300 |
| Mexico | 16,100 | 51,800 | 1,416,800 |
| Morocco | 29,800 |
| 71,800 |
| New Zealand |
|
| 72,000 |
| Philippines |
|
| 106,200 |
| Portugal | 16,800 |
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| South Korea | 31,200 | 5,200 | 585,500 |
| Spain | 18,100 |
| 84,200 |
| Taiwan |
| 17,300 | 229,600 |
| Thailand |
| 30,400 | 320,700 |
| Turkey | 119,800 |
| 448,800 |
| UK | 23,000 |
| 130,400 |
| Vietnam |
| 14,700 | 600,000 |
USDA GATS December 2014
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia | x x |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia | X |
| European MBM 45 protein European MBM 50 protein European Feathermeal, 75 protein European poultry meal, pet food grd | USD 385/405 m/t CNF Asia USD 425/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia USD 1050/10700 m/t CNF Asia | X x x x |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 610/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia USD 1070/1100 m/t CNF Asia | X x x x |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 590/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 740/760 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 1080/1150 m/t CNF Asia Very wide range in price | x x x x |
*** see sources note
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 445/455 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 640/660 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 500/520 m/t |
| Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro | USD 825/840 m/t |
*** see sources note
The big news in the US animal protein exports is the appearance of avian flu in a couple of areas in the US, this has caused a number of countries to put a ban on certain items. US poultry meal and feathermeal should be OK as both are heat treated and avian flu would not survive the production methods in the US. The immediate Asian reaction to avian flu in the US in not really expected to make much difference to the animal protein business except perhaps due to the "fear factor" for importers not wanting to take any possible risk – even when there is no risk at all.
US domestic feathermeal and poultry meal prices are weaker as local demand has suddenly fallen off but this is probably just a short term situation. Meat and bone meal prices in the US were also off a little but this was probably just a reaction to the weaker overall market.
Experts feel that once the avian flu matter has calmed down, prices will be steady until the next change in fundamentals hits the market.
USA Animal protein exports – Jan to Nov 2014 – in m/t – major destinations
|
| Feathermeal | Meat and bone meal Incl. Poultry and pork meal |
| Canada |
| 44,600 |
| Chile | 45,700 |
|
| China |
| 35,900 |
| Ecuador |
| 6,300 |
| Guatemala |
| 7,200 |
| Holland |
| 6,600 |
| Indonesia | 95,800 | 64,900 |
| Malaysia |
| 4,000 |
| Mexico |
| 16,800 |
| Philippines |
| 10,500 |
| Thailand |
| 5,200 |
| Vietnam | 15,100 |
|
USDA GATS Dec 2014
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There is not too much to say about Peru fishmeal this week. Stocks are down to the last few tons and buyers are not even looking at Peru these days…only the dregs left to sell.
There was an update published this week on the El Nino situation and it looks like there will be a small event in the next couple of months --- will this affect the next fishing season? It is too soon to tell.
Also, the Peruvian government has made some adjustment to the fishing limits on the southern fishing area, which should make it easier for the quota level to be caught. The annual quota of 400,000 m/t is not large but for the last couple of years that actual catch has been well below quota – this due mainly to fishing area restrictions. So perhaps the changes to the fishing areas could mean that the full quota can be landed once again – but just perhaps.
Fishmeal prices have not changed from last week.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Some of the reason for lower fishmeal prices is due to the strength of the US$ versus the Euro, since German prices are quoted in Euros.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 2,045 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,745 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 2,150 |
| Chile fishmeal | 65 protein | 2,250 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 2,015 |
@Commodity3
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
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| 65 protein | 2000/2050 m/t |
| 65/66 protein | 2050/2100 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 2100/2150 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 2200/2220 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 2340/2360 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2360/2380 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2400/2420 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2500/2550 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2600/2650 |
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2550/2600 |
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 3000/3100 |
*** see sources note
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
*** sources for information for the Weekly Report:
US Grains Council --- www.grains.org, International Grains Council – www.igc.int
US Wheat -- www.uswheat.org , France Agrimer – www.franceagrimer.fr
EU DG Agri -- ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_fr.htm, Commodity 3 -- http://www.commodity3.com/
Newedge Group -- www.newedge.com, The Jacobsen Report -- https://www.thejacobsen.com
MSI Ceres Peru -- http://www.msiceres.com, International Brokers Group S.A.C, Peru.
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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