Weekly report -- Feb 07, 2015

 Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   February 07, 2015

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Most every grain and oilseed decided to change direction this week and move a little higher after quite a long period of falling prices. In the US futures markets corn prices moved up by about USD 6 m/t with soybeans up by USD 4 to 5 m/t and most types of US wheat up by USD 7 to 8 m/t. Only soymeal was moving against the futures trend and was down by about USD 1 m/t on the week.

 

A few futures experts said that the rally in corn prices was caused mainly by lines on commodity charts and what looked like the short of a short price rally. So, what looked like a possible rally became and actual rally as everyone chased corn futures higher. However, there also seem to be some fundamental reasons for a small corn rally: uncertainty about corn planting intentions being the major factor at present, expectations that USDA ending stocks corn numbers could be lower.

 

But overall there doesn't seem to be any good reason to expect a continued rally in corn prices – there is just too much corn and little or no risk of any shortages that might give corn prices good push higher.   

 

Other than following corn and wheat higher, there seems to be very little reason for soybeans to move higher. The crop estimates for South America just get larger and larger as record South American soybean crops keep looking to exceed even the best record forecasts.

 

Next week we will get the USDA WASDE report and any surprises in the report will probably set the market trend over the next few days. Reading much of the bumph from the trade at the end of the week, it seems that no one is expecting there to be much excitement or surprises in the report but who is to say….sometimes the USDA does exciting things.

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

The Baltic Dry Index at 559 is only slightly above the record low level of 554 that was set back in July of 1986. It is reported in the trade that a number of dry-bulk ship operators are very close to bankruptcy and that even the largest vessel owners/operators are facing very significant operating losses. While some experts have said that dry bulk rate could remain at low levels for another two years, many in the industry doubt that these low levels will be able to last, as dry bulk shipping companies fall by the wayside and the vessel supply shrinks.

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Steady	X
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$50/51.00	up $1.00	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	x
US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$38/39.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000	$48/49.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$28/30.00	Down $2.00	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$26/27.00	Down $2.00	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$19/20.00	Down $1.00	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$41/42.00	up $1.00	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$52/53.00	up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$38/39.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$35/36.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$45/46.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$28/29.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t	$31/32.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$41.00	Steady	X
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Steady	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Europe	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$41/42.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$17/18.00	Down $1.00	x
Ukraine to China	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$11/12.00	Down $4.00	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster	$35/37.00	Down $3.00	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$10/11.00	Down $4.00	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$39/40.00	Down $4.00	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t	$31/32.00	New info	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t	$14/16.00	Down $4.00	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$21/22.00	Down $4.00	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$16/17.00	Down $4.00	x
Baltic Dry Index	559	Down 49	x
Baltic Capesize Index	689	Up 10	x
Baltic Panamax Index	430	Down 78	x
Baltic Supramax Index	530	Down 55	x
Baltic Handisize Index	301	Down 39	x
Bunkerworld fuel index	794	Up 91	x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR FEB 2015/APRIL 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 243>>226	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 256/258	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 245/240	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 245/252	x
Wheat, Romania	USD 240/247	x
Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen	USD 219/221	x
Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen	USD 213/215	x
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 240/245	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 208/212	x
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD 170/175	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 211/213	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 215>>197	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 210/215	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 265/270	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 182>>179	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 194/197	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 180/186	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 176/181	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 172/177	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 172/180	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 172/177	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 260/264	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 175/180	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 460/466	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 535/545	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 440>>430	x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 418/425	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 425>>415	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 390/400	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD 635/645	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 400/410	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 375>>364	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 390>>380	x
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD 423>>415	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 405/410	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   770>>760 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   170/175 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   270>>265 m/t	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   320>>315 m/t	x

 

There was not a great deal of price change this week in any of the corn by-products – other than on the US west coast where shipment delays were causing export prices to increase. Looking at DDGS for the week, the price was in a range of USD 5 to 6 m/t, some up and some down. There wasn't a great deal of export buyer activity in the market perhaps as everything winds down for Chinese New Year later this month. At least one trade expert was saying that DDGS prices will probably be up the next few days as last minute Chinese buyers try to book some purchases before heading off for as few days of holidays.

 

Corn gluten meal prices remain steady as export demand is still very good and even corn gluten feed prices were steady again this week.   

 

USA exports --- 12 months of 2014  – in m/t – major destinations

 

	Distillers Dried Grains – DDGS	Corn Gluten Feed	Corn Gluten Meal
			70,200
Canada	454,500		71,600
Chile			133,100
China	4,367,500
Columbia	141,300	22,000	70,200
Egypt	160,100		146,000
Germany		32,400
Indonesia	288,100		163,900
Ireland	249,300	387,800	15,900
Israel	178,500	217,900	22,300
Japan	482,600		82,600
Malaysia			36,000
Mexico	1,576,200		53,700
Morocco		38,900
South Korea	692,500	48,900
Taiwan	260,500		22,400
Thailand	368,400		33,000
Turkey	488,800	119,800
UK		23,000
Vietnam	655,000		15,900

USDA FAS

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein	USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia
European MBM 45 protein    European MBM 50 protein    European Feathermeal, 75 protein    European poultry meal, pet food	USD 385/405 m/t CNF Asia  USD 425/450 m/t CNF Asia  USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1050/10700 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia  USD 610/620 m/t CNF Asia  USD 760/780 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1040/1070 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia  USD 620/630 m/t CNF Asia  USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1020/1050 m/t CNF Asia  Very wide range in price

 

 

Meat and bone meal prices in Asia were reported to be quite weak the past few days – perhaps due to Chinese New Year and a drop in business or due to lower prices for soymeal and an ever growing list of protein alternatives --- the Jacobsen Report this week said that low cost DDGS was helping to move animal protein prices lower.

 

Needless to say, with the poultry by-product bans still on in some Asian countries there is good reason for US poultry meal and feathermeal prices to drop lower while other origins see an increased demand and higher prices for their production of poultry by-products.

 

In the US, there has been a west coast dock strike which has delayed export shipments and is causing supply to back up in the domestic market which therefore is moving domestic prices a tad lower.  Hopefully this will not last too long.

 

There were some informative numbers published by the IFFO (the fishmeal folks) on meat and bone meal imports by China in 2014. It seems that total MBM imports are up by 14% to 131,000 m/t with the origin breakdown as follows:  USA 63,000 m/t, Uruguay 29,700 m/t, New Zealand 19,800 m/t and Australia at 18,500 m/t. It is interesting to note that whole the IFFO says that USA exports were at 63,000 m/t the USDA says only 39,000 m/t.

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein	USD 410/420 m/t
Feathermeal  80 protein USA	USD 450/480 m/t
Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA	USD 480/500 m/t
Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro	USD 670/690 m/t

 

 

USA exports --- 12 months of 2014  – in m/t – major destinations

 

	Meat and bone meal Including poultry and Pork meal	Feathermeal
Canada	48,700	16,200
Chile		48,100
China	39,100	1,300
Ecuador	7,100
Guatemala	7,400
Holland	6,900
Indonesia	72,500	99,000
Malaysia	4,800
Mexico	17,800
Philippines	12,462
Thailand	5,700

USDA FAS

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

The word in Peru this week is that the next northern fishing season could start as early as the first half of May with fishing expected for May to July….this would certainly give the industry a wee push as there would be something to sell. And, there would certainly be jobs for everyone.

 

There is also talk that the new southern fishing season may start before the end of February but this seems to be mainly just speculation. There is much talk about a very high level of juvenile fish in the south which could easily delay the start of southern fishing.

 

The Peru export numbers by producer show that the top four exporters represent almost exactly 70% of the total export business: Tasa, Copinca, Diamante and Exalmar are the top four with the top two – Tasa and Copinca  - representing almost 49% of the total fishmeal exports. The remaining 25 or so smaller producer/exporters fight over the remaining 30% of the business.

 

There were some interesting numbers from IFFO this week relating to China. China's total fishmeal imports for 2014 are up by 6.3% on 2013 and Peru's share is actually up by 11% from 2013. Peru is currently about 49% of the total China fishmeal imports – no other country is above the 10% share level with the USA being at 9.4% and Chile at 9.0%. The top three fishmeal shippers to China – Peru, USA, Chile – represent close to 70% of the business.

 

The IFFO report also highlighted the fact that China's fishoil imports in 2014 were down by about 30% on 2013 from 65,700 m/t in 2013 to 46,000 m/t in 2014.   

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,970
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,690
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,990
Chile fishmeal	65 protein	2,150
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	2,100

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	1900/1920 m/t
65/66 protein	2000/2020 m/t
67 protein standard steam	2090/2110 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	2170/2190 m/t	2100/2130
67 protein SD 120 TVN	2200/2240 m/t	2200/2220
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	2260/2280 m/t	2240/2260
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	2320/2340 m/t	2300/2320
Fish oil, crude bulk	2500/2550	1950/2000
Fish oil, crude drums	2600/2650
Fish oil, flexi tank	2550/2600
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2900/3000

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon