Weekly Report - Feb 28, 2015

 

Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   February 28, 2015

 

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

It was another very quiet week for the corn business with little or nothing happening to prices – export or domestic. There doesn't seem to be any surplus of corn in the cash market but neither is there any shortage so prices just chug along doing very little and waiting for the next bit of news that will get things happening. It was interesting with corn futures this week that whenever the market slipped a little lower there were always buyer there to bring the prices back up. One can probably assume that we are in a trading range with not too much risk of the bottom falling out of corn prices.

 

The port problems in Brazil continue but that is nothing new. However, there was some talk of fuel shortages in Brazil delaying the corn planting but that may just be talk. Saudi Arabia bought a whack of US corn – 160,000 m/t – but not much of a surprise while China was still in there scooping up all the sorghum they can find.

 

Soybeans were up about USD 10 on the week in both cash and futures as problems with truckers in Brazil are delaying export shipments (even more than usual) with roads toward the ports said to be blocked by soybean trucks. According to the press reports truck discharge in the ports is seen at less than 20% of the normal daily intake. The longer the Brazil truck strike goes on the longer soybeans will stay firm.

 

There was some talk that any delay in Brazil will make China switch some purchases back to the US and this certainly helped to push US prices higher. Of course, this is just guess work at present.

 

On the futures side of soybeans there was quite a bit of spec fund interest in soybeans, which certainly helps to keep prices firms and buyers excited.

 

 

France AgriMer – crop condition report – February 26, 2015

 

	Very Good %	Good %	Average %	Bad %	Very Bad %
Soft wheat	33	58	8	1
Hard wheat	11	75	13	1
Barley	33	57	9	1

@France AgriMer

  

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

Large Capesize vessels continue to weaken on low demand from China while all other sizes seem to be looking at slightly higher prices as demand for some vessel sizes has picked up a tad.

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Down $2.00	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$25/26.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$44/45.00	Down $2.00	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Down $2.00	x
US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$38/39.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000	$48/49.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$25/26.00	Down $2.00	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$27/28.00	Up $1.00	X
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$16/17.00	Down $1.00	X
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$40/41.00	Steady	X
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$50/51.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$20/21.00	up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$19/20.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$36/37.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$44/45.00	up $2.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$27/28.00	Up $2.00	X
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$35/36.00	Down $2.00	X
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Down $2.00	X
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Europe	$19/20.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$34/35.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$17/18.00	Up $1.00	x
Ukraine to China	$26/27.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$10/11.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to East Med: coaster	$35/37.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$8/9.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$17/18.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t	$10/12.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$17/18.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$16/17.00	Steady	X
Baltic Dry Index	540	up 27	X
Baltic Capesize Index	521	Down 21	X
Baltic Panamax Index	540	Up 26	X
Baltic Supramax Index	515	Up 25	X
Baltic Handisize Index	308	Up 38	x
Bunkerworld fuel index	847	Down 3	x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR MARCH 2015/MAY 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 234>>227	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 246/248	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 221/226	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD no prices
Wheat, Romania	USD 230/238	x
Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen	USD 212/215	x
Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen	USD 208/211	x
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 225/235	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 205/210	x
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD 172/175	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 197/200	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 200>>190	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 204/209	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 265/270	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 181>>179	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 191/194	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 170/176	X
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 184/187	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 168/173	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 165/170	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 171/175	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 253/257	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 165/175	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 466/478	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 565/575	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 446>>435	X
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 424/434	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 445>>435	X
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 395/405	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD 660/670	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 420/430	X
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 390>>380	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 398>>388	X
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD 430>>420	X
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 390/400	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   750/755 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   170/174 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   260>>255 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   315>>310 m/t	x

 

The US domestic market is saying that a slight slowdown in ethanol production could make DDGS supply a little tighter in coming weeks but that does not seem to have had any effect on price for the next two or three months, as everything seems quite steady from last week. The reason for a slight slowdown in ethanol production is an increase in stocks on hand which could lead to producers cutting back just a little. However, no one is expecting any shortage of DDGS. DDGS prices are actually quite steady for the next few weeks with only a USD 3 or 4 m/t drop for sales a couple of months out.

 

Corn gluten meal too is quite steady with no major changes, neither up nor down, being seen in domestic or export prices. The trade reports that export shipments of CGM are still quite steady with no drop at all seen in current export volumes. However, it does seem to be a little easier to find available supply for export these days. A few weeks ago you had to pull teeth to get a nearby shipment of CGM but this seems to be better, at least from the US east coast.     

 

There was a note in the press this week about the new Enogen corn that is being grown strictly for ethanol production. This is a GM corn with a special enzyme that allows it to be broken down into ethanol much more easily and can produce as much as 6% more ethanol per m/t. On the down side, this corn is useless for other uses so needs to be strictly ethanol corn.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein	USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia  USD 510/530 m/t CNF Asia  USD 710/730 m/t CNF Asia  USD 980/1000 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 510/530 m/t CNF Asia  USD 640/650 m/t CNF Asia  USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1020/1050 m/t CNF Asia

 

Sorry, no updated prices for European this week as my price supplier seems to be off on holidays somewhere ----  well, it was school holidays in Europe this week and last.

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein	USD 410/420 m/t
Feathermeal  80 protein USA	USD 440/460 m/t
Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA	USD 470/490 m/t
Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro	USD 660/680 m/t

 

There has been quite a bit of buying interest seen from Vietnam this week as everyone gets back to work after the long Chinese New Year holidays. The trouble is that most of the lower cost origins are sold out for the next few months….many are sold out through May shipment. For the higher priced origins – USA, Australia, New Zealand – the opposite seems to be true with stocks building and prices slipping a little. According to the Jacobson report prices for MBM in Asia are of by USD 10 to 15 m/t this week.

 

Feathermeal prices seem to have bottomed out – even USA prices – so we may see prices moving up a little in coming weeks. Supplies of feathermeal out of South America are very tight with only the odd lot being available for the next three months or so.

  

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Fishmeal prices in Europe were down considerably over the last two weeks with some origins down as much as USD 150 m/t - similar drops prices are being seen in Peru as buyers start to show a little interest in new production. Of course, low buyers bids for future production may not set the standard for prices but still, everyone does expect market prices to come tumbling down. However, in Peru, much depends on where the new fishing quotas for South and North may be set.  

 

In Peru the fishing industry is pushing for a quota for the South so that fishing can get started. There is some concern that an expected increase in temperatures may push the fish into areas where fishing is not allowed. The industry is pushing for the government to make a decision on the Southern area fishing without waiting for another exploratory voyage.

 

According to the trade the exploratory voyage for the Northern fishing conditions has begun and will last about 6 weeks. Let's hope that all is well with the fish in the North as we don't need another period of no fishing.

 

There have been any number of recent articles on how the high fishmeal prices are shrinking the market with the development of fishmeal protein alternatives coming thick and fast. There is also the trend for fishmeal producers to become more human consumption producers and less dependent on the fishmeal business – this seems to be very true for North Atlantic producers. However, as has been pointed out many times, every ounce of fishmeal produced finds a buyer every year…there just never seems to be any excess supply of fishmeal.

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,750
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,650
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,920
Chile fishmeal	65 protein	2,000
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	1,620

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	1750/1770 m/t
65/66 protein	1800/1850 m/t
67 protein standard steam	2000/2100 m/t	1900/1950
67 protein SD 150  TVN	2150/2200 m/t	2050/2100
67 protein SD 120 TVN	2200/2250 m/t	2100/2150
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	2250/2300 m/t	2300/2330
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	2300/2350 m/t	2330/2350
Fish oil, crude bulk	2500/2550	No price
Fish oil, crude drums	2600/2650
Fish oil, flexi tank	2550/2600
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2900/3000

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon