Weekly report - Feb 14, 2015

 

Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   February 14, 2015

 

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

 

It wasn't a terrible exciting week in the grain business and with Monday being a US holiday next week we may see a second reasonably quiet week. The USDA WASDE report that came out this week was not as full of surprises as some experts had been hoping and, overall, the market did not have any major reactions to the report.

 

Corn prices on the week, both futures and cash, did not change much, if at all, as the "ups" in the  WASDE were covered by "downs" in other areas of the report leaving corn, sorghum and barley at about where they had started. However, looking at the world, the WASDE did show increased production for almost everything which was nicely offset by increased consumption for almost everything --- leaving us back where we started.

 

Overall the price of corn is going to be under the influence of the Argentina/Brazil corn harvests and, although the crop is expected to be lower than last year there will still be just under 100 million m/t of South American corn after the harvest.   

 

There was some talk on Friday about a possible strike in Brazil that could have an effect on soybean shipments and this did push prices a little higher. Also, the estimates for the Brazil soybean crop were lowered a little but about 400,000 m/t but that seems very little when a record crop of close to 95 million m/t is expected. There doesn't seem to be a single expert in the market who is forecasting higher soybean prices.

 

With the US dollar softening a bit this week and USGulf freight rates quite low, the export market for USA grains and oilseeds should remain quite good to many markets. It is also only in the USA where a buyer can get a combination of grains and by-products all on the same vessels which does give the US an advantage with some importing countries.

 

 

One closing item: France issued their first crop condition report of 2015 this week and all looks very good for the winter wheat and barley crops, see table below:

 

France AgriMer – crop condition report – February 09, 2015

 

	Very Good %	Good %	Average %	Bad %	Very Bad %
Soft wheat	33	59	7	1
Hard wheat	11	77	11	1
Barley	33	58	8

@France AgriMer

  

 

 

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$26/27.00	Steady	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$27/28.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$50/51.00	Steady	X
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	X
US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$38/39.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000	$48/49.00	Steady	X
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$26/27.00	Steady	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$17/18.00	Down $2.00	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$41/42.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$52/53.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Down $2.00	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Down $2.00	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Down $2.00	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Down $2.00	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$38/39.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$35/36.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$45/46.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t	$31/32.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$41.00	Steady	x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Down $2.00	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Europe	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Down $2.00	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$41/42.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$17/18.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to China	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$10/11.00	Down $1.00	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster	$35/37.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$9/10.00	Down $1.00	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Down $2.00	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Down $2.00	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t	$13/14.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$19/20.00	Down $2.00	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$16/17.00	Steady	x
Baltic Dry Index	530	Down 29	x
Baltic Capesize Index	630	Down 59	x
Baltic Panamax Index	430	Up 69	x
Baltic Supramax Index	486	Down 44	x
Baltic Handisize Index	268	Down 33	x
Bunkerworld fuel index	827	Up 33	x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR FEB 2015/APRIL 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 245>>225	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 256/258	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 230/235	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 240/245	x
Wheat, Romania	USD 235/240	x
Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen	USD 214/216	x
Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen	USD 209/211	x
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 230/239	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 210/213	x
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD 170/175	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 210/212	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 205>>197	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 200/205	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 265/270	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 182>>180	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 196/198	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 178/182	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 182/186	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 172/176	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 171/175	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 173/178	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 261/264	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 170/180	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 455/462	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 540/548	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 440>>431	x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 416/422	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 428>>418	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 385/395	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD 635/645	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 405/415	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 375>>365	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 393>>383	x
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD 429>>417	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 400/405	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   745/755 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   170/174 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   270>>262 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   320>>312 m/t	X

 

There seemed to be quite a few bids in the market for corn by-products thus week – mainly from Asia – with the buyers bidding very low in the hopes of falling prices. With there being very little change in corn market prices this week, most corn by-product sellers were not all that interested in accepting lower bids.

 

Container shipments out of the West Coast of the USA to Asian destinations are still quite delayed, so there is not too much interest in trying to book new shipments until perhaps April/May shipment when the shipping situation may have improved.

 

DDGS prices for April/May are softer than spot price which is due mainly to the expected drop in world soymeal prices one South American hits the market with their record crops. We also see that corn gluten meal prices are softer for shipment a couple of months out and this could become even softer in the longer term if the fishmeal production situation in Peru looks to improve for the first major 2015 fishing season that is expected in May.

 

For now, prices seem to want to slide a little lower on the FOB side, following corn, but CNF prices may not be as weak if the US West Coast shipping delays don't improve.  

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein	USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia
European MBM 45 protein    European MBM 50 protein    European Feathermeal, 75 protein    European poultry meal, pet food	USD 385/405 m/t CNF Asia  USD 425/450 m/t CNF Asia  USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1050/10700 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia  USD 710/730 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia  USD 620/630 m/t CNF Asia  USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1020/1050 m/t CNF Asia

 

According to reports in the trade this week, export prices for all animal proteins are being pushed lower as the price is dropping for alternative protein items – especially vegetable proteins. World soymeal prices seem to move a little lower every week and with very large South American soybean crops expected in coming weeks there will certainly be lots of soymeal available to substitute for animal proteins – at least up to the maximum nutritional level.

 

There just seems to be too much supply chasing too little demand --- not that demand has really dropped just that everyone is looking very closely at least cost feed formulations and animal proteins are having to fight for every bit of business. The USA export business to China is at a standstill at present due to Chinese New Year and existing restrictions on US poultry related by-products.

 

The major markets for animal by-products tend to be in Asia these days and with the Chinese New Year holidays upon us, the new business side of the export market is expected to be quiet for a week or two.  

 

In the US domestic market there seems to be a little more supply than demand for now so all animal protein prices are a little weak --- of course, everyone is watching soymeal prices before buying any MBM, etc.

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein	USD 410/420 m/t
Feathermeal  80 protein USA	USD 450/480 m/t
Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA	USD 480/500 m/t
Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro	USD 660/680 m/t

 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

The major news out of Peru this week seems to be the review of the biomass in the south of the country. The overall estimated size of the biomass has increased considerably from the last review but the very high level of juvenile fish means that there is no chance for fishing to be started in the south as yet. However, things are looking very good for the future fishing.

 

There is little or no new business being done in Peru with absolutely no stocks left and no one too interested in booking fishmeal for the next season as yet. Also, with China going on holidays for a few days there is no one much even looking at fishmeal.

 

The current high world prices for fishmeal has attracted every possible fishmeal exporting country into the market so we are seeing fishmeal supplies coming from places that no one even knew had a fish or two. It certainly is amazing how high prices can get exporters excited. Of course, if the current high prices do get new exporters into the market than we could perhaps see some long term expansion of exporting countries – this would not be a bad thing for the fishmeal market.

 

There was news this week about Nutreco's new shrimp feed that is produced using much lower levels of fishmeal in the formulation. The fishmeal level has dropped from 25% down to 15% and, they say, has no effect on the performance of the shrimp. It is interesting to note that the amount of fishmeal used in salmon feed had dropped from 30% to 5%, so the years of research do pay off in the long run. Perhaps we will see levels in shrimp feed drop just as much as in salmon feed.

 

For years now feed producers have been working hard to find replacements for fishmeal in all types of feed and, even as feed levels are reduced, the demand for fishmeal continues strong and every pound/kilo produced is sold every year. So, one can assume that without feed formulation changes the demand for fishmeal would be even higher as would be the fishmeal prices.  

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,900
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,680
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,990
Chile fishmeal	65 protein	2,140
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	2,100

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	1900/1920 m/t
65/66 protein	2000/2020 m/t
67 protein standard steam	2090/2110 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	2170/2190 m/t	2100/2130
67 protein SD 120 TVN	2200/2240 m/t	2200/2220
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	2260/2280 m/t	2240/2260
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	2320/2340 m/t	2300/2320
Fish oil, crude bulk	2500/2550	1950/2000
Fish oil, crude drums	2600/2650
Fish oil, flexi tank	2550/2600
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2900/3000

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon