Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 21, 2015
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
All the information that came out of the USDA's Outlook Forum this week didn't seem to have an overwhelming effect on the grain/oilseed market. The overall effect was probably just a little bullish – with soybeans being a tad more bullish than corn. As the week ended the futures market had corn almost unchanged with soybeans up by USD 3 to 4 m/t and soymeal being the strongest up USD 11 to 15 m/t. Futures prices might have been higher expect that wheat prices were down strongly and this may have taken some of the strength out of the other grain/oilseed futures.
The strength in soybeans was more in the nearby positions which makes sense as cash prices won't be too weak until we see some South American beans in the market. As long as the US is the only game in town then the nearby bean/meal prices will stay stronger.
There was some activity with soybeans and China according to the USDA and now there is speculation that some China business to Brazil may switch back to the US if there are serious shipment delays out of Brazil – aren't shipment delays a given.
Overall it was a very boring week for corn with nothing too much exciting happening in the US. Export sales were quite good and the year to date export sales totals are ahead of average levels. However, it is reported that corn is having to fight for export loading positions as soybeans seem to be filling up all the loading slots.
One very long term point on corn: the USDA expects US corn exports to grow from 40% of the world export market today to 45% by 2025 – perhaps an offshoot of the TTIP program.
The next big factor in the grain/oilseed markets in the US is going to be the planting intentions of the farmers. Everyone expects corn plantings to move lower while soybeans plantings are expected to increase. But, it is all guess work at present and the Outlook Forum didn't really make thing any clearer. The USDA Planting Intentions Report will not be out until the very end of March, so for now we will all have speculate and the Outlook Forum numbers revealed nothing.
As to prices, soybeans/soymeal ended the week strong and could move higher next week while corn prices tried to go higher but couldn't. So, perhaps corn will try to higher again next week.
France AgriMer – crop condition report – February 16, 2015
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| Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % |
| Soft wheat | 33 | 58 | 8 | 1 |
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| Hard wheat | 11 | 75 | 13 | 1 |
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| Barley | 34 | 57 | 8 | 1 |
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@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
While the freight rates for very large vessels, based on the Baltic Index, continue to fall the vessels from Panamax down seem to have stabilized or are moving slightly higher. This could imply that there may be no more weakness in grain ocean freight rates.
As you can see from the table below, most everything is lower this week, some quite significantly. According to trade comments the Black Sea rates are down due to a lack of available grain cargo while other rates are not traded every week and may just be catching up with recent market weakness.
Also, looking at this week's wheat tender to Egypt with freight from France at around USD 13 m/t it is hard to understand why trade reports for grain freight have Europe/Egypt up just over USD 20 m/t. Difficult to imagine that load/discharge rates would make a 35% difference to the freight but then there are probably other factors that I am not considering.
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $3.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Down $4.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $3.00 | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000 | $48/49.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $50/51.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $21/23.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $25/26.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $37/38.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $3.00 | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $20/21.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $37/38.00 | Down $4.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $10/11.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $35/37.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $8/9.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t | $10/12.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $17/18.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 513 | Down 17 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 542 | Down 88 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 514 | Up 84 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 490 | Up 4 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 270 | Up 2 | X |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 850 | Up 23 | x |
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR FEB 2015/APRIL 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 237>>229 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 246/249 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 226/230 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD no prices | x |
| Wheat, Romania | USD 230/240 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen | USD 213/215 | X |
| Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen | USD 209/211 | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 230/239 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 206/210 | x |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD 172/175 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 201/205 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 200>>190 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 204/209 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 265/270 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 182>>179 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 192/195 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 178/182 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 184/188 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 170/174 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 169/173 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 172/178 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 254/257 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 165/175 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 465/475 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 555/565 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 445>>435 | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 423/430 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 445>>435 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 395/405 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 650/660 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 407/420 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 385>>375 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 395>>385 | x |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 430>>420 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 400/405 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 745/755 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 170/174 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 260>>255 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 315>>310 m/t | x |
US export DDGS prices slipped a little lower this week due, according to the US Grains Council, on a drop in grain barge rates down the Mississippi River. US corn prices were not down so it was internal transport that moved the export prices lower. Of course, the USGC also says that prices from the West Coast of the US were higher due to export port delays in the west being factored into the prices. There was the comment in the trade that Chinese New Year holidays might help to ease the congestion in the US ports but that is not too likely as the backlog to China still has to shipped, be it today or tomorrow.
FYI, the USDA issued the first "Grain Crushing and Co-Products Production" report since 2011 and, although it has a mouthful for a name it does give some interesting information, for example: 1.9 million m/t of DDGS produced in December 2014 along with 330,000 m/t of corn gluten feed and 95,000 m/t of corn gluten meal – this excludes all the high moisture production that is sold locally. Total corn used in the production of ethanol and alcohol was up by about 5% at 465 million bushels, (about 12 million m/t) from November 2014.
For those who are interested, this report will now be issued every month and will be available from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service.
As to prices, falling corn prices and lower soymeal should help to keep a lid on co-products prices for now.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia |
| European MBM 45 protein European MBM 50 protein European Feathermeal, 75 protein European poultry meal, pet food | USD 385/405 m/t CNF Asia USD 425/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 780/800 m/t CNF Asia USD 1050/10700 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 710/730 m/t CNF Asia USD 1000/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 510/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 620/630 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 1020/1050 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 410/420 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 450/480 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 480/500 m/t |
| Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro | USD 660/680 m/t |
Animal protein prices CNF Asia were a little softer again this week due somewhat to very good available supply but also with no Chinese buyers in the market most sellers were aggressive with their pricing. It is interesting to note that the trade reported a very wide spread in prices for most animal proteins but that may just be due to the few buyers in the market bidding very low and trying to snap up a bargain.
Domestic prices for meat and bone meal in the US were a little lower but not enough to get anyone excited. Even pet food grade poultry meal seemed to have dropped a little lower in some areas. Experts are saying that there may not be much room for prices to go a lot further down but they also say that there is little or no reason to expect higher prices for now. It looks like we may be in a wide trading range for a bit, say plus or minus USD 10 to 20 m/t on MBM.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Early reports from the South of Peru have the biomass up very significantly from the last information but close to 100% of the fish are juvenile size. The situation (and the fish) will be reviewed in March with another exploratory cruise which – hopefully – could result in a southern fishing season.
There is also some concern in Peru that the next Imarpe northern survey cruise may encounter some rather strange results due to the very warm air temperatures and the effect that may be seen on the water temperature and the biomass. Early days yet but people are concerned.
Also, the fishing industry is trying to get the northern survey cruise done a little earlier so that earlier good results might be able to allow an early start to the next (hoped for) fishing season.
With China off on New Year holidays, the fishmeal business is even quieter than it has been. However, there was some word in the trade about a drop in fishmeal prices in Europe this week but there is little information available to confirm a drop.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,900 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | No price |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 2,000 |
| Chile fishmeal | 65 protein | 2,150 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | No price |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1950/1970 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 2000/2020 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 2050/2100 m/t | 1900/1950 |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 2150/2200 m/t | 2050/2100 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 2200/2240 m/t | 2100/2150 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2250/2300 m/t | 2300/2330 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2300/2350 m/t | 2330/2350 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2500/2550 | No price |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2600/2650 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2550/2600 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2900/3000 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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