Weekly report - Mar 21, 2105

 

Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   March 21, 2015

 

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

 

Wheat was the only grain to have a major rally this week pushed up by concerns about the Hard Red Winter Wheat crop and the drop in the US dollar – most US winter wheat grades were up by about USD 10 to 11 m/t.  

 

Corn prices were also up on the week but only by a dollar or two for both futures and cash corn. There was not a huge amount of activity in the market this week and prices earlier in the week had been drifting just a little bit lower. There just didn't seem to be any reason for higher corn prices – except perhaps the drop in the dollar. A couple of experts wrote this week that they expect corn prices to move higher over the next ten days, until the USDA Planting and Stocks report, as they feel the USDA report will be bullish for corn prices. The stocks part of the report is important to prices as it shows how much is currently on hand then all the experts can see how much needs to be sold before the next harvest – high stocks should be bearish while low stocks are certainly bullish.

 

Soybeans and soymeal ended the week with a Friday rally in futures but overall the price at the end of the week was about the same as the previous week. However, the rally in futures on Friday may just be setting a trend for higher prices over the next few days. It was reported that hedge funds were getting long on soybean futures – one wonders what they know in a week that really was not all that exciting.

 

It seems that the market feeling is that prices for grain may trend higher over the next few days as excitement grows over the next USDA report. But wheat prices will probably tend to be more weather driven for now and any improvement in HRW wheat weather could bring a tumble to wheat prices.

    

 

 

France AgriMer – crop condition report – March 12, 2015

 

Winter crops	Very Good %	Good %	Average %	Bad %	Very Bad %
Soft wheat	32	59	8	1
Hard wheat	11	74	14	1
Barley	33	58	9
Spring crops	Planted March 9 2015	Planted March 09 2014
Barley	46%	17%

@France AgriMer

  

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$25/26.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$26/27.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$42/43.00	down $2.00	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$24/25.00	Steady	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$26/27.00	Steady	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$16/17.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$39/40.00	down $1.00	X
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$49/50.00	down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$20/21.00	down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$33/34.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$31/32.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$46/47.00	down $1.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$30/31.00	Up $2.00	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t	$33/34.00	Up $2.00	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$33/34.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Up $2.00	x
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$25/26.00	up $2.00	x
Brazil to Europe	$18/19.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$28/29.00	Down $2.00	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$18/19.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to China	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$11/12.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster	$37/38.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$8/9.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$19/20.00	up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t	$10/11.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$17/18.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$18/19.00	up $1.00	x
Baltic Dry Index	591	Up 29	x
Baltic Capesize Index	423	Up 45	x
Baltic Panamax Index	617	Up 32	x
Baltic Supramax Index	635	Up 29	x
Baltic Handisize Index	384	Up 16	x
Bunkerworld fuel index	779	Down 35	x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR MARCH 2015/MAY 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 237>>233	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 257/259	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 208/214	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 213/218 est.	x
Wheat, Romania	USD 215/218	x
Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen	USD 210/213	X
Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen	USD 206/209	x
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 200/210	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 185/190	x
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD 185/190	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 203/206	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 180/185	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 195/200	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 260/265	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 179>>176	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 189/191	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 170/173	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 176/178	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 167/172	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 165/175	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 172/177	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 275>>>253	X
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 165/170	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 445/455	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 545/555	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 390/395	x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 365/370	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 405/420	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 370/385	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD 650/660	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 400/407	X
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 370/375	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 380/385	X
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD 400/405	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 385/390	X
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   715>>700 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   160/163 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   265/268 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   334/337 m/t	x

 

Chinese buyers were quite active in the DDGS market this week but it is hard to know how much actual business was done – it may have been mostly just taking as buyers waited for better prices.

 

The USGC report was saying this week that domestic buyers and exporters have been buying good sized amounts of DDGS for periods a little further out – they surmise that the purchasing is being done now to lock in some reasonably priced supply before we get into the spring period that normally has very high price volatility.

 

Egyptian buyers are said to have been quite active in the US corn gluten meal export market this week. Egypt normally imports about 12,000 m/t per month of CGM but in January got 18,000 m/t and March business looks to be up near that level.  

 

The price for corn gluten meal has slipped quite a bit in the last five or six weeks – even with good demand – as mentioned before, it could just be the expectation of lower fishmeal prices that is putting some pressure on CGM.

 

A couple of interesting points that I bumped into this week: EU produced corn gluten feed is about USD 20 m/t higher than in the US, while the lowest DDGS seems to also be about USD 20 m/t higher than in the US.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein	USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 520/540 m/t CNF Asia  USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia  USD 970/990 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia  USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia  USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia  USD 1020/1050 m/t CNF Asia

 

Animal protein trading in Asia was reported to be quite strong this week with business said to be being done over quite a wide price range. Spot prices seem to be higher – probably just due to the demand – while prices out a few weeks are not at all strong. Some USA exporters are also reported to be sold out of MBM for the next month or so, this may be due to trying to catch up with the delays in shipments from the US West Coast due to strikes – backlogged export business was rerouted into the domestic market and now has to be shipped.

 

It was interesting to read in one report that suppliers of fishmeal in Asia have started dropping prices well in advance of any low prices related to supply from Peru and lower fishmeal is said to be putting some pressure on MBM prices out a couple of months.

 

There has also been a drop in US 60 protein corn gluten meal prices which should also be helping to drag animal protein prices lower.

 

In the USA, the feathermeal market has at last picked up, probably as a result of the very low price levels that were seen when avian flu was discovered in a couple of US locations. Nothing exciting to report with US domestic MBM as there are no new significant market factors and prices just move along – up a little then down a little.

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein	USD 420/430 m/t
Feathermeal  80 protein USA	USD 470/490 m/t
Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA	USD 480/500 m/t
Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro	USD 660/680 m/t

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Exploratory fishing has begun in the south of Peru but this past week has been off and on due to the very high percentage of juvenile fish – up as high as 48% in one area. 48 hour fishing bans have been put in place in the worst affected areas.

 

It has been very interesting to see reports in the financial press of how well fishing/fishmeal companies in Peru have done in the last financial year. Overall it looks like the short fishmeal quota did not have too serious an effect, if any, on fishing organizations that are diversified across the fishing industry. Even some companies that are quite dependent on fishmeal had a good year in 2014. It seems that they are now much better able to handle the very large ups and downs of the industry and the quotas.

 

Much of the talk in Peru has now moved to prices and what will happen with the very high current market priced when Peru has new supply to sell. One would expect that there is going to need to be a major correction in prices but how much will that be USD 200 to 300 m/t lower, perhaps more.

 

Needless to say, anyone with fishmeal to sell today is going to keep selling at these very high prices until some new Peru production is about to come to market……fishmeal producers outside of Peru have done very well over the past few months with profit margins one can only dream about.  

 

Looking at the major northern fishing quota in Peru, there continues to be a very wide spread in the estimates of the size of the quota but more and more experts seem to be leaning toward the 2 million to 2.5 million m/t level.

 

On last word on prices – the indication prices below show a drop from last week and might just represent the first steps to lower producers prices in Peru.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,690
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,560
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,890
Chile fishmeal	65 protein	2,000
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	1,600

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	1750/1770 m/t
65/66 protein	1800/1820 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1900/1920 m/t	1800/1850
67 protein SD 150  TVN	2050/2070 m/t	2050/2100
67 protein SD 120 TVN	2070/2090 m/t	2100/2150
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	2080/2200 m/t	2230/2280
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	2200/2250 m/t	2200/2250
Fish oil, crude bulk	2500/2550	No price
Fish oil, crude drums	2600/2650
Fish oil, flexi tank	2550/2600
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2900/3000

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon