Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 29, 2015
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Sorry that I am a day late this week but I was travelling and it is tough to keep up with all the info while in hotels and airports.
As can be seen by the futures market this week: corn, soybeans and soymeal were quiet while wheat gave back much of the previous week's rally as the wheat growing weather in the US was not as bad as had been thought.
Most experts are saying that the cash and futures markets should become much more active next week with the new USDA Plantings and Stocks report coning out at noon on the 31st. This report is expected to set the price trend for the next few weeks --- from 1200 Tuesday on next week we will probably see a very active market.
The futures market will be much more volatile than the cash market but the planting intentions and the grain stocks will certainly have a serious effect on the cash price, as will the changes in CBOT futures.
Most experts seem to feel that soybean plantings will be up on last year with corn down some while the stocks of soybeans as at March 01 2015 are expected to be up quite a bit on 2014. In soybean futures, investment funds are felt to be quite short so any bullish soybean numbers could see funds covering their short which would push futures price up quite quickly.
The past few days have been very quiet in the grain/oilseed markets as both buyers and sellers seem to be waiting to see what will happen with the latest USDA report. We have had new reports on grain and oilseed production and trade from the IGC and EU production numbers from both Coceral and Copa-Cogeca but these numbers seemed to do little as everyone waits for the latest USDA estimates.
Roll on Tuesday and lest see how exciting things can be.
France AgriMer – crop condition report – March 24, 2015
| Winter crops | Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % |
| Soft wheat | 32 | 58 | 9 | 1 |
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| Hard wheat | 14 | 71 | 14 | 1 |
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| Barley | 33 | 57 | 9 | 1 |
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| Spring crops | Planted March 24 2015 | Planted March 24 2014 |
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| Barley | 99% | 95% |
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@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
Due to air strikes and local fighting all the main ports in Yemen have been closed temporarily.
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $49/50.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $8/9.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t | $11/12.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $16/17.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 596 | Up 5 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 456 | Up 33 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 597 | Down 20 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 647 | Up 12 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 390 | Up 6 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 806 | Up 27 | x |
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR MARCH 2015/MAY 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 227>>223 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 251/254 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 208/210 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 214/220 est. | x |
| Wheat, Romania | USD 208/214 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen | USD 202/204 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen | USD 200/202 | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 225/235 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 185/190 old crop | x |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD 178/185 old crop | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 201/203 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 175/178 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 195/198 old crop | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 255/260 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 181>>178 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 192/194 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 170/173 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 177/180 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 170/174 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 169/176 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 173/176 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 262>>>253 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 168/172 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 430/450 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 530/550 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 389/393 | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 365/369 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 410/418 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 368/381 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 650/660 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 401/406 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 370/374 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 382/386 | x |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 410/415 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 380/390 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 705/715 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 159/162 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 268/271 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 336/339 m/t | x |
USA corn by-product sales were not all that exciting this week and at the end of the week, except for corn gluten meal, most of the market was unchanged. The corn gluten prices have continued to slip as prices for alternate high protein items, like fishmeal, are dropping quickly. Fishmeal has seen a drop of at least USD 200 m/t in the past couple of weeks and some of the CGM demand of recent months is expected to swing back to fishmeal. If you look at CGM prices for the last three weeks you will see that they are down by USD 50 m/t but down by close to USD 150 m/t from the sky-high levels seen one year ago.
US DDGS was even quite boring this week with no major changes in prices and no sudden surges in demand. Prices to Asia in containers seem to be up a little due to container rate increases. DDGS will continue to be controlled largely by corn prices and by the production of ethanol. Since DDGS are mainly an ethanol by-product any change in ethanol production will certainly change the supply of DDGS. For now ethanol production seems to be steady which is leaving DDGS production just chugging along at a level where, for now, supply and demand seem to be in reasonable balance.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 520/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia USD 990/1020 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 1020/1050 m/t CNF Asia |
It is interesting to see that animal protein prices in Asia are up a little this week but buyers are saying that they are bidding much lower for May/June shipment. Of course, by that time we will see soymeal prices pushed lower due to South America and we should see new season fishmeal coming out of Peru. These two factors will make MBM alternatives quite attractive to buyers. The general feeling is that animal protein prices should move lower in coming weeks. However, as poultry meal prices have been depressed as had feathermeal then these two may not move lower and could move up in coming weeks.
In the USA domestic market, prices for most animal protein items were up on the week but this should not last too long as soymeal is getting very competitive and this will probably push MBM out of some feed uses. As in Asia, feathermeal in the USA was higher this week as the effects of avian flu seem to have left the market and buyers are back covering feathermeal needs.
If vegetable proteins stay weak then it will be very difficult to expect any higher prices for animal proteins so buyers need to keep a close watch on both.
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 425/435 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 490/510 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 490/510 m/t |
| Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro | USD 660/680 m/t |
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The Peru Southern Area fishing quota is set at 375,000 m/t of fish which should yield about 87,000 m/t of fishmeal over the period of the quota – up to July 31, 2015. The amount of the exploratory catch is deducted from the quota which leaves about 360,000 m/t for commercial fishing.
According to this week's fishmeal report from MSI Ceres in Peru, there has been some business traded for the new season with prices sagging lower as was to be expected. The indication prices shown below are about what is being seen in the Peru market this week. Reports are that about 30,000 m/t of new season fishmeal has been booked. There is nothing startling in the quantities booked as most major buyers are still sitting and waiting for the main fishing season or perhaps waiting to see exactly how far prices may drop.
Needless to say, everyone in Peru is very happy to see some new fishing after quite a long spell with no fishing at all. It ups ones mood a little to think that everyone will be back to work again and that fresh fishmeal supplies will be flowing. Although the southern supply is not huge it is at least some supply and something for buyers and sellers to argue over.
A report out of Chile this week shows the same story as for Peru with prices for most qualities dropping by at least USD 100 m/t with most experts feeling that prices will have quite a bit further to drop once we get into May/June.
It is interesting to note that Chile has been importing fishmeal from Europe to keep the salmon growers working and this at prices lower than what has been seen recently in either Chile or Peru.
According to the latest IFFO report the price for 70% Icelandic fishmeal is now down to USD 1,525 m/t with Danish 72% protein averaging about USD 1,595 m/t.
Also from the IFFO, world fishmeal production so far in 2015 is at almost exactly the same level as in 2014 this due to higher production in Northern Europe making up for the drop in production in Chile and Peru – total world production for 2015 is estimated at just under 195,000 m/t.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,660 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,550 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,900 |
| Chile fishmeal | 65 protein | 2,000 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,610 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1650/1570 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1700/1720 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1800/1820 m/t | 1800/1850 |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1950/1970 m/t | 1850/1880 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1970/1990 m/t | 1960/1990 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1980/2000 m/t | 1980/2030 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2000/2020 m/t | 2000/2050 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2500/2550 | No price |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2600/2650 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2550/2600 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2900/3000 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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