Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 07, 2015
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
13+220 Quartier La Galine, D-99, Mas Martin, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
We are changing our France office location shortly, probably the first week of April, if all the details can be sorted out in time. Phone numbers, faxes, emails will all remain the same – only the mailing address will change. And, it is changing to quite an interesting French address:
– we will be at: 1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy De Provence, 13210 France.
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Looking down all the grain and oilseed prices this week it seems to just be lower, lower and lower. This week it is tough to find grain/feed related that moved higher.
Although corn prices did end up being a couple of dollars lower on the week, it was actually a case of corn being up a couple then down a couple, up and down – all in a range that never seemed to get beyond USD 2 or 3. One would expect that corn futures might have gone lower, especially when you see the weakness in soybean and wheat futures – but no, corn seemed just want to stick at about where it is until something new and exciting happens that will directly affect corn.
The market expects that there is not going to be any large change in US cash or futures prices until after the next USDA planting intentions report at the end of the month. Who knows, perhaps there will be something exciting in the USDA WASDE report that is out next week but chances are small of any big surprises.
And then there are soybeans and soymeal, the big losers of the week, with beans down by about USD 16 m/t while meal was down only slightly less at about USD 14 to 15 m/t down on the week. It looks like the Brazil truck strike may be over and shipment will start flowing again. And then there is the Argentina soybean harvest that will be underway shortly and, according to some experts, may be even larger than recent forecasts. On the other hand, the final Brazil soybean harvest number is expected to be down a little from forecasts – perhaps 1% down.
It is funny to that last week, while Brazil truckers were on strike, the story was that China business was coming back to the US and this week, with the strike over, China business is back to Brazil with the possibility of further cancellation of US soybean orders. It is a good thing that we don't believe everything that we are told.
So, let's see next week what the next USDA report has to say.
France AgriMer – crop condition report – March 02, 2015
|
| Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % |
| Soft wheat | 32 | 59 | 8 | 1 |
|
| Hard wheat | 11 | 74 | 14 | 1 |
|
| Barley | 32 | 58 | 9 | 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | up $2.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000 | $48/49.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $52/53.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | up $2.00 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | up $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | down 12.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $18/19.00 | down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Ukraine to China | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $10/11.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $37/38.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $8/9.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | up $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t | $10/12.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Baltic Dry Index | 565 | up 25 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 470 | Down 51 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 587 | Up 47 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 566 | Up 51 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 352 | Up 44 | x |
|
|
|
|
|
| Bunkerworld fuel index | 845 | Down 2 | x |
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR MARCH 2015/MAY 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 219>>212 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 240/243 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 219/223 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD no prices | x |
| Wheat, Romania | USD 234/238 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen | USD 200/204 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen | USD 196/200 | X |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 225/235 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 197/205 | x |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD 175/180 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 197/200 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 195>>185 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 203/207 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 265/270 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 180>>178 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 190/193 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 170/173 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 180/184 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 166/175 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 160/170 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 172/175 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 254/257 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 160/170 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 445/455 | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 550/560 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 415>>390 | X |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 390/405 | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 415/425 | X |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 380/395 | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 645/655 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 395/410 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 375/383 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 383/390 | X |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 405/410 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 390/400 | x |
|
|
|
|
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 750>>730 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 163/168 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 260>>265 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 320>>315 m/t | x |
There was a jump in DDGS prices this week, due mainly to increased US internal transportation costs. These internal costs were soft a couple of weeks ago but, like everything else, they tend to move higher as the demand increases. Export buyers do have a little difficulty in understanding why their DDGS FOB prices are rising as corn prices fall but domestic transportation are an important factor in FOB prices and are very volatile. When you realize that for corn the cost premium to NOLA over a CME price is currently around USD 25 m/t, then you can see that domestic costs have significant effect.
Also, for export buyers, CNF prices are increasing or expected to increase as most container lines have announced increased price for container shipments – and much of the DDGS, CGM, etc is shipped in containers.
However on the positive side for buyers, there was some weakness in corn gluten meal prices this week as lower prices for all vegetable proteins was pulling the market down. With soymeal prices down by USD 15 on the week, it is difficult for CGM to maintain the recent high price levels. There is also the large drop in fishmeal prices in Europe that makes CGM less attractive in importing countries.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia USD 970/990 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 510/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 640/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 1020/1050 m/t CNF Asia |
It is a difficult situation for US poultry products and by-products as avian flu seems to be springing up in several locations in the US, which is causing many countries to immediately ban anything that has been near a US chicken (or turkey). At the beginning of the week, with China all back to work, it looked like the US export market was going to pick up but worries about avian flu put a stop to a good week.
US domestic business is steady with decent demand and reasonable levels of supply but the weakness in export business is putting pressure back on to feather meal and poultry meal as supplies are growing due to a drop in exports.
Reports from Asia say that most meat and bone meal prices to the region are steady to higher – but only a little higher. The Asia market seems to be a little top heavy but that may just be because China has been out of the game – next week will give a better idea of where price will settle for now.
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 410/420 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 440/460 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 470/490 m/t |
| Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro | USD 660/680 m/t |
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The Peruvian government announced this week that exploratory fishing will begin on March 12 in the Southern region of the country. There will be up to 50 vessels taking part in five geographic areas in the south. It will be a 5 day exploratory fishing period after which the government will use the results to determine the Southern fishing areas and quota – or so one assumes. The industry is expecting that all will go well and the full fishing in the south could begin before the end of March.
In the north there is not much change – a single vessels is conducting an exploratory voyage. One bit of news concerning the north is that for the next season there will be a quota set for the small/artisan fishing operations not just for the large commercial operators. It seems that there may have been a little bending on the rules for small/artisan fishing that a quota system may overcome.
The closer we get to a new fishing season in Peru the harder it is going to be to maintain prices at the current levels. South American fishmeal looks to be about USD 300+ to expensive versus production in the North Atlantic, so something will have to give.
I wouldn't be buying any new season Peruvian fishmeal these days unless I was looking at a very significant discount against the prices shown below. Of course, with nothing to sell the Peruvian prices below mean little or nothing.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,730 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,620 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,900 |
| Chile fishmeal | 65 protein | 2,000 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,700 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
|
|
|
|
| 65 protein | 1750/1770 m/t |
|
| 65/66 protein | 1800/1850 m/t |
|
| 67 protein standard steam | 2000/2100 m/t | 1900/1950 |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 2150/2200 m/t | 2050/2100 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 2200/2250 m/t | 2100/2150 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2250/2300 m/t | 2300/2330 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2300/2350 m/t | 2330/2350 |
|
|
|
|
| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2500/2550 | No price |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2600/2650 |
|
| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2550/2600 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2900/3000 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.