Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT March 14, 2015
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Corn and soybeans had a reasonably quite week for prices this week while wheat was just the opposite with a good rally for all types of wheat, at least in the US.
The WASDE report was a bit of a surprise for the corn market with the US ending stocks expected to be lower once again but that's what happens with good demand and strong exports. Ho. ever, as surprised as the market may have been there was no carry on effect on corn prices.
There was talk that the very high US dollar and the outbreaks of avian flu in the US are keeping a lid on prices. The dollar because buyers can't pay higher prices with a strong dollar killing them in local currency and the avian flu as a serious outbreak could possible reduce corn demand – this since corn can make up to about 75% of the poultry feed formulation.
About the only factor in the US that would seem to be able to push prices higher is stories of corn planting delays in early planting in the South but this is quite a small factor today – but as time goes on the plantings will have a much bigger effect on daily prices and trends.
Also with corn, there have been quite a few stories in the trade about Ukraine corn being shipped to the US – there is no proof of this as yet but, who knows, perhaps it could work for East Coast poultry operations.
Soybeans and meal were quiet on the week and, with all seemingly going well in Brazil and Argentina, there was little or no interest by buyers in paying higher prices. The crop ideas for everywhere just seem to be getting bigger and bigger, so we should soon be up to our ears in soybeans.
As with corn, avian flu in the US is a worry for soybeans/soymeal as up to 25% of the poultry diet could be soymeal and a spread of avian flu or just a singular bad outbreak could result in a drop in US demand.
It is funny to read that soybean exports for the week were disappointing when one realizes that so far this crop year (only 6 months) we have exported 98% of the years expected sales, so I guess that we can have the odd disappointing week.
As with most everything this week, except perhaps wheat, there seems to be little reason to expect any seriously higher prices. It looks like we may be in a trading range for a while.
France AgriMer – crop condition report – March 09, 2015
Also, Spring Barley is 46% planted versus 24% in 2014 and 17% in 2013
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| Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % |
| Soft wheat | 32 | 59 | 8 | 1 |
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| Hard wheat | 11 | 74 | 14 | 1 |
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| Barley | 33 | 58 | 9 |
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@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | down $2.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | No update | x |
| US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000 | $48/49.00 | No update | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $40/41.00 | down $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $50/51.00 | down $2.00 | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | up $1.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $30/31.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $8/9.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | up $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t | $10/11.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | up $2.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 562 | Down 3 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 378 | Down 92 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 585 | Down 2 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 606 | Up 40 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 368 | Up 16 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 814 | Down 31 | x |
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR MARCH 2015/MAY 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 231>>218 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 249/246 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 212/216 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD no prices | x |
| Wheat, Romania | USD 233>>225 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen | USD 200/203 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen | USD 196/200 | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 230/240 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 194/199 | x |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD 175/180 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 197/200 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 180/185 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 203/206 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 265/270 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 177>>174 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 188/191 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 171/174 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 181/184 | X |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 170/175 | X |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 163/174 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 168/172 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 254/257 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 163/168 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 440/460 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 550/565 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 405>>390 | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 388/405 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 420/426 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 378/395 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 650/660 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 394/405 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 375/382 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 385/390 | x |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 410/417 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 390/400 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 725/730 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 165/168 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 265/268 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 328/331 m/t | x |
The trade was saying that some of the flurry of buying for DDGS in the past couple of weeks was to try to get bookings before the container freight rate increases come into effect. The jump in demand has certainly pushed prices higher.
On the other hand, other than freight pushing up CNF prices, there seems to be little reason for any corn by-product to be moving higher. With both corn and soybean prices slipping a little on the week and no expectation of a sudden rally there is little reason to expect any price rallies in DDGS, CGM and CGF.
The very strong rally in the US dollar is making it harder for exports as a 16 to 18% increase in the value of the dollar certainly has not resulted in drop in prices for importers. While corn gluten meal prices have dropped by about USD 50 m/t in recent weeks this drop is nowhere near the increase in local currency cost for importers when they are buying in sky-high USD.
On the longer term picture – there seems to be little reason at present to expect much of rally in prices – it looks like steady to lower may be the rule.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 460/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia USD 970/990 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 650/660 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 1020/1050 m/t CNF Asia |
It seems that about every week there is another reports of avian flu surfacing in North America – first it was one small area in the US then a little in Canada and now a couple of more areas in the US. This certainly does not make business easy for poultry producers in the US or for poultry and poultry product exporters. The problem is that, as soon as there is any report of avian flu, many countries slam their borders shut against poultry items without much consideration of the logic of the situation.
There was one news report that even countries that experience avian flu have stopped US poultry imports – of course the news stories can be exaggerated or wrong.
In the US, APHIS – the health inspection folks – are trying to have a geographic "no-ship" limit of about 30km established around avian flu sites so that there is no possibility of any movement of infected product.
However, there was a little increase in export meat and bone meal prices into Asia this week – not a great deal but probably up by about USD 10 m/t CNF. Demand seems to be just a little stronger just as supply from Australia and New Zealand is dropping a little.
Within the USA MBM prices were quite boring on the week – up a little and down a little – but feathermeal had a rally in most markets do to a jump in domestic demand -- perhaps buying up stocks before avian flu limits supply.
There seems to be little reason at present to expect higher prices in the short term, so we may just stay in a plus/minus USD 10 to 15 trading range or slowly slip lower if soymeal drops lower.
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 410/420 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 450/470 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 480/500 m/t |
| Poultry meal, Pet Food grade, 64 pro | USD 660/680 m/t |
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The exploratory Southern Region fishing in Peru that was to have started on the 12th did not get going due to very bad weather, so there is a risk that the new fishing in the south may be delayed beyond the expected start date on the 26th. The Northern cruise is progressing just fine.
Word from the Peruvian government is that production of industrial fishing could increase by 30% over last year which may just mean that for 2015 the quota could go as high as 3 million m/t. However, for the moment, this is only wishful thinking until there is some official word from the government. The trade seems to feel that the first Northern quota will have to be at least 2 million m/t but some say up to 2.5 million is possible.
Needless to say all these very positive quota estimates are making buyer hold off as much as possible on buying any fishmeal from any origin as they can see the prices come tumbling down in coming weeks.
The IFFO was saying this week that they are looking for a good 2015, with fishmeal supplies probably getting back up closer to the longer term average after a couple of years of very low production. Of course this all depends on Peru – the largest fishmeal producer by far – where the new season quotas will be setting the trend for the production and the prices for 2015.
So, for fishmeal buyers, if you can hold out for a few weeks, you should see much better prices for fishmeal.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Some of the variation in European prices are due to the drop in the value of the Euro.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,730 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,670 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,900 |
| Chile fishmeal | 65 protein | 2,000 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,600 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1780/1800 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1850/1870 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 2050/2070 m/t | 1900/1950 |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 2180/2200 m/t | 2050/2100 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 2230/2250 m/t | 2100/2150 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2280/2300 m/t | 2300/2330 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 2330/2350 m/t | 2330/2350 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2500/2550 | No price |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2600/2650 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2550/2600 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2900/3000 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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