Weekly Report -- May 02, 2015

 

Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   May 02, 2015

 

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

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SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

There did not seem to be much, if any, strength in grain markets again this week. Overall you could buy corn for USD 2 or 3 m/t lower – perhaps lower depending on the seller but export positions are quite full so there are not too many deals being seen in NOLA. The corn market was affect this week by the good weather and the expected very quick farmer planting and by another outbreak of avian flu and the possible effect that this could have on corn demand – since chickens eat mainly corn.  

 

The poultry industry is very quick to point out that the avian flu outbreaks are very limited and are having only minor effect on poultry production --- but, many chickens hold (held) a different opinion.

 

Overall is was the very good planting weather along with a weak export sales week that pushed corn prices a little lower. In the short term, no one is really looking at any serious rally in corn prices – unless there is some kind of weather disaster.

 

Soybeans were also down a couple of dollars on the week with China's cancellation of some orders helping to move prices a little lower. There were some port strikes in Argentina that tended to keep prices from slipping too much but strikes should not be long lasting or too serious.

 

The weather reports so some rain in the US next week that will probably slow soybean planting a little but not enough cause any serious delays.

 

Soybeans and meal will probably tend to be steady next week due to worry about the weather and the Argentina strikes – but, if the sun comes out and strikes end then steady to lower should be the expectation for soybean/meal prices.

 

And a little about wheat, spring wheat was lower, by USD 5 m/t, on very quick planting and expected very good crops later this year. Hard Red Winter wheat was lower on the week by about USD 3 m/t….not enough to get too excited about but we did see HRW at its lowest price in 5 years. But then, with wheat, every country has been having a good year and the world wheat market is coming down in supply. When the market hits a five year low it would seem that the most likely direction would be higher but then for that one would need some bullish news and for wheat there does not seem to be any around.    

 

 

USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – April 27, 2015

 

	Planted April 27 2015	Planted 2010-2014 Average
Corn	19%	25%
Sorghum	24%	25%
Spring Wheat	55%	29%
Barley	56%	35%
Soybeans	2%	4%

@USDA

 

France AgriMer – crop condition report – April 27, 2015

 

Winter crops		Very Good %	Good %	Average %	Bad %	Very Bad %
Soft wheat	34		57	9	1
Hard wheat	18		68	13	1
Barley	33		57	9	1
Barley spring	22		73	5
Spring crops	Planted April 27 2015		Planted April 27 2014
Barley	100%		100%
Corn	75%		50%

@France AgriMer

  

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

Price changes are versus last report which was issued on the 5^th of April

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$25/26.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$46/47.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$26/27.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$27/28.00	Steady	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$18/19.00	Down $1.00	x
US PNW China: Panamax	$17/18.00	Down $2.00	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$39/40.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$50/51.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$35/36.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$33/34.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$49/50.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$30/31.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$34/35.00	Steady	x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Down $2.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Down $2.00	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Europe	$22/23.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Down $2.00	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$29/30.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$18/19.00	Down $1.00	x
Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t	$8/8.50	Steady	x
Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t	$8.50/9.00	Steady	x
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t	$12/13.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to China	$25/26.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Up $1.00	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster	$37/38.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$9/10.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t	$31/32.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t	$12/13.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$17/18.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
Baltic Dry Index	587	Down 13	x
Baltic Capesize Index	574	Up 29	x
Baltic Panamax Index	647	Down 38	x
Baltic Supramax Index	621	Down 3	x
Baltic Handisize Index	340	Down 8	x
Bunkerworld fuel index	871	Up 18	x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR MARCH 2015/MAY 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 200>>196	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 225/230	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 205/208 May/June	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 191/195 July/Aug	x
Wheat, Romania	USD 191/195 new crop	x
Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen	USD 200/202	x
Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen	USD 198/200	x
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 220/230 spot	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 176/180 new crop	x
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD no prices	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 199/201	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 177/182	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 176/180 new crop	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 240/245	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 173>>170	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 178/181	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 168/172	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 166/170	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 166/172	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 171/176	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 169/172	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 263>>>236	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 170/175	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 409/420	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 533/540	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 400/405	x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 365/370	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 415/420	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 355/360	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ	USD 570/575 now FAQ	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 408/412	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 375/380	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 390/395	x
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD 420/425	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 390/400	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   690/700 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   143/147 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   230/233 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   300/303 m/t	x

 

It has been interesting to see the drop in DDGS prices this week with prices down as much as USD 15 m/t in some parts of the US and export prices down by USD 10 to 15 m/t depending on the seller. US exporters are finding that there is increased competition from South American soymeal and that buyers need lower prices before they will look at US DDGS.

 

In the US domestic market the DDGS prices are not down as much as the export levels but then domestic supply doesn't have to face South American soymeal.

 

The USDA Co-Products Production report shows DDGS production for March at 1.81 million m/t, up by 10% over February with corn gluten feed production at 331,000 m/t and corn gluten meal at 93,000 m/t, all of which are up compared to February. Corn usage in production was up by 11% versus February but down slightly on January 2015 usage.

 

The domestic US market price for both corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal was lower on the week but this did not seem to change export prices at all as good demand kept export prices steady on the week.

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein	USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 600/610 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia  USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia  USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia  USD 970/990 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia  USD 710/720 m/t CNF Asia  USD 570/590 m/t CNF Asia  USD 850/870 m/t CNF Asia

 

    According to trade sources, the prices quoted for MBM into Asia this week were a little lower but then with Ramadan not all that far away buyers in countries like Indonesia may be slowing up in buying to avoid material arriving during the Ramadan period.

 

There was quite a bit of talk about lower fishmeal prices and the effect that this could have on MBM prices in Asia – cheaper fishmeal could just steal back some protein business. Of course, there are also lower soymeal prices which will tend to drag animal protein prices lower. Shippers in Australia and New Zealand say that supplies of animal proteins are quite good – just as demand slacks off a tad.

 

It is expected that animal protein prices for export will move lower in coming days as there just doesn't seem to be any good reason for prices to move higher – so, lower looks like the direction.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

The fishing in Peru is chugging along, only held back by on/off regional fishing bans. The last report that I have seen shows the catch up to 1.35 million m/t in the north which is just over 52% of the quota. Regarding the fishing, there is talk of the possible approach of a "Kelvin Wave" that could affect the water temperature and thus the fishing, but it is too early to know.  

 

According to the trade in Peru, the actual business booked has increased in the past few days but no one is willing to give many details on what business has actually been done and at what price. Rumors are that buyers have been able to save quite a bit on the prices listed below as producers want to get some business on the books.

 

The feeling in the market seems to be that China will be buying fishmeal shortly – or perhaps they have been but sellers are not saying – as supplies in China are slipping lower and with the quite long transit time from Peru to China it is soon going to be time for buyers to start to seriously stock up.

 

As to market prices, not too much weakness has been seen in advertised prices but the feeling is that the business booked is being done at lower levels and that in coming days all prices will have to move lower in order to get more buyers active in the market.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,630
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,560
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,800
Chile fishmeal	65 protein	1,850
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	1,640

 

 

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	1650/1670 m/t
65/66 protein	1700/1720 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1800/1820 m/t	1800/1850
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1850/1870 m/t	1850/1880
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1970/1990 m/t	1960/1990
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1980/2000 m/t	1980/2030
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	2000/2020 m/t	2000/2050
Fish oil, crude bulk	2500/2550	No price
Fish oil, crude drums	2600/2650
Fish oil, flexi tank	2550/2600
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2900/3000

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon