Weekly Report May 09, 2015

  Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   May 09, 2015

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Corn prices had a bit of an up and down week this week but by the end of the week not too much had changed in corn prices: futures were down a little while export corn prices were probably off by a dollar or two. The corn planting raced ahead with the 2015 plantings now well ahead of the 5 year average and this added to the downward pressure on corn prices. There is nothing like quick planting to get people thinking about even bigger crops.

 

It is also reported that the soils moisture levels in most corn regions are very good and, as the weather reports show, the weather looks great for the next while. So, farmers will be out planting like mad and the beginnings of the corn growth doesn't look to have any terrible weather concerns.

 

Looking at corn these days, without some really bad news, it is very difficult to be forecasting any significantly higher corn prices.

 

Soybeans were up a little on the week as strikes in Argentina got the market all excited but, like corn, there really doesn't look to be any good reason today for a serious rally in soybean prices. Weather is good, planting is coming along and China's imports are falling behind what was expected. All these factors should keep soybeans from moving higher.

 

For soymeal, the futures didn't do much this week but the cash markets in US had lower soymeal prices with the prices off by about USD 5 m/t on average. Like soybeans, not much reason for higher prices at present.

   

USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – May 04, 2015

 

	Planted May 04 2015	Planted 2010-2014 Average
Corn	55%	38%
Sorghum	29%	28%
Spring Wheat	75%	40%
Barley	75%	57%
Soybeans	13%	9%

 

Crop condition		Excellent %	Good %	Fair %	Poor %	Very Poor %
Winter wheat	8		35	37	14	6

@USDA

 

France AgriMer – crop condition report – May 04, 2015

 

Winter crops		Very Good %	Good %	Average %	Bad %	Very Bad %
Soft wheat	34		56	8	2
Hard wheat	19		67	13	1
Barley	33		56	10	1
Barley spring	25		71	4
Spring crops	Planted May 04 2015		Planted May 04 2014
Barley	100%		100%
Corn	82%		78%

@France AgriMer

  

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$25/26.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$26/27.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$46/47.00	Steady	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$26/27.00	Steady	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$27/28.00	Steady	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$19/20.00	Up $1.00	x
US PNW China: Panamax	$18/19.00	Up $1.00	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$39/40.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$50/51.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$33/34.00	Down $2.00	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$34/35.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$49/50.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$29/30.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$32/33.00	Down $2.00	X
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Down $2.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Europe	$21/22.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$29/30.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$18/19.00	Steady	x
Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t	$8/8.50	Steady	x
Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t	$8.50/9.00	Steady	x
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t	$12/13.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to China	$24/25.00	down $1.00	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster	$37/38.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$9/10.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t	$31/32.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t	$13/14.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$17/18.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Baltic Dry Index	574	Down 13	x
Baltic Capesize Index	616	Up 42	x
Baltic Panamax Index	594	Down 53	x
Baltic Supramax Index	618	Down 3	x
Baltic Handisize Index	329	Down 11	x
Bunkerworld fuel index	891	Up 20	x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR May 2015/July 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 201>>197	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 228/231	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 185/189 July/Aug	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 187/191 July/Aug	x
Wheat, Romania	USD 191/195 new crop	x
Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen	USD 194/198	x
Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen	USD 189/193	x
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 220/230 spot	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 174/178 new crop	x
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD no prices	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 193/196	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 177/185	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 172/178 new crop	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 240/245	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 173>>169	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 178/181	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 169/172	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 163/168	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 166/170	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 167/172	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 170/173	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 263>>>239	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 170/175	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 400/410	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 530/540	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 395/400	x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 360/365	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 390/400	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 350/360	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ	USD 570/575	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 410/414	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 375/380	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 390/395	x
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD 415/420	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 390/400	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   690/700 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   145/149 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   240>>235 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   300>>294 m/t	x

 

 

It is interesting to note that export DDGS prices were steady on the week while the domestic US prices were slipping lower. It seems that very good export demand coupled with jammed loading facilities have combined to keep export prices firmer than domestic prices. However, if you look out a couple of months then there could be a saving of as much as USD 10 m/t in export prices for DDGS – strictly a case of supply and demand with current demand being very good. Total exports of DDGS are down by 500,000 m/t but this is all due to China….exports to regular DDGS markets are steady with total 2015, excluding China, being about the same level as 2014.

 

The situation with corn gluten meal is much like DDGS where the export price levels are actually stronger than the domestic prices. These days it is very difficult to get any export supply of CGM through July, especially for bulk containers, as loading slots are full and containers are in short supply. There really are not any deals for CGM unless you get out into August/September. Total CGM exports for the first quarter are down very slightly from 2014.

 

Corn gluten feed prices were a little lower on the week in the domestic US market but was steady in the export market. Corn gluten feed exports are down by about 60 percent so far in 2015 – some due to a drop in demand but also due to domestic demand keeping the CGF out of the export market.

 

 

USDA US corn by-product exports – January/March 2015 – in m/t – major destinations  

 

	Corn Gluten Meal	Corn Gluten Feed	Distillers Dried Grains -- DDGS
Canada	15,100	8,600	141,700
Chile	32,600
China			911,400
Colombia	26,500	10,200	39,900
Egypt	43,500
Indonesia	42,500		57,600
Ireland		36,100	87,600
Israel		9,000
Japan			84,500
Mexico	10,500	10,000	497,500
Morocco		11,500	25,100
Peru	7,100
Philippines			25,200
South Korea			86,800
Taiwan	5,800		48,800
Thailand	9,300		108,800
Turkey			28,400
Vietnam			135,900

@USDA GATS

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein	USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 600/610 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia  USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia  USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia  USD 970/990 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia  USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia  USD 570/590 m/t CNF Asia  USD 850/870 m/t CNF Asia

 

 

The trade reports that the Asia demand for animal proteins was higher this week as buyers are trying to cover all their needs before the Ramadan period begins in mid-June. They also say that even with the demand higher there seemed to be little problem in finding supply with the result that there was little or no upward movement in prices. There were some comments that Asian buyers seem to be wanting to fix MBM supplies out into Aug/Sep which is pushing the further out prices up a little.

 

In the USA, the MBM prices are a little weaker as soymeal is more attractively priced in much of the country – if soymeal continues weak then this should move MBM lower. The avian flu problems in parts of the US don't seem to be having any further effect on poultry meal but feathermeal prices were quite soft on the week with some markets seeing a drop of USD 30 m/t.

 

 

 

USDA US animal protein exports – January/March 2015 – in m/t – major destinations  

 

	Meat and bone meal Includes poultry and Pork meal	Feathermeal
Canada	12,500
Bangladesh	2,500
China	2,700
Ecuador	2,300
Chile		5,900
Indonesia	23,300	11,000
Holland	2,700
Mexico	3,200
Philippines	4,200
Vietnam	4,300	1,300

@USDA GATS

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Fishing in Peru has been hit by some mini bans and by very bad weather –some ports were closed due to the weather. However, when fishing could be done the daily catch was still in excess of 40,000 m/t of fish per day. Up to Thursday of this week the total catch was just a shade below 1.5 million m/t, leaving about 1.1 million m/t to go.

 

The trade reports that stocks of fishmeal in Peru are getting close to 250,000 m/t with new orders seeming to be very thin. Producers are doing their best to hold prices steady but with very little business available the day will come shortly when producers will be needing to sell some inventory. Any rush to sell by producers should push prices lower but if the new business comes from increased buyer demand then perhaps prices will not be as weak as if producers are pushed to sell.

 

If you look at the European fishmeal prices below as compared to the Peru fishmeal price list then you can see that Peru quotes are still too high. Traders in Europe said that both Peru and Chile prices in Europe were down by about USD 100 m/t this week but this has not been seen as yet in the Peru export prices.

 

Looking at the possibility of new business, the trade in Peru feels that China will have to be in the market soon and, as China is the major fishmeal buyer, whatever price they pay will set the market price direction for the next few weeks…..that is if they do finally get back in the market.

 

And, also on prices, I think that one has to expect that prices will be moving lower. Looking at prices in Europe, Peru still looks to be about USD 150 m/t too high priced.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,635
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,560
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,700
Chile fishmeal	67 protein	1,750
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	1,600

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	1650/1670 m/t
65/66 protein	1700/1720 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1800/1820 m/t	1800/1850
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1850/1870 m/t	1850/1880
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1970/1990 m/t	1960/1990
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1980/2000 m/t	1980/2030
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	2000/2020 m/t	2000/2050
Fish oil, crude bulk	2500/2550	No price
Fish oil, crude drums	2600/2650
Fish oil, flexi tank	2550/2600
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2900/3000

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon