Weekly Report -- May 16, 2015

 Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   May 16, 2015

 

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

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SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

 The USDA released their first 2015/16 numbers last week in the WASDE report and, as usual, there were quite a few differences from what the "experts" had been forecasting, but that is how it normally is.

 

The USA corn yield numbers are down for next season but with the large carry-over stocks from this year there is still going to be lots of US corn available. As the USDA report points out, the numbers can all change quickly as it tend to be July that determines what the crop is going to be. From here on in the biggest driver of US corn prices is going to be weather. A number of experts are saying that corn prices are due a rally and that there is little room to move lower but lots of room to move higher. But then there are other who feel that, unless there is a major change in the weather, there is very little reason for the market to rally prior to the 2015 harvest. That is one projection that anyone could make with their eyes closed as normally, at this time of year, it is all weather markets.

 

Looking at the corn plantings, all looks very good and even with a little rain for this coming week the farmers should still be well ahead of the average planting levels.

 

In the WASDE report it was soybeans that had the major hit with everything looking just great for the soybean crop and the stocks --- it seems that this year the world is coming down in soybeans with record crops and record stocks being seen most everywhere. On the planting side in the US, all still looks good with planting running ahead of average and the weather still favoring the farmer, at least for now.

 

The USDA has forecasted a large yield number for soybeans – a number that some experts scoff at but that may just be correct. The carryout number for soybeans is also very high which, coupled with great crop yields, makes it look like we will all be swimming in soybeans for the next year. But then there is still the weather and we all know how quickly the weather can destroy all projections.

 

So for now for beans it looks like weaker is the best guess but, as I always say, watch the weather.  

 

  

USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – May 11, 2015

 

	Planted May 04 2015	Planted 2010-2014 Average
Corn	75%	57%
Sorghum	32%	33%
Spring Wheat	87%	51%
Barley	88%	58%
Soybeans	31%	20%

 

Crop condition		Excellent %	Good %	Fair %	Poor %	Very Poor %
Winter wheat	8		35	37	14	6

@USDA

 

France AgriMer – crop condition report – May 11, 2015

 

Winter crops		Very Good %	Good %	Average %	Bad %	Very Bad %
Soft wheat	35		56	8	1
Hard wheat	22		65	12	1
Barley	34		56	9	1
Barley spring	25		70	5
Spring crops	Planted May 04 2015		Planted May 04 2014
Barley	100%		100%
Corn	82%		78%

@France AgriMer

  

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$14/15.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$25/26.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$26/27.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$46/47.00	Steady	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$26/27.00	Steady	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$27/28.00	Steady	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$20/21.00	Up $1.00	x
US PNW China: Panamax	$19/20.00	Up $1.00	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$40/41.00	Up $1.00	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$50/51.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$34/35.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$35/36.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$50/51.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$30/31.00	Up 1.00	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Up 2.00	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$32/33.00	Steady	x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Europe	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$29/30.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$18/19.00	Steady	x
Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t	$8/8.50	Steady	x
Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t	$8.50/9.00	Steady	x
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t	$12/13.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to China	$26/27.00	Up $2.00	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster	$37/38.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$9/10.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$37/38.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t	$33/34.00	Up $2.00	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t	$13/14.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$18/19.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Baltic Dry Index	634	Up 60	X
Baltic Capesize Index	954	Up 338	x
Baltic Panamax Index	579	Down 15	x
Baltic Supramax Index	618	Up 10	x
Baltic Handisize Index	327	Down 2	x
Bunkerworld fuel index	899	Up 8	x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR May 2015/July 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 212/218	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 239/245	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 180/186 July/Aug	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 180/184 July/Aug	x
Wheat, Romania	USD 187/193 new crop	x
Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen	USD 194/198	x
Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen	USD 190/193	x
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 220/225 May/June	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 175/178 new crop	x
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD no prices
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 193/196	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 173/183	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 175/180 new crop	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 235/240	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 173/175	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 179/182	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 173/176	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 170/174	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 167/173	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 167/173	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 167/171	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 254>>>241	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 175/180	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 390/400	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 520/530	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 386/391	x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 345/350	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 375/380	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 340/345	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ	USD 560/570	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 400/405	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 360/366	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 370/375	X
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD 410/415	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 390/400	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   680/690 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   140/145 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   241>>236 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   301>>296 m/t	x

 

US export DDGS prices are unchanged on the week even with the domestic price down by about USD 5 m/t (USD 10 in some parts of the US)… perhaps there will be some weakness in export price next week. There was the comment in the US Grains Council report this week that US domestic buyers tend to buy in the spot market while export business tends to be a couple of months out which means that the change in cash prices may only affect the domestic market and not the export business. DDGS exporters seem to be quite well sold through August.

 

Corn gluten meal prices were a little softer this week but with sellers quoting about USD 10 m/t more for June/July shipment than for August/September --- it seems that the June/July shipment positions are all quite full and supply is tighter than later in the year.

 

Corn gluten feed was also a little lower for export on the week even though corn prices had not changed much. It is just getting more difficult to find the export slot in June/July and if one can find a slot then the export premium (basis) is higher.

 

Speaking of basis, I was in a conference a couple of weeks ago in the MENA region where one of the speakers said that only in South America are basis and premium interchangeable. Funny, but in all my years in Egypt, we seemed to only talk about "premium", as in CIF premium over Chicago. "Basis" was a term that was not at all common unless you were talking about the price in NOLA. It is interesting how things develop in different areas.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein	USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 600/610 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia  USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia  USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia  USD 950/970 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia  USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia  USD 570/590 m/t CNF Asia  USD 790/810 m/t CNF Asia

 

Animal proteins had a down week this week as the effect of lower soybean prices hit the market and in Asia demand was off quite a bit as major buyers are stocked up in advance of the Ramadan period and won't be back in the market for a few weeks.

 

China is not affected by Ramadan, so business is still quite good there and prices remained quite steady. MBM from Australia was a little lower from some exporters while feathermeal seemed to be lower from everyone – avian flu seems to be hitting poultry proteins in all markets these days as importers are switching out of poultry items, mainly due to fear rather than logic – of course, if your buyers are saying that they don't want any poultry protein then best to stop importing as the customer is always right.

 

In the US domestic market, all animal proteins are weaker as the drop in vegetable protein helps push prices lower. The avian flu problems in the US are having a serious effect on the poultry industry, especially in the turkey business where outbreaks have been the worst.

 

With few export buyers wanting to take US poultry meal or feathermeal, the pressure on prices is strong and every day seems to bring lower prices. Put avian flu together with dropping vegetable protein prices and you see very little reason for US animal protein prices to move higher.  

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

As we have seen for the past couple of weeks, fishing bans have been more the rule than the exception – due to bans, last week's catch was quite low. So we now stand with about 1.65 million m/t of fish landed which leaves about 930,000 m/t to go to complete the Northern quota.

 

Peru has had some bad fishing weather of late and then saw the arrival of a Kelvin Wave which tends to push the fish deeper into cooler water. However, all the experts feel that there is going to be little problem in catching the full quota before the end of the period.

 

Fishmeal prices in both Peru and Chile seem to have dropped lower by USD 100 to 150 m/t but there are comments in the trade of business being done another USD 50 m/t lower. At present it is very difficult to get an accurate handle on where prices are – what we do know for sure is that prices have taken a serious dip lower in the past few days.

 

The trade feels that prices are going to continue to drift lower and that this will eventually get the major buyers into the market for chunks of business --- at present they have only been buying as they need in order to not pay too much. There will be a point at which major buyers will see prices that they like and then they will scoop up the available supply.

 

One note on quality, the current production of Peruvian fishmeal is reported to be of very high quality and producers seem to have little trouble in making the higher quality grades.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,653
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,527
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,650
Chile fishmeal	67 protein	1,700
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	1,610

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	1500/1550 m/t
65/66 protein	1550/1600 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1650/1700 m/t	1690/1720
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1700/1750 m/t	1730/1750
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1820/1870 m/t	1800/1820
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1830/1880 m/t	1820/1850
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	1850/1900 m/t	1850/1900
Fish oil, crude bulk	2500/2550	No price
Fish oil, crude drums	2600/2650
Fish oil, flexi tank	2550/2600
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2950/3050

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon