Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT May 23, 2015
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Corn prices were up and down just a little this week as there seemed to be good buying interest from export buyers – in particular whenever the futures market dipped a little. Corn prices ended the week either unchanged or down a couple of dollars. There are a number of corn market experts who seem to feel that there is still some room for prices to slip lower, perhaps USD 5 to 10 m/t lower but there are just as many experts saying that a change in the weather could easily push corn price up by USD 10 m/t. Of course, they are both right, it just depends on what day you want to guess the market will change.
On the weather side of things, we have really been blessed with exceptional weather for the planting and starting the corn crops off which has resulted in lower prices and a great many very short speculators in the futures market. Once we see a bad weather forecast there will probably be a dandy rally in corn prices – perhaps a short term rally, but one that should scare a bunch of the spec shorts out of the futures market. One thing that you can certainly count on is that one of these days there will be a bullish weather report and things will get very exciting in the corn market.
Soybeans had another down week this week with futures dropping by USD 10 to 12 m/t on the news that the soybean crops in South America look to be growing bigger and bigger and the US weather for planting and growing was just wonderful. Even the longer term weather reports for the US look to be just about perfect.
It could also be that the weakness at the end of the week had as much to do with the long weekend in the US as it did with the great weather. Traders tend to try to get all their business completed before a long weekend and this could have helped to push both cash and futures lower.
The story for soybeans is much the same as for corn --- huge crops, good weather, little or no bad news --- so steady to lower prices until something happens to scare the soybean market.
USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – May 18, 2015
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| Planted May 18 2015 | Planted 2010-2014 Average |
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| Corn | 85% | 75% |
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| Sorghum | 38% | 38% |
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| Spring Wheat | 94% | 65% |
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| Barley | 95% | 70% |
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| Soybeans | 45% | 36% |
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| Crop condition | Excellent % | Good % | Fair % | Poor % | Very Poor % | |
| Winter wheat | 8 | 36 | 36 | 14 | 6 | |
| Spring wheat | 7 | 58 | 31 | 3 | 1 | |
| Barley | 11 | 53 | 33 | 3 |
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@USDA
France AgriMer – crop condition report – May 18, 2015
| Winter crops | Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % | |
| Soft wheat | 35 | 56 | 8 | 1 |
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| Hard wheat | 25 | 63 | 11 | 1 |
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| Barley | 34 | 56 | 9 | 1 |
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| Barley spring | 25 | 70 | 5 |
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| Spring crops | Planted May 18 2015 | Planted May 18 2014 |
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| Barley | 100% | 100% |
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| Corn | 98% | 96% |
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@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $20/21.00 | steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $40/41.00 | steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $50/51.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t | $8.50/9.00 | Up $0.50 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t | $9.00/9.50 | Up $0.50 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $9/10.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 596 | Down 40 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 816 | down 138 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 549 | Down 30 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 627 | Up 9 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 327 | No change | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 883 | Down 16 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR June 2015/August 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 213/216 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 245/249 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 183/188 July/Aug | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/185 July/Aug | x |
| Wheat, Romania | USD 193/198 new crop | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen | USD 193/197 | x |
| Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen | USD 188/192 | x |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 220/225 May/June | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 178/182 new crop | x |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD no prices | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 194/197 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 190/193 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 178/182 new crop | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 237/242 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 170/173 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 180/183 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 173/177 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 170/175 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 168/174 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 167/174 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 168/172 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 252>>>239 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 170/175 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 391/397 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD no prices | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 380/385 | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 346/352 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 375/380 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 337/345 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ | USD 560/570 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 380/390 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 360/365 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 365/370 | x |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD 400/405 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 400/410 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 680/690 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 140/145 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 247>>242 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 302>>297 m/t | x |
DDGS prices seemed to be confused this week with some reports having prices moving higher while others had prices lower – but perhaps all the different prices are correct as the US domestic transport logistics prices are highly variable. Barge rates to the USGulf pushed prices up by about USD 5 m/t in Nola while west coast USA prices dipped lower. The lower prices in the west has attracted some good Asian buying interest so any price bargains will disappear quickly.
The effect of avian flu in the central US has also had an effect on DDGS prices as the slaughter of more than 30 million birds has reduced DDGS feed demand, at least for the short term. However, most of the DDGS comments in the trade say that export DDGS prices (and to some degree domestic prices) will depend greatly on what China does in coming months with their corn, sorghum and DDGS imports.
The domestic price for corn gluten meal in the US was off by as much as USD 10 m/t but this drop was not seen in export markets as most exporters are sold out for June and July and they aren't giving any discounts for August/September shipment.
With corn prices probably going to be very up/down over coming weeks we should also see quite a bit of price variability in corn by-products with most of the risk being for higher prices as there doesn't seem to be too much room for prices to drop lower.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/610 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 950/970 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 570/590 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein prices in the domestic US market all seemed to be a little lower this week but in some areas feathermeal was as much as USD 40 m/t lower and MBM has seen a drop of USD 30 m/t in most domestic markets. These lower domestic prices have not as yet been seen in the export market but they certainly will move into the export side very quickly. Much like DDGS, the exporters of animal proteins are full up with business into Aug/Sep, so there will not be any softness in price for buyers looking for nearby shipments – the weakness will all be out a few weeks.
Prices into Asia have not as yet dropped but it is expected that this will happen shortly as with weaker world soymeal prices and some markets fully covered for the Ramadan period (mid-June to mid-August) then new supply should outpace demand for the next few weeks.
The avian flu situation in the US is having a serious effect on feathermeal prices in the US but is not having quite as much effect on poultry meal – at present US poultry meal and feathermeal are about the lowest priced in the export market but many international buyers are avoiding US supply.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Lots of short term fishing bans in Peru coupled with some very bad weather and port closures kept the fishing catch low last week but things are still progressing with the catch now at 1.84 million m/t leaving about 740,000 m/t to go to reach quota --- it seems that everyone is now quite certain that the full quota will be landed.
As a matter of information the catch to date represents about 427,000 m/t of fishmeal and about 48,000 m/t of fishoil.
Fishmeal prices seem to be slipping a little lower every week but there still does not seem to be any large volume buying – unless it is being done but not reported, as is very possible. According to the latest trade estimates, there is probably close to 320,000 m/t of unsold fishmeal in stock in Peru. While this may sound like quite a pile of fishmeal, it wouldn't take much of an increase in new business to make a large hole in the available supply.
It was also interesting to read in the MSI Ceres report this week that there have been no shipments of fishmeal at all to the EU – most everything shipped is going to Asia. With fishmeal prices in Europe being lower than what has been seen from Peru and Chile there has been no reason for major buyers in Europe to be looking south. However, as Peru/Chile prices slip lower and northern Europe fishmeal gets harder to source then we should see some EU interest appear in Peru and Chile. One other point regarding Europe is that Chile has been importing European fishmeal since Peru had no supply and the imports continue as Europe is still less expensive that Peru or Chile.
There is still lots of talk about an El Nino event and the effect on the biomass but so far it is only talk without much in the way of facts to disturb some of the wild stories and concerns about an El Nino disaster.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,620 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,540 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,650 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,710 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,580 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1450/1500 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1500/1550 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1550/1600 m/t | 1550/1600 |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1600/1650 m/t | 1600/1650 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1700/1750 m/t | 1700/1750 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1750/1800 m/t | 1750/1800 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1800/1850 m/t | 1820/1850 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2200/2250 | 1900/2000 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2300/2350 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2250/2300 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2700/2750 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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