Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 12, 2015
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Well, this was USDA WASDE week and there were a few surprises in all the numbers. Perhaps not really surprises as most of what happened had been anticipated but the confirmation by USDA of what the experts had been saying did seem to set the trend in prices for the next while.
Most everyone expected the numbers on corn with most experts now saying that we have seen the low price on corn for the year and things can only go higher from here. Perhaps the experts are correct on the futures side of things but for the actual crop there is still talk about low corn yields in some areas and some above average rainfall in corn areas. Will this weather bother the harvest or the finishing of the corn crop – probably not much but any bullish news will tend to move prices higher now that we seem to have seen the lows.
Corn futures did finish the week about USD 10 m/t higher and there are expectations of higher futures prices come Monday.
The WASDE report seemed to be about neutral for soybeans and the market prices for beans and meal did very little on the week with soybeans up by USD 3 to 4 but no change in soymeal prices.
While it is true that soybeans had a very active futures market on Friday, with soybeans hitting a six year low, the futures closed about unchanged after all the excitement of the day was over. All the soybean excitement was between the issuing the WASDE report and the closing of the market and it was only futures that jumped all over while cash prices were relatively calm.
The feeling for soybeans at the end of the week was that perhaps prices can move even lower in coming weeks.
And while the US is all excited about the WASDE report, thousands of farmers in Europe descended on Brussels to protest the falling prices of EU farm products. The EU has been hit very hard by the embargo on shipments to Russia, the cancellation of EU dairy quotas, huge crops of almost everything --- all of which have combined to cause prices to tumble. The EU, being as socialistic as it is, is expected to support farmers in their time of need. But then the farmers probably do have a valid complaint that the new EU CAP (common agriculture policy) program is costing them too much more money at a time when they don't have any extra funds.
USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – September 07, 2015
| Crop condition | Excellent % | Good % | Fair % | Poor % | Very Poor % | |
| Corn | 19 | 49 | 22 | 7 | 3 | |
| Sorghum | 12 | 56 | 25 | 5 | 2 | |
| Soybeans | 14 | 49 | 26 | 8 | 3 | |
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| Harvested: | 2015 | 2014 | 5 year avge |
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| Barley | 95 | 78 | 82 |
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| Spring wheat | 94 | 55 | 76 |
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| Sorghum | 18 | 26 | 24 |
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@USDA
France AgriMer – crop condition report – September 07, 2015
| Spring crops | Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % | |
| Corn | 9 | 47 | 24 | 15 | 6 | |
| Wheat soft | 21 | 56 | 17 | 5 | 1 | |
@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $14/14.50 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $50/51.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $18/19.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $55/56.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $39/40.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $36/37.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Down $3.00 | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Down $3.00 | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $3.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $34/35.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t | $8.00/8.50 | steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t | $8.50/9.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 818 | Down 56 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1198 | Up 11 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 735 | Down 102 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 810 | Down 60 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 460 | Down 25 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 626 | Down 34 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR September 2015/December 2015
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 208/215 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 218/227 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 168/171 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 177/181 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 178/182 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 177/179 | X |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 175/177 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 220/227 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 167/170 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 173/175 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 160/165 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 174/178 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 235/240 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 179/182 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 190/193 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 155/163 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 154/161 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 163/167 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 183/185 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 166/171 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 204/207 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 135/140 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 341/348 | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 391/398 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 379/383 | X |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 347/355 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 372/379 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 332/338 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ | USD 535/540 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 377/381 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 366/371 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 364/369 | X |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD no prices | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 345/355 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 650/660 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 155/158 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 185/188 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 252/255 m/t | x |
There was not a great deal of activity in the export market for corn by-products this weeks as most buyers seemed to be quite happy waiting for the end of the week to see what the WASDE report had to say. Unfortunately for buyers the WASDE was bullish corn so we could easily see higher export prices come next week. However, some trade reports say that for DDGS there may be a building of inventory and that buyers could be a little aggressive in their bidding and sellers may be more in a position to look at low bids. The situation is not the same with corn gluten meal as most shippers seem to be well sold into late October with prices for Nov/Dec about USD 20 m/t higher than Sep/Oct levels – but then this could also have been in anticipation of higher corn prices.
I am off to Algeria on Monday to talk about US corn and DDGS in a US Grains Council seminar. Very little US corn goes to Algeria these days while DDGS is an unknown item in the local feed formulations. Perhaps we can help to change all that with next week's seminar. The thing about a feed item like DDGS is that once people understand the product and how it can be of benefit and have a reliable source of supply then market demand builds quickly.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 640/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 640/660 m/t CNF Asia USD 820/850 m/t CNF Asia |
There does seem to be some buying interest in Asia for meat and bone meal but, as last week, the buyers are bidding well below the current export prices --- everyone expects that lower vegetable protein prices will pull MBM prices lower. Neither Australia nor New Zealand is reported to have much MBM for export at present so this may hold prices steady for a bit.
In the US domestic market, meat and bone meal prices are lower as is feathermeal but poultry meal is a tad higher this week. Reports say that in some areas of the US the feathermeal prices is down by USD 30 to 40m/t.
US soybeans and soymeal were not lower on the week so there was not much pressure on animal proteins to drop lower and this week's Jacobsen report says that they don't see much more room for price declines in the animal protein market.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The Peruvian Government exploratory fishing trip results are due at the end of the month but there is some preliminary information that has the percentage of juvenile fish at a very high level. There are also continuing stories that the next fishing season could start in early October and that is only three weeks or so away.
The trade reports that there is very little business in the market this week but then most of the trade also says that unsold stocks are actually quite low with some producers sold out. Estimates are that stocks may be as low as 120,000 m/t with very limited supply of higher grade fishmeal. It is also said that producers are not making any offers but are only responding to firm bids from buyers.
The trade is still full of horror stories about a possible El Nino and the terrible effects that it could have but much of this is just bumph and nonsense – we need more time to see if a serious El Nino event will develop for Peru.
The MSI Ceres report this week includes a story from the local press about "black market" fishmeal. The story is that some vessels that are authorized for food fish are actually catching and processing anchovy for fishmeal – this outside of any authorized quota. The news report also says that as many as 100 foreign fishing vessels may be involved. Imagine – black market fishmeal – who would have thought.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,575 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,465 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,520 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,590 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,565 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1370/1390 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1410/1430 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1450/1460 m/t |
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| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1480/1500 m/t | 1480/1500 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1580/1600 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t | 1630/1650 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1680/1700 m/t | 1650/1670 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2050 | 1700/1800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2450 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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