Weekly Grain Report -- Sep 27, 2105

Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   September 27, 2015

 

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SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Most grain prices moved higher this week: corn up by USD 4 to 5 m/t, soybeans up by USD 7 to 9 m/t, US SRW wheat up USD 7 to 8 m/t, US HRW wheat up by USD 6 to 7 m/t --- only soymeal prices didn't change much.

 

It seems that most of the grains were a little tired of falling prices so it was about time for a little rally in prices and it really was just a little rally. These days a change of USD 5 to 10 m/t on a week seems like a very small change – this compared with the volatility of weeks past.

 

Looking at corn prices, for most of the world – except parts of Africa for white maize – there seems to be more than enough yellow corn for everyone. The USA harvest is rushing along and this should keep prices from rallying in the short term but the feeling is that, while September will be all low prices, October/November will probably move to higher price levels. According to some trade reports, USA farmers are holding on to much of the corn crop as they do not like the low prices seen today. Slow selling by the farmers can lead to higher prices in coming weeks.

 

The weather for the US corn harvest still looks great so those combines will be out there running up and down the fields and the near record crop will be building – probably not much of a reason to expect higher prices in the short term. However, once the corn harvest is over we could/should see corn prices move higher.

 

Soybeans were higher on the week, this due mainly to the China/USA agreement on record soybean sales. While the harvest is charging along and prices should probably be a little weaker the news of confirmation of a massive sale to China certainly stops any price weakness developing this week.  

 

As with corn, the soybean harvest should see dry weather in much of the US, so should race ahead this week. Also as corm, the US farmers don't seem to want to sell new crop soybeans so are holding on to stocks waiting for higher prices.

 

 

USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – September 21, 2015

 

Crop condition		Excellent %	Good %	Fair %	Poor %	Very Poor %
Corn	19		49	22	7	3
Sorghum	12		54	26	6	2
Soybeans	15		46	27	9	3
Harvested:	2015		2014	5 year avge
Corn	10		7	15
Soybeans	7		3	7
Sorghum	26		30	28

@USDA

 

 

 

France AgriMer – crop condition report – September 21, 2015

 

Spring  crops		Very Good %	Good %	Average %	Bad %	Very Bad %
Corn	10		46	24	15	5
Harvested:	2015		2014
Corn	91%		80%

@France AgriMer

  

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$14/14.50	Steady	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$24/25.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$25/26.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$49/50.00	Steady	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf South Africa	$34/35.00	New	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$33/34.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$31/32.00	Down $1.00	X
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$18/19.00	Steady	x
US PNW China: Panamax	$17/18.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$42/43.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$53/54.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$39/40.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$39/40.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$53/54.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$30/31.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$35/36.00	Steady	x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Down $2.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Europe	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$31/32.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$16/17.00	Down $1.00	x
Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t	$7.50/8.00	Steady	x
Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t	$8.00/8.50	Steady	x
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t	$14/15.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to China	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster	$38/39.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$14/15.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$38/39.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t	$39/40.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t	$17/18.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$31/32.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	x
Baltic Dry Index	943	Down 17	x
Baltic Capesize Index	2024	Up 29	x
Baltic Panamax Index	744	Down 9	x
Baltic Supramax Index	733	Down 29	x
Baltic Handisize Index	408	Down 18	x
Bunkerworld fuel index	618	Down 2	x

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR September 2015/December 2015

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 221/228	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 230/233	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 175/178	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 184/188	x
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 184/187	x
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 182/184	x
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	USD 180/182	x
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 220/225	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 165/171	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 173/175	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 166/173	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 178/181	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 225/230	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 173/177	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 188/191	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 160/166	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 161/168	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 166/169	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 177/180	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 172/175	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas or NOLA	USD 199/202	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 145/150	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 347/353	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 397/403	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 376/382	x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 343/349	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 365/372	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 336/342	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ	USD 540/545	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 382/387	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 360/365	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 364/370	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 360/366	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   630/640 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   155/160 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   181/184 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   235/238 m/t	x

 

 

 

Both domestic and export prices for all corn by-product moved lower this week as the corn harvest raced ahead and building supplies of corn pushed by-products down to seasonal low price levels. This is not at all surprising as harvest pressure normally results in the low prices of the year.

 

The US Grains Council's (USGC) weekly report mentions that some CNF prices for DDGS were down as much as USD 20 m/t this week into Asia. A good chunk of this price drop is due to falling container freight rates. The USGC also says that export demand has fallen of considerably in the past couple of weeks --- perhaps as buyers wait to see just how far down prices can go as the harvest builds.

 

Corn gluten meal is at the lowest price level that has been seen for a few months but while the price is quite low for Sep/Oct it jumps up by USD 20 to 30 m/t as you get into Nov/Dec shipment positions.

 

There is portably not too much chance of the export prices moving higher in the next couple of weeks but a sudden jump in export demand could change all that. Turkey is reported to have bought quite a bit of DDGS – even with GM problems – and China could certainly jump in as a big buyer.   

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia  USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia  USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 510/530 m/t CNF Asia  USD 640/650 m/t CNF Asia  USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 470/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia  USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia  USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia

 

Animal protein prices into the major markets in Asia all seemed to slip a little lower this week with most of the reason for the weakness said to be due to a lack of buyers in the market. The Asian animal feed business is a little slow at present and this has caused the demand for feed items to slack off a little. One of the major USA reports was saying that there is also a very good supply of alternative ingredients to MBM which is causing MBM prices in Asia to slide lower. There was some comment this week that animal protein supplies from both Australia and New Zealand are getting a little tighter so there could be some attempt by exporters to move prices higher.

 

In the USA domestic market, MBM prices were lower on the week but feathermeal and poultry meal prices were unchanged. There are some comments that poultry meal prices could move lower as there has been a drop in the export of some poultry cuts which may increase the rendering and put more poultry meal into the market.

 

Also, with the soybean harvest just starting to roll along there will be pressure on soymeal prices and this will spread to pressure on animal proteins – lower prices seem to be what is expected.  

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

There is very little to be said about fishmeal this week, as most of the important people in the business are on their way to Germany for next week's IFFO meetings. Not too much happens just prior to major meetings, as both buyers and sellers expect important things to happen when all the top industry people get together. We need to wait a week and see if anything exciting does happen.

 

Peru and Chile fishmeal and fishoil exports – by destination – January to July 2015 – in m/t

– major destinations only

 

	Peru Fishmeal	Chile Fishmeal	Peru Fishoil	Chile Fishoil
Canada		8,000	7,000
China	301,000	30,000	4,000
Chile	14,000
Denmark			17,000	4,000
Japan	12,000	8,000		2,000
South Korea		11,000
Taiwan	12,000
Vietnam	5,000
Ecuador	5,000
USA			4,000
Total All	363,000	71,000	53,000	8,000

@Andes Connections

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,610
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,465
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,550
Chile fishmeal	67 protein	1,650
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	1,625

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	1370/1390 m/t
65/66 protein	1410/1430 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1450/1460 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1480/1500 m/t	1480/1500
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1580/1600 m/t	1580/1600
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1630/1650 m/t	1630/1650
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	1680/1700 m/t	1650/1670
Fish oil, crude bulk	2000/2050	1700/1800
Fish oil, crude drums	2100/2150
Fish oil, flexi tank	2150/2200
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2400/2450

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon