Weekly Report -- September 19, 2015

Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   September 19, 2015

 

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

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SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

All the grain and oilseed markets moved a little lower this week, except for wheat which ended up finishing the week where it started.

 

Soybeans are really suffering from the China effect and as soon as there is the slightest amount of negative news out of China the soybean market drops lower. It is interesting that China bought US soybeans this week but concerns over future soybean business seemed much more important.

 

There has been a lot of wet weather for beans this week but much of that is expected to clear up and we should have warm and sunny weather for a few days so that farmers who can harvest will be able to get out in the fields. The USDA issues their first 2015 soybean harvest report on Monday.

 

Other than the fact that soybean prices are getting very low there doesn't seem to be much reason to expect any sudden major upturn in prices…..so, steady to lower looks to be the trend in soybean and soymeal prices.

 

Corn prices were higher early in the week but then the market started to sip lower as there seemed to be no real justification for lower prices. With the harvest just kicking off in most of the USA and pressure on storage and transport building this is the time of year when prices tend to be at their lowest and this year looks to be about the same as most other years with the lowest prices being in September/October, as the corn harvest rolls along.

 

However, with corn, a number of sources are saying that today is a buying opportunity and that prices will be moving higher, perhaps USD 10 m/t or so, once we get past this initial harvest pressure. Both the futures and the USDA price ideas for early 2015 are higher than current price levels, so there does seem to be good support in the opinion that corn prices are going to higher.  

 

There was also the word out of the Ukraine that they expect their corn crop to come in at about 15% below the last USDA estimates – if so, this could have a serious effect on Ukraine corn exports and for corn buyers in the Middle East and North Africa.

 

USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – September 14, 2015

 

Crop condition		Excellent %	Good %	Fair %	Poor %	Very Poor %
Corn	19		49	22	7	3
Sorghum	11		56	26	5	2
Soybeans	15		46	27	9	3
Harvested:	2015		2014	5 year avge
Barley	95		78	82
Corn	5		4	9
Spring wheat	97		72	86
Sorghum	22		28	26

@USDA

 

 

France AgriMer – crop condition report – September 14, 2015

 

Spring  crops		Very Good %	Good %	Average %	Bad %	Very Bad %
Corn	9		46	24	15	6
Harvested:	2015		2014
Corn	87%		65%

@France AgriMer

  

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$14/14.50	Steady	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$25/26.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$49/50.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$31/32.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$34/35.00	Steady	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$32/33.00	Down $1.00	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$18/19.00	Steady	x
US PNW China: Panamax	$17/18.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$42/43.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$54/55.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$39/40.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$40/41.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$54/55.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$31/32.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t	$32/33.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$35/36.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Down $2.00	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$29/30.00	Down $2.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Down $2.00	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Europe	$25/26.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Down $2.00	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$32/33.00	Down $2.00	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$17/18.00	Down $1.00	x
Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t	$7.50/8.00	Down $0.50	X
Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t	$8.00/8.50	Down $0.50	X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t	$14/15.00	Down $1.00	x
Ukraine to China	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster	$38/39.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$14/15.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$38/39.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t	$39/40.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t	$17/18.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$31/32.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Down $1.00	x
Baltic Dry Index	960	Up 142	x
Baltic Capesize Index	1995	Up 797	x
Baltic Panamax Index	753	Up 18	x
Baltic Supramax Index	762	Down 48	x
Baltic Handisize Index	426	Down 34	x
Bunkerworld fuel index	620	Down 6	x

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR September 2015/December 2015

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 210/216	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 221/226	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 167/171	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 177/181	x
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 176/180	x
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 179/182	x
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	USD 176/179	x
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 218/225	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 155/162	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 175/177	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 166/171	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 176/180	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 223/228	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 171/176	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 186/189	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 160/165	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 157/164	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 165/171	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 181/184	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 170/174	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 196/200	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 140/145	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 349/353	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 390/403	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 384/388	x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 355/362	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 379/383	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 339/344	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ	USD 540/545	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 380/384	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 363/368	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 369/375	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 345/355
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   645/650 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   162/166 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   186/189 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   245/248 m/t	x

 

Like a lot of feed items this week, the market for DDGS seemed to be quite slow as buyers were all thinking that prices should be moving lower and no one wants to pay too much. There was also a dip in prices for both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed this week, especially for September/October shipment. The price for Nov/Dec was only down a little for all corn by-products: DDGS, CGM, CGF.

 

According to the USDA reports the DDGS export prices were off by about USD 5 m/t compared to last week with corn gluten meal down by USD 12 to 15 m/t. Corn gluten feed was a bit harder to determine but looks to be down by about USD 5 m/t. The USDA reports also said that domestic US demand was down on the week which helped push price lower.

 

This week's corn and DDGS seminar in Algeria, a US Grains Council event, went very well with over 35 buyers in attendance. There was a lot of interest in feed formulations and least cost formulation software. Attendees appreciated the fact that the presentations on formulations were given by a hands-on poultry man, who could easily answer all the many audience questions.      

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia  USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia  USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 520/540 m/t CNF Asia  USD 640/650 m/t CNF Asia  USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia  USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia  USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia  USD 770/790 m/t CNF Asia

 

Meat and bone meal prices in Asia have taken a tumble lower as soymeal prices weaken and pressure build on animal protein prices. The problem with the sudden drop in Asian prices is that there is quite bit of unshipped business on the books at prices as much as USD 50 m/t higher….importers look to be facing losses on current stock if the prices continue lower.

 

The feeling in Asia seems to be that prices will go lower in coming weeks, especially with soybeans hitting such low price levels. There are not many buyers in the market and those that are buying are bidding low and taking smaller quantities….everyone is looking for lower prices.

 

Both USA export and domestic prices are lower this week – exports due to a drop in demand and domestic due to very good supplies and low cost soymeal and low cost DDGS. There just seems to be too many alternate protein sources at quite good prices these days, so tough to expect to keep any prices up.

 

For now it looks like lower prices is what will happen in the short term.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

This week's major earthquake in Chile also shook up the fishmeal business as there are very serious concerns that the Chilean industry could be badly damaged – but it is still a little too early o know for sure.

 

Before the quake the business was very quiet in Peru as there is not much left to sell and not many buyers in the market – the Chile situation will probably push prices higher and get more buyers involved in Peru – at least for a little until the full situation in Chile is better understood.

 

The results of the Peru Imarpe cruise will be know shortly and we are all getting set for a good report and an early fishing season with a reasonable quota --- of course all this is just hope.

 

On the price side of things – if the Chile situation is not too good then prices will move quickly higher as buyers try to find supply wherever possible. If all is ok in Chile then the trend looks to be to prices moving up a little every week as supplies disappear.

 

The IFFO (International Fishmeal & Fish Oil Organisation) annual conference is getting close –

 it will be on in Berlin from the 28^th of September for three days and all the important people

in the industry will be there – well almost all. Normally there is quite a lot of business

done at these meetings but the situation is a little different this year so it may be difficult to

do much new business.

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,625
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,480
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,550
Chile fishmeal	67 protein	1,620
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	1,590

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	1370/1390 m/t
65/66 protein	1410/1430 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1450/1460 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1480/1500 m/t	1480/1500
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1580/1600 m/t	1580/1600
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1630/1650 m/t	1630/1650
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	1680/1700 m/t	1650/1670
Fish oil, crude bulk	2000/2050	1700/1800
Fish oil, crude drums	2100/2150
Fish oil, flexi tank	2150/2200
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2400/2450

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon