Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT September 05, 2015
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
As has been the pattern in recent week, last week was just another down week with most corn prices slipping by about USD 5 m/t while soybeans were off by USD 7 m/t which was also about the same for soymeal prices. Wheat prices in the US also dropped with soft red winter down by about USD 6 m/t and hard red winter down by only about USD 3 m/t.
This is a long weekend in the US with Monday being the Labor Day holiday, so the small rally in futures prices on Friday may have been more related to the three day weekend rather than to any change in market conditions. No one much wants to be holding open futures positions over a long weekend.
It is reported that grain elevators are feeling harvest pressure as farmers rush to their fields to harvest as much corn as possible and even some soybeans. The USA weather looks very good for most of the country – as it has been for almost all this growing season – and there should be few delays at present to the early harvest. It is reported that combines are out in the fields in Illinois.
According to futures market reports, investment funds are quite long corn futures so it looks like they are not expecting much further price weakness although a couple of reports did say that they may just be staying long in expectation of smaller corn crops in Argentina and Brazil.
Just a word or two about US sorghum, so far this year China has been the buyer of over 94% of the US exports of 5.2 million m/t of sorghum – 4.9 mm/t to China. Last year China took 6.4 million m/t of US sorghum but with the current situation in China will we see these export numbers again in 2015.
The 2015 soybean crop seems to be finishing off very well as we move closer and closer to the major soybean harvest period. The weather is good – perhaps a little too hot in a couple of areas but quite good overall. The wild card in the deck with soybeans is China and what will happen in coming months as they sort out their financial situation. China has taken just over 8 million m/t of US soybeans up to the end of July – below last year by 14% - and the trade wonders where China will go from here. It is going to be difficult to reach the 31 million m/t of soybean shipments to China that the US did in 2014.
The market does expect soybeans and soymeal prices to continue lower in coming weeks as everyone will have to face harvest pressure and the need will be there to move some beans and meal.
USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – August 31, 2015
| Crop condition | Excellent % | Good % | Fair % | Poor % | Very Poor % | |
| Corn | 19 | 49 | 22 | 7 | 3 | |
| Sorghum | 12 | 56 | 25 | 5 | 2 | |
| Soybeans | 15 | 48 | 26 | 8 | 3 | |
@USDA
France AgriMer – crop condition report – August 31, 2015
| Winter crops | Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % | |
| Barley spring | 9 | 57 | 26 | 8 | 2 | |
| Corn | 8 | 47 | 24 | 15 | 6 | |
| Wheat soft | 21 | 56 | 17 | 5 | 1 | |
@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $14/14.50 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $52/53.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $55/56.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $40/41.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $56/57.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $38/39.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $2.00 | C |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $36/37.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t | $8.00/8.50 | Down $0.50 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t | $8.50/9.00 | Down $0.50 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $33/34.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 875 | Down 28 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1187 | Up 116 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 837 | Down 137 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 870 | Down 61 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 485 | Up 6 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 660 | Up 51 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR September 2015/December 2015
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 199/209 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 220/226 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 170/174 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 177/182 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 180/183 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 172/175 | x |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 168/171 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 220/228 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 166/169 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 172/175 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 161/166 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 169/173 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 235/240 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 165/172 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 181/183 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 150/157 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 149/155 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 165/169 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 179/182 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 169/174 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 196>>186 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 135/140 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 341/348 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 391/398 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 388/392 | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 340/346 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 377/383 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 333/340 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ | USD 535/540 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 372/376 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 363/369 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 357/364 | x |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD no prices | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 340/346 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 660/670 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 161/166 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 194/198 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 257/261 m/t | x |
There was little or no excitement in the corn by-product side of the market this week as the major export buyers were all out of the market for now. According to trade reports there was a little price weakness in the FOB US Gulf prices while the domestic USA prices were steady in most markets. However, there did seem to be a little weakness creeping into prices out in November and December but that may just be because buyers are bidding lower for those positions.
The USDA grain crushing report was issued this week and it shows that DDGS production for July was about even with June 2015 at about 2 million m/t produced. Corn gluten meal showed July production of 97,000 m/t with corn gluten feed at about 330.000 m/t. Just over 11 million m/t of corn was used in July for dry and wet milling with most of the production results being ethanol – DDGS are a direct by-product of ethanol production.
USA exports corn by-products – Jan/July 2015 – in m/t – major destinations only
|
| Corn Gluten Feed | Corn Gluten Meal | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS |
| Canada | 16,100 | 34,500 | 276,200 |
| Chile |
| 60,900 |
|
| China |
|
| 4,278,500 |
| Colombia | 30,600 | 50,600 | 64,200 |
| Costa Rica |
|
| 47,000 |
| Egypt | 8,300 | 131,800 | 66,200 |
| El Salvador |
| 8,200 | 33,000 |
| Germany | 29,700 |
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| Honduras |
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| 22,200 |
| Indonesia |
| 89,100 | 117,900 |
| Ireland | 91,800 |
| 117,200 |
| Israel | 77,700 |
| 16,400 |
| Japan |
|
| 135,300 |
| Malaysia |
| 11,100 | 18,600 |
| Mexico | 13,700 | 21,400 | 919,600 |
| Morocco | 32,100 |
| 60,600 |
| Peru |
| 15,700 |
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| Philippines |
|
| 50,400 |
| Portugal | 17,400 |
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| South Korea | 16,500 |
| 222,300 |
| Spain | 28,900 | 4,800 | 14,400 |
| Taiwan |
| 9,400 | 100,600 |
| Thailand |
| 15,700 | 202,800 |
| Tunisia | 4,000 |
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| UK | 37,700 |
| 54,100 |
| Vietnam |
| 6,900 | 268,800 |
@USDA GATS
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia USD 800/830 m/t CNF Asia |
There didn't seem to be much change in Asian animal protein prices this week although buyers are said to be looking for lower prices. There were lower prices from exporters in Argentina for poultry meal and feathermeal but not too many buyers were jumping at the quite attractive prices. With USA poultry meal price moving higher the Argentina supply could be a good opportunity for buyers.
Exports of feathermeal from both the USA and Australia were quoted at slightly higher prices this week while meat and bone meal prices seemed to be a little softer – probably due to pressure coming from lower soymeal prices.
There doesn't seem to be anyone much in the market who is expecting prices to move higher, only perhaps for pet food grade poultry meal, as the trend to lower vegetable protein prices continues and it is very difficult to fight the trend.
In the domestic USA market, most animal protein prices were steady but there is certainly an expectation that prices will have to move lower – especially for MBM that seems to be quite overpriced at present.
USA exports animal protein – Jan/July 2015 – in m/t
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| Meat and bone meal Includes pork meal and poultry meal | Feathermeal |
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| Bangladesh | 3,800 |
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| Canada | 30,300 | 8,600 |
| Chile |
| 14,900 |
| China | 15,500 |
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| Ecuador | 5,100 |
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| Holland | 6,700 |
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| Indonesia | 67,800 | 27,300 |
| Mexico | 14,200 |
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| Philippines | 6,100 |
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| Thailand | 4,100 |
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| Vietnam | 6,200 | 2,600 |
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@USDA GATS
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
This week seemed to be El Nino week as there was a rash of new reports issued, most of which seemed to show that there could be a serious El Nino event later in 2015 that could extend into early 2016. It looks like there could be some effects to the coast of Peru but it is too soon to know if there will be any effect on fishing.
The trade expects that the next Peru fishing season could start in October and speculation has the quota as high as 1.5 million m/t but overall, thoughts are that the quota will be closer to 1 million m/t.
New business in Peru continues soft as China tries to sort out their fishmeal stocks, the financing problems and the "hazardous cargo" situation. It may take a little time to get China sorted out.
Prices in Peru and Chile have slipped a little lower for the medium to lower grade fishmeal while Prime and Super Prime prices are steady to higher due to limited supplies. The trade feels that there is little chance on prices dropping much lower and expect prices could creep higher in coming days.
While the China situation is serious, many in the fishmeal business feel that a late 2015 El Nino could be much more serious to Peru fishmeal supplies and prices – but only time will tell.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,600 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,470 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,500 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,560 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,580 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1340/1360 |
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| 65/66 protein | 1390/1410 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1420/1440 m/t |
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| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1480/1500 m/t | 1480/1500 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1580/1600 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t | 1630/1650 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1680/1700 m/t | 1650/1670 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2050 | 1700/1800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2450 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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