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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Sorry that I am a little late with this week's report but this week was another travel week and now I am in Edinburgh, Scotland where my wife has been celebrating her birthday with all of her jillions of Scottish relatives – ah these Scots now how to throw a birthday party.
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
This week was a down week for everything in the US except for soybean and soymeal with beans moving higher by about USD 4 m/t with soymeal higher by about the same USD 4 m/t. Wheat prices were weaker across the board with US prices dropping for all wheat, except durum, by about USD 6 m/t. corn had a quite quiet week but ended up down by a couple of dollars once the week was finished.
On the corn side of things, there are some feeling in the trade that major export buyers are waiting for corn prices to slide a little lower before they do any serious buying. How much lower is only a guess but there is the feeling that some would hope for prices as low as what was seen back in late August, which is another USD 7 or 8 m/t below where we are today.
Corn prices are still suffering from harvest pressure and lower than hoped export sales but this will not last forever and prices will rally higher one of these days. That will probably happen once the grain is all in the silos and the export buyers think prices are at the bottom.
With soybeans, the harvest is chugging along very well and is far ahead of last year's harvest number and the export sales numbers have not been all that bad either – not startling export levels but not too low either. The projections from Informa for the soybean plantings for 2016 forecast an increase in soybean plantings and they are also calling for increase corn plantings with only wheat showing a drop in projected plantings.
There was a very interesting article in last week's Economist – titled "Oily foods" – that was detailing the effect of lower oil prices on world food prices. They make some very good points and the article is worth reading if you can see it on the WWW.
USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – October 12, 2015
| Crop condition | Excellent % | Good % | Fair % | Poor % | Very Poor % | |
| Corn | 20 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 3 | |
| Sorghum | 11 | 54 | 27 | 6 | 2 | |
| Soybeans | 16 | 45 | 26 | 8 | 3 | |
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| Harvested: | 2015 % | 2014 % | 5 year avge % |
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| Corn | 42 | 23 | 43 |
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| Soybeans | 62 | 37 | 54 |
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| Sorghum | 51 | 40 | 44 |
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| Winter wheat | 66 | 64 | 66 |
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@USDA
France AgriMer – crop condition report – October 12, 2015
| Spring crops | Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % | |
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| Planted | 2015 | 2014 |
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| Winter wheat | 39% | 31% |
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| Winter barley | 61% | 50% |
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@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $15/15.50 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $48/49.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $52/53.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $39/40.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $52/53.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | steady | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $30/31.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Egypt | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $7.50/8.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $8.00/8.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China | $26/27.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $42/44.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $42/44.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $19/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 754 | Down 53 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1318 | Down 231 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 722 | Down 39 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 658 | Down 41 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 376 | Down 4 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 623 | Down 25 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2015/January 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 210/214 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 216/220 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 190/194 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 199/208 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD no prices | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 197/200 | X |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 194/197 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 213/219 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 183/187 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 189/192 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 166/174 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 187/192 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 225/230 | X |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 176/180 | X |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 183/189 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 166/170 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 164/168 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 168/174 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 180/185 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 173/176 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas or NOLA | USD 197>>189 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 145/150 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 361/365 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 401/405 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 386/391 | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 360/365 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 378/385 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 345/352 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ | USD 555/565 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 380/384 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 371/374 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 369/372 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 360/365 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 617/622 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 160/165 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 183/187 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 219/223 m/t | x |
According to trade reports out of the US the interest in DDGS for export is building once again as buyer, especially China, seem to want to capture some supply at the current very low price – both low prices for DDGS but also very low sea freight price, both in vessels and in containers. So the Asian market for DDGS is getting much more active as the corn harvest gets close to completion and the low prices of the season look about to end.
On the corn gluten side of things, the recent prices have been quite low, making CGM a very attractive protein alternative. Of further interest to CGM users is the shortage of fishmeal in world markets and the expectation that CGM demand will be seen as a very competitive alternative to very hard to find fishmeal supplies. We could see a serious spike higher in CGM prices if major fishmeal buyers decide that CGM will be a good alternative.
As to corn gluten feed, it continues to be a quiet market with little or no excitement and just a trend to follow corn prices wherever they may go.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 420/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 730/760 m/t CNF Asia |
I was reading a comment this week from Australia on the prices that have been seen for animal proteins, meat and bone meal in particular, in Asia and how the current very low price level can just not continue for much longer – or so the experts feel. As usual it is just a case of too much supply from some origins chasing too little business. Both Australia and New Zealand are feeling the pressure of low buyer's price ideas with little room for a few dollars higher. Trade reports say that there were some buyer's bids for MBM down as low as USD 420 m/t for Australian material but buyers are looking much closer to USD 500 m/t to get serious about selling.
But this is really only a short term situation and animal protein prices into Asia are about due for a move higher at least for buyer's bids.
Trade report shave also been saying that the tight supply for fishmeal is going to help the poultry meal prices to move higher in coming weeks, as fishmeal buyers will have to look at other proteins to replace fishmeal. There will not be as much effect in MBM as on poultry meal but there could be a little spill over demand that will push up prices.
The extremely low prices for animal protein of the last few weeks may be coming to an end and we may get back to a more normal price levels in coming weeks.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There has been very little change in fishmeal prices in Peru but then there is little to sell so there is not much price activity. However, the fishmeal prices in Europe have all taken a reasonable jump higher in the last few days as demand is good and supply if limited --- seems to be a seller's market at present but not much to sell.
Back down in Peru there is little new information as the officials are all being very quiet about what is happening with the new fishing season. There is going to be a two-day fishing trial on October 19 and 20 to see how the biomass looks – 26 fishing vessels will be involved. The report on the trial should be available nearer the end of October.
The MSI Ceres report this week was pointing out how buyers who need fishmeal for October and November, perhaps December too, are going to have to source material from other origins as Peru is just not going to have anything available until late December or January shipment. This is certainly a good reason to keep fishmeal proves firm for the next couple of months.
Also as MSI Ceres points out: if you have nothing left to sell, high prices mean nothing (or words to that effect).
There is still a great deal of concern in all the trade reports that there may be no fishing quota in Peru in Nov/Jan but this is still just talk and worry with no concrete facts as yet – we will all have to wait and see what next weeks trial fishing shows about the biomass.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,700 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,540 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,600 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,700 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,730 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1370/1390 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1410/1430 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1450/1460 m/t |
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| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1480/1500 m/t | 1480/1500 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1580/1600 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t | 1630/1650 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1750/1800++ m/t | 1750/1800++ |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2050 | 1700/1800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2450 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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