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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Looking at where cash and futures prices in the US finished on the week it seems like a very quiet week. Of course looking at where things finished does not give one a good idea of the ups and downs of the market during the week.
Looking at corn there doesn't seem to be a great deal of need for prices to move lower as a drop of a couple of dollars a m/t seems to bring out the buyers, so that while prices do slide a bit lower they don't stay lower for long. It looks like most buyers have the idea that prices are not going to go much lower so even saving a couple of dollars a m/t is attractive to them.
There is still not a huge amount of farmers selling of corn stocks but enough is still coming to market to keep supply and demand balance quite well – for now.
The US corn harvest is still going well with only a few delays and yields are very good but US export sales of corn are terrible – where are all those export buyers who had taken 6 million m/t by this time last year.
Both soybeans and soymeal prices, cash and futures, were a little lower this week. Like corn, the soybean harvest is going well with few delays – and good yields. China bought some more soybeans last week, what else is new. On the soybean futures side of things there seems to be a move to more short positions by the major speculators – are they correct, do they know that prices will move lower, probably not – that is why they are called speculators.
The soybean harvest is well ahead of the average and this could put added pressure on soybean prices although the market does not feel like it is about to make a significant move lower.
When you are up to your ears in corn and soybeans and the harvest is racing on, it is difficult to expect higher prices without some earth shattering news. Perhaps the drop in Argentina corn plantings or news that China will not buy as much corn or the unsettled soybean situation in China can move markets higher – but it didn't this week.
USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – October 19, 2015
| Crop condition | Excellent % | Good % | Fair % | Poor % | Very Poor % | |
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| Harvested: | 2015 % | 2014 % | 5 year avge % |
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| Corn | 59 | 30 | 54 |
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| Soybeans | 77 | 51 | 68 |
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| Sorghum | 61 | 47 | 52 |
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| Winter wheat | 76 | 75 | 77 |
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@USDA
France AgriMer – crop condition report – October 19, 2015
| Spring crops | Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % | |
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| Planted | 2015 | 2014 |
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| Winter wheat | 58% | 50% |
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| Winter barley | 78% | 71% |
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@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $14.50/15 | Down $0.50 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $32/33.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $51/52.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $38/39.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $51/52.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $7.50/8.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $8.00/8.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $42/44.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $42/44.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | No info |
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| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $19/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 774 | Up 20 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1461 | Up 143 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 683 | Down 39 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 648 | Down 10 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 362 | Down 14 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 609 | Down 14 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2015/January 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 210/213 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 211/219 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 192/197 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 200/207 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 203/208 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 191/194 | x |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 188/191 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 216/221 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 184/188 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 184/187 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 174/178 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 190/193 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 225/230 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 177/180 | X |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 184/187 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 169/173 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 169/172 | X |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 170/176 | X |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 183/186 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 175/181 | X |
| Corn #2, CNF Asia | USD 215/222 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas or NOLA | USD 198>>190 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 145/150 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 351/355 | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 391/395 | X |
| Soymeal, CNF Asia | USD 420/423 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 374/380 | X |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 350/355 | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 370/375 | X |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 335/340 | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ | USD 550/560 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 380/386 | X |
| Soybeans #2, CNF Asia | USD 396/400 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 368/373 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 366/370 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 358/363 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 610/620 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Asia, containers | USD 648/654 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, CNF Egypt, containers | USD 690/700 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 155/160 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 187/190 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont | USD 214/224 m/t | X |
USA prices for corn by-products: DDGS, corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed. All trended a little lower on the week with US domestic DDGS prices down by about USD 5 m/t and CGM off by about USD 10 m/t. Similar weakness was seen in export prices while CNF prices were even weaker due to a further drop in some container prices, especially to Asia.
This week's US Grains Council report says that DDGS prices are at a very low level versus corn prices. They say that DDGS are selling at about 75% of corn while the normal ratio is closer to 95%. One would think that this could mean higher DDGS prices in coming days but this will depend greatly on the demand side of things and if shipments to China continue on the low side it will be tough to imagine DDGS prices moving higher.
Corn gluten meal export prices are also at a very low level compared to the past year's levels – CGM looks like quite a bargain at present since alternatives like fishmeal are very expensive and many markets for CGM can't use lower priced animal proteins.
Now looks like the time to be booking both DDGS and CGM for 2016 shipment – before the prices rally higher.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 450/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 730/760 m/t CNF Asia |
According to comments in trade reports this week, there was a very wide range of prices seen in the export market in Asia with buyers bidding very low for meat and bone meal with sellers holding out for higher prices. It is also reported that some trades were done at levels below the market as not every exporter could hold out for higher prices.
The actual prices reported by the trade are unchanged from last week but there seem to be undercurrents in the market that are tending to pull prices lower. It seems that some business could have been done from New Zealand and Australia at levels well below the indicated prices shown above.
USA domestic prices did not do much this week but there are stories that some producers have quite large stocks of animal proteins and that there could be further weakness in prices until the extra supply is sold off – if there is a sell off this could allow some bargain prices to slip into the export market, at least for the short term.
As usual, the market tends to watch soymeal prices and with soymeal moving lower this week it is easy to imagine animal proteins slipping a little lower.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Again this week the big question is quota, quota, quota – what will Peru do? Starting today in Peru the government is having an "acoustic exploration" done of the coast of Peru that will finish on the 28th at midnight. All these various surveys and such will be analyzed and then we should have some word on what the quota may be.
MSI Ceres is speculating in their report this week that there may be a few days of open exploratory fishing allowed for the full fleet before any final quota decision is made. They also feel that we may be in for a quite low quota this period.
Quoted fishmeal prices in South America were quite a bit higher this week but it is very difficult to know where the prices should be when there is so little available. The prices for the next few weeks and months are going to be very dependent on the quota – so prices noted today don't mean very much and are only a reasonable indication of where prices may be.
The prices show for North Germany as probably a little better indication of where prices are since many of the origins indicated are actually available.
We are just quietly waiting to find out what is happening in Peru.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,705 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,530 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,650 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,750 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,730 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1470/1490 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1510/1530 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1550/1560 m/t |
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| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1580/1600 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1680/1700 m/t | 1680/1700 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1770/1790 m/t | 1730/1750 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1820/1900++ m/t | 1850/1900++ |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2050 | 1700/1800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2450 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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