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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Corn had a very unexciting week as prices did very little. There had been some market comment that the USDA stocks report on Wednesday would get the market excited but that did not happen, as, at least for corn, there were no major surprises in the report. While the actual corn stocks were seen to be much higher than last year this was due to an earlier harvest start in 2015 compared to 2014.
There were also more comments this week on how the US farmer is going to hold on to as much corn as possible until the prices move higher and the fact that the farmer is holding stock will certainly help to move prices higher.
In Europe there was quite bit of comment on how the very large supply wheat means that feed wheat seems to be replacing corn in feed rations which could mean that EU imports of Black Sea corn could drop resulting in more corn in the market and perhaps keeping Black Sea corn prices low.
Soybean and soymeal prices were both lower on the week as there didn't seem to be any reason for prices to remain steady or move higher. Most of the export soybean market these days is with China, so anything that China does affects prices and on a day when China does nothing then prices seem to slip lower.
Looking at US soybean export numbers it seems that exports are at a three year low – even with good recent sales to China – low demand normally means lower prices so little reason seen at present for higher prices.
Next week we get the latest USDA WASDE report and updated supply and demand numbers could have a strong effect on prices – either up or down. However, reading many trade reports this weekend no one seems to be expecting any major surprises in next week's report.
USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – September 28, 2015
| Crop condition | Excellent % | Good % | Fair % | Poor % | Very Poor % | |
| Corn | 19 | 49 | 22 | 7 | 3 | |
| Sorghum | 11 | 54 | 27 | 6 | 2 | |
| Soybeans | 15 | 47 | 26 | 9 | 3 | |
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| Harvested: | 2015 % | 2014 % | 5 year avge % |
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| Corn | 18 | 11 | 23 |
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| Soybeans | 21 | 9 | 16 |
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| Sorghum | 36 | 32 | 32 |
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| Winter wheat | 31 | 40 | 35 |
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@USDA
France AgriMer – crop condition report – September 28, 2015
| Spring crops | Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % | |
| Corn | 10 | 46 | 24 | 15 | 5 | |
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| Harvested: | 2015 | 2014 |
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| Corn | 93% | 90% |
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@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $14/14.50 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $24/25.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $25/26.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf South Africa | $34/35.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $18/19.00 | Steady |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Steady |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $53/54.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $39/40.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Down $1.00 |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $53/54.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $35/36.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Europe | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $31/32.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t | $7.50/8.00 | Steady |
| Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t | $8.00/8.50 | Steady |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t | $13/14.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Ukraine to China | $24/25.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $45/47.00 | Up $5.00+ |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $45/47.00 | Up $5.00+ |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $15/17.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $20/22.00 | New |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $22/23.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $31/32.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 889 | Down 54 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1931 | Down 93 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 701 | Down 43 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 691 | Down 42 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 392 | Down 16 |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 617 | Down 1 |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR September 2015/December 2015
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 222/226 |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 226/231 |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 177/180 |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 185/193 |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 184/186 |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 183/185 |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 180/182 |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 220/225 |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 170/174 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 180/183 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 164/171 |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 178/182 |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 225/230 |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 180/183 |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 184/189 |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 166/170 |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 162/167 |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 169/172 |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 175/179 |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 172/175 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas or NOLA | USD 200/203 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 150/155 |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 349/354 |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 399/404 |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 378/383 |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 351/354 |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 367/372 |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 330/336 |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ | USD 540/545 |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 379/383 |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 363/366 |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 363/367 |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 360/365 |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 615/625 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 158/162 m/t |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 184/188 m/t |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 230/235 m/t |
USA domestic DDGS prices were lower on the week by as much as USD 10 m/t but export prices were not down as far – probably due to a lack of export buying activity. As number of trade reports were saying that corn will probably not go much lower this harvest which may mean that we will be seeing higher DDGS prices in coming weeks as corn gets past the harvest low levels.
The story is much the same for corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed as export prices just keep slipping lower on falling corn prices and limited export demand. Of course with the US domestic prices moving lower then the export markets are bound to follow lower.
The USDA issued their grain crushing report this week and it showed that DDGS production was down a very little in August at just under 2 million m/t, corn gluten feed production was up a little at 343,000 m/t while corn gluten meal was steady at 96,000 m/t – all numbers are USA August production.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 460/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 610/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 760/770 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 440/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 540/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
Asia is the major export market for animal proteins and this week there was little or no new business seen in Asia – the result of which was prices slipping lower. The feed production business in much of Asia is at seasonal low levels and Indonesia is said to have a corn shortage which is limiting feed production even more. The drop in production is limiting the current demand for animal protein as is the low cost of alternative vegetable protein items.
All animal protein prices into Asia are looking quite weak but this will change if we see some new demand.
Domestic prices in the USA were lower this week as the US harvest is putting pressure on all prices. US experts are saying that there seems to be very little chance that any protein prices will be moving higher in the short term, as there is just too much protein available everywhere – especially vegetable protein and few buyers will be willing to pay a premium for animal proteins.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
As mentioned last week, all the important people in the fishmeal business were at the IFFO meeting in Berlin this past week and should be heading home by now – so news from the industry has been quiet but there has been quite a bit from the IFFO meeting.
There was a story in Berlin that Peru may not allow the next fishing season due to concerns about both El Nino and the Kelvin Wave. The story was based on interviews with a couple of senior fishmeal people at the IFFO meetings. There was also story that the Oct/Nov/Dec fishing will be allowed but that there may not be an early 2016 fishing quota due to expected El Nino effects on fishing stocks. Of course, this is all speculation and may not be as serious as the news stories imply.
There was also a presentation at IFFO that seemed to show that European fishmeal was far superior to South American fishmeal in actual feed use. The presentation stated that the South American industry has the potential to improve the overall quality and feed performance of its fishmeal but that attention to better production methods will be needed.
It was reported this week that a ship was seized in Chile with an illegal cargo of 5,600 m/t of Chilean fishmeal. It appears that there have been some adjustments made to landing scales in Chile that allowed over quota catches of sardines and anchovies which then resulted in over quota production of fishmeal. The seizure was as a result of government investigation into fishmeal production and exports.
Omega Protein, a major USA fishmeal producer, has said that they are "reviewing strategic alternatives" which the press has assumed means that Omega is up for sale.
There was very little in reported fishmeal sales this week, although we don't know as yet what may have been negotiated in Berlin – prices are unchanged on the week.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,615 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,465 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,550 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,650 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,620 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1370/1390 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1410/1430 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1450/1460 m/t |
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| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1480/1500 m/t | 1480/1500 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1580/1600 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t | 1630/1650 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1680/1700 m/t | 1650/1670 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2050 | 1700/1800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2450 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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