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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
This week ended with the USDA WASDE report on Friday – a report that the market had been waiting for with much concern – concern that there could be major changes in the previous USDA forecasts. Well the report is out and to most experts the numbers seemed to be quite neutral and should have no serious effect on prices. However, as is the rule, the futures markets immediately over reacted to the report and Friday's prices jumped around quite a lot after the report was issued. The day in the futures market actually finish on a reasonable level with corn futures down by about USD 3 m/t, soybean futures up by USD 2 m/t and soymeal up by USD 4.00 m/t, wheat futures prices were down by no more than USD 1 m/t --- all these are changes just for Friday. For the full week, corn futures were down by only USD 2 m/t with soybeans up by about USD 4.50 m/t on the week with soymeal up by close to USD 7 m/t. These are all futures prices not cash prices.
Some of the grain experts said that this report was probably the last WASDE report for the season that could have a major effect on prices as the next reports will be after the harvest is complete and not much is going to change in the US from there on. Of course, there is always the chance that crop estimates will change for major southern hemisphere origins: Argentina, Brazil, Australia but not much can happen to any northern hemisphere numbers once the season is over.
Contrary to what is said above, we do have the planting of winter wheat and winter barley in the USA, Europe and the Black Sea that can be thrown off by weather but it is a little too early to know how winter grain crops will fare.
As to cash prices for now, farmers in the US are holding on to as much corn and soybeans as they can in the anticipation of higher prices after harvest and this may be keeping both from slipping any further down. After the harvest, as prices start to move up a little, the farmers will be selling little bits with the continued hope that limited selling will allow some strength to come back into the prices.
USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – October 05, 2015
| Crop condition | Excellent % | Good % | Fair % | Poor % | Very Poor % | |
| Corn | 20 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 3 | |
| Sorghum | 11 | 54 | 27 | 6 | 2 | |
| Soybeans | 16 | 48 | 25 | 8 | 3 | |
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| Harvested: | 2015 % | 2014 % | 5 year avge % |
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| Corn | 27 | 16 | 32 |
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| Soybeans | 42 | 19 | 32 |
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| Sorghum | 43 | 36 | 37 |
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| Winter wheat | 49 | 54 | 51 |
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@USDA
France AgriMer – crop condition report – October 05, 2015
| Spring crops | Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % | |
| Corn | 10 | 46 | 23 | 15 | 6 | |
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| Planted | 2015 | 2014 |
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| Winter wheat | 23% | 20% |
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| Winter barley | 37% | 36% |
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@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $14/14.50 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $24/25.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $25/26.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf South Africa | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Down $2.00 |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $18/19.00 | Steady |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Steady |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $53/54.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $39/40.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $53/54.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $35/36.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $33/34.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $7.50/8.00 | Steady |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $8.00/8.50 | Steady |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $13/14.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Ukraine to China | $24/25.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $45/47.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $45/47.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Down $2.00 |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $14/16.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $19/21.00 | Down $1.00 |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $22/23.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $31/32.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 809 | Down 80 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1549 | Down 382 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 761 | Up 60 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 699 | Up 8 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 380 | Down 12 |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 648 | Up 31 |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR October 2015/January 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 217/221 |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 221/226 |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 184/187 |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 191/198 |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD no prices |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 194/199 |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 191/194 |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 215/220 |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 179/182 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 188/191 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 174/177 |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 185/191 |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 225/230 |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 182/186 |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 191/195 |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 169/173 |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 167/171 |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 169/172 |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 184/187 |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 173/176 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas or NOLA | USD 203/206 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 150/155 |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 348/352 |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 388/392 |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 376/380 |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 351/354 |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 370/374 |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 332/336 |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ | USD 544/549 |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 380/383 |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 364/368 |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 363/367 |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 355/360 |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 622/628 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 155/160 m/t |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 185/189 m/t |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 230/234 m/t |
The domestic price in the US was lower this week for all corn by-products: distillers dried grains DDGS, corn gluten meal CGM and corn gluten feed CGF – all of this is related to the harvest pressure in the US and this will probably keep by-product prices steady to lower until we get to near the end of the harvest – assuming that there is no rally in corn prices related to Friday's WASDE report.
Some of the US trade reports say that the DDGS inventories are building and that producers don't want to be selling much at today's low prices when the DDGS were produced from higher priced corn stocks not new, lower cost supplies. Producers are much like farmers – they want to hold on to their supply when prices get too low.
These days most corn by-products are at a very attractive price level compared to where they were not all that long ago. With corn gluten meal we see prices about USD 100 m/t below where they were back in April/May – that makes for very attractive prices for export CGM users. As you can see by the chart below, Egypt is the largest market for US CGM exports but there are stories that stocks of CGM in Egypt are very high and the next three months could see lower imports. Even so, the imports of CGM by Egypt in the first 8 months of 2015 are at record levels and are higher than any full 12 months in the past 15 years.
USA corn by-product exports – January to August, 2015, in m/t – major destinations
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| Distillers Dried Grains DDGS | Corn Gluten Feed | Corn Gluten Meal |
| Canada | 304,800 | 17,700 | 40,200 |
| Chile |
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| 108,900 |
| China | 4,933,600 | 2,200 |
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| Columbia | 71,400 | 30,600 | 64,400 |
| Costa Rica | 52,000 | 2,700 |
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| Egypt | 88,600 |
| 164,600 |
| Germany |
| 29,700 |
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| Indonesia | 141,300 | 1,300 | 99,900 |
| Ireland | 141,800 | 127,900 |
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| Israel | 46,200 | 102,625 |
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| Japan | 154,200 |
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| Malaysia | 23,900 |
| 13,000 |
| Mexico | 1,045,700 |
| 24,000 |
| Morocco |
| 32,100 |
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| Peru |
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| 16,100 |
| Philippines | 61,400 |
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| South Korea | 330,600 | 16,500 | 1,000 |
| Spain | 36,900 | 28,900 |
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| Taiwan | 123,500 |
| 11,300 |
| Thailand | 233,400 |
| 18,500 |
| UK | 82,000 | 54,500 |
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| Vietnam | 339,100 |
| 8,200 |
@USDA GATS
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 740/760 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 420/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia USD 730/760 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein price both in the US and in the major markets in Asia are all tending lower – some quite a bit lower. Trade reports say that there is just too much animal protein supplies available which is pushing all prices lower. At present the US supply of protein is priced quite a bit below Australian and buyers are snapping up the US product. Australia doesn't want to have to match the low prices but probably will in the coming days unless US prices move higher.
The feeling in some of the trade reports is that prices really can't go much lower and that as soon as the short term oversupply is taken care of then we will get back to a more normal level of prices.
It is interesting that the US grain harvest even has a downward effect on animal protein prices – the harvest pressure seems to affect all feed ingredients as buyers always have a lower price mind set during the harvest.
USA animal protein exports – January to August, 2015, in m/t – major destinations
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| Meat and bone meal – all types | Feathermeal |
| Canada | 36,400 | 9,400 |
| Chile |
| 17,200 |
| China | 19,000 |
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| Ecuador | 5,700 |
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| Holland | 6,700 |
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| Indonesia | 74,400 | 30,300 |
| Mexico | 16,200 |
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| Philippines | 6,400 |
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| Vietnam | 6,600 | 2,600 |
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@USDA GATS
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
All the fishmeal folks are back from Berlin and business is going once again. Word from Berlin was that there was very little business done at the conference since there were no sellers from Peru due to the uncertainty about the next fishing quota --- will there be one or not – no one really knows. There has been some talk in the trade about just a small fishing quota being set, around one million m/t, but this is all just guess work by the trade supported by very few facts.
The trade reports that there is somewhere between 30 and 40,000 m/t of fishmeal available in Peru – not much but then not too many are looking at present. While it is very difficult to get a good idea of current Peru fishmeal prices due to very low stock, it has been widely reported that Super Prime fishmeal is being sold at USD 1800 m/t or more – if it can be found. The prices from now will all depend on what level the Peru fishing quota is set at – the lower the quota the higher the price will probably be.
Peru was closed for two days of holidays this week – 8th and 9th – so there is not a great deal of news from there.
Just for information – while 77% of Peru's fishmeal exports go to China this only represents 50% of China's fishmeal imports with the balance of the imports spread between at least 16 other origins. No one origin is as important to China as Peru but there are several origins at around 7% of the imports each, those are: Chile, USA, Russia, Vietnam and Thailand – each of which shipped 40,000+ m/t of fishmeal to China to the end of August 2015. China reports importing 317,000 m/t from Peru.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,610 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,480 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,545 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,645 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,640 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1370/1390 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1410/1430 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1450/1460 m/t |
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| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1480/1500 m/t | 1480/1500 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1580/1600 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t | 1630/1650 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1750/1800++ m/t | 1750/1800++ |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2050 | 1700/1800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2450 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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