Weekly Report - Dec 05, 2015

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

We had an interesting up week this week in grain and oilseed prices – something that we haven't seen in a while. Corn prices moved higher by about USD 5 m/t while soybeans were up by USD 11 m/t and hard red winter wheat was up USD 5 m/t while soft red winter could only rally by a couple of dollars a m/t.

 

The story in the trade papers was that corn prices were pushed higher mainly by futures traders covering short positions. There was also the word about US EPA ethanol blending requirements that could increase corn use for ethanol over the next year.

 

According to trade reports, USA corn is now very competitive in world markets and this could push exports higher – although recent weeks have not shown any amazing corn export numbers.

 

One trade report was saying that, looking at the past 20+ years, corn prices tend to reach their lowest level in December and move higher from then. We will have to wait and see if 2015 is another average year.

 

What could be very interesting for corn and soybeans is the possible action by Argentina to reduce their current export tax levels. It is hard to imagine that they will eliminate export taxes but even a limited tax reduction could shake up export markets. We have to wait and see what Argentina does.

 

On the soybean side of things, exports for the week were very good and traders are reporting quite good interest from soybean buyers for 2016 positions. The trade expects that the USDA WASDE report next week will show lower soybean ending stocks so this thinking helps to keep prices firm.

 

Soybean futures were also pushed higher by short covering caused by a little rally and nervous shorts.

 

 

USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – November 29, 2015

 

Crop condition		Excellent %	Good %	Fair %	Poor %	Very Poor %
Winter wheat	11		44	36	7	2
Subsoil moisture	Surplus %		Adequate %	Short %	Very short %
	10		65	19	6

@USDA

 

 

 

 

 

France AgriMer – crop condition report – November 30, 2015

 

Winter crops	Very Good %	Good %	Average %	Bad %	Very Bad %
Barley	35	62	3
Wheat - soft	36	62	2
Durum	20	76	3	1
Planted	2015	2014
Winter wheat	99%	99%
Durum	97%	88%
Winter barley	100%	100%

@France AgriMer

  

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$13/14.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$21/22.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$22/23.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$46/47.00	Steady	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Down $1.00	x
US Gulf South Africa	$30/31.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$26/27.00	Down $2.00	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$25/26.00	Down $2.00	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$17/18.00	Steady	x
US PNW China: Panamax	$16/17.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$41/42.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$47/48.00	Down $1.00	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$37/38.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$31/32.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$46/47.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$25/26.00	Down $2.00	X
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$27/28.00	Down $2.00	X
Argentina to Egypt	$20/21.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$32/33.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Europe	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Down $1.00	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$29/30.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$16/17.00	Down $1.00	x
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t	$6.50/7.00	Steady	X
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t	$7.00/7.50	Steady	X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$9.50/10.00	Down $1.00	X
Ukraine to China	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$18/20.00	steady	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$37/39.00	Down $2.00	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$9/10.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$37/39.00	Down $2.00	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$28/30.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$11/12.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$16/18.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$23/24.00	Down $1.00	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Baltic Dry Index	563	Down 18	X
Baltic Capesize Index	890	Down 99	X
Baltic Panamax Index	433	Down 23	X
Baltic Supramax Index	469	Up 2	X
Baltic Handisize Index	286	Up 3	X
Bunkerworld fuel index	544	Down 26	x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR November 2015/January 2016

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 203/206	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 216/218	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 191/194	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 192/196	x
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 191/194	x
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 190/193	x
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	USD 188/191	x
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 193/198	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 185/188	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 180/182	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 188/191	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 183/187	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 220/225	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 172/175	x
Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2	USD 221/223	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 181/184	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 170/173	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 173/176	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 172/177	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 178/181	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 170/174	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 181/184	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 140/145	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 332/335	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 360/363	X
Soymeal, USA CNF Asia	USD 394/400	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 343/348	x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 324/327	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 340/345	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 304/309	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ	USD 550/560	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 365/368	x
Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia	USD 392/395	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 340/345	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 347/352	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 355/360	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   585/590 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont.	USD   629/635 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont.	USD   660/665 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   155/160 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   186>>180 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont	USD   225/229 m/t	x

 

 

DDGS prices for the start of 2016 are about USD 5 m/t lower than the end of 2015, of course there is not much of 2015 left but a few days and lots of holidays.

 

The USDA crushing report came out this week and showed DDGS production up by about 2% over last month at 1.95 million US tons (1.77 million m/t). corn gluten meal production was down by about % to just over 75,000 m/t while corn gluten feed production was up by 4% at 296,000 m/t.

 

While US corn prices did move higher this week by about USD 5 m/t, there seemed to be no effect on any corn by-product prices. Perhaps we will see a move higher next week if there is a further rally in corn prices.  For the longer term there just doesn't seem to be any good reason to expect higher prices.

 

 

 

USDA corn by-product exports – Jan to October 2015, in m/t – major destinations

 

	Distillers Dried Grains DDGS	Corn Gluten Feed	Corn Gluten Meal
Canada	403,900		52,900
Chile			118,000
China	5,786,800
Colombia	105,200	42,200	68,300
Egypt	88,600	8,300	184,100
El Salvador			10,900
Germany		29,700
Indonesia	188,000	21,700	121,100
Ireland	176,600	161,600
Israel	106,500	153,700
Japan	190,700
Malaysia			16,300
Mexico	1,350,386	16,900	29,000
Morocco	93,500	38,600
Peru			16,500
Philippines	86,000
Portugal		17,400
South Korea	473,300	16,500
Spain		34,700	4,800
Taiwan	165,700		15,000
Thailand	302,100		22,400
Turkey	81,400
UK	122,200	55,300
Vietnam	538,700		11,000

@USDA FAS GATS

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia  USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia  USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia  USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia  USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 425/445 m/t CNF Asia  USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 600/620 m/t CNF Asia  USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia

 

Export buyers in Asia are just not in a buying mood these days – much due to the drop in demand from the poultry industry in Indonesia – the largest US export market. USA export prices are quite soft for meat and bone meal as exporters try to get buyers excited with lower prices – buyers don't seem to be getting excited at all. Australian MBM prices are quite high due to lower supply and OZ exporters have no interest in meeting the low prices seen in the Asia market – at least not for now.

 

As shown by the prices below, US feathermeal export prices are also lower this week, pushed down by heavy stocks in the USA and hopes for some export business.

 

In the USA domestic market, almost everything is lower and there just isn't any strength in any animal protein – except perhaps in pet food grade poultry meal. Market experts don't see any possible rally in prices for now and, with low vegetable protein prices, no one is going to be looking much at animal proteins.

 

Seems we are in for a period of steady to lower animal protein prices – at least until the supplies get tight or there is a good rally in vegetable proteins.   

 

 

USDA animal protein exports – Jan to October 2015 – in m/t – major destinations

 

	Meat and Bone Meal Incl: pork and poultry meal	Feathermeal
Indonesia	95,300	35,600
Chile		21,100
Canada	48,400	14,500
Vietnam	6,700	2,600
China	27,400	1,000
Mexico	21,300
Philippines	7,000
Netherlands	7,900
Ecuador	5,800
Thailand	5,200
Bangladesh	3,800

@USDA-FAS GATS

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Fishing in Peru is up to about 370,000 m/t as of the 3^rd which leaves another 740,000 m/t still to catch to reach the quota. Average daily catch is ranging between 20,000 and 28,000 m/t which experts say is not too bad for the time and for areas used. The biggest disappointment so far is the Paita region where the catch has been zero with experts saying that this is due to the temperature of the sea in the area. These wee fish are very aware of water temperature and go to where they are comfortable – at that seems not to be Paita.

 

There is still very little new business being done in Peru and some trade reports are saying that the lack of business is getting very worrisome.  With stocks of fishmeal on hand of close to 110,000 m/t, producers would like to see a little bit of business appearing.

 

The feeling in Peru seems to be that the full quota will be caught and that prices will have to move lower in order to get buyers back into the market. Price will also have to be a little lower in order to compete in major markets, other than China who will eventually buy. Peru and Chile production are just not competitive in Europe so is not attracting any buying interest – but will Peru/Chile prices drop by USD 200 m/t to compete in non-China markets. I guess that that depends on how much fishmeal is available and how hard pressed producers are to sell.

 

One can probably expect that, at least in the short term, we should be seeing lower fishmeal prices.

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,740
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,500
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,750
Chile fishmeal	67 protein	1,845
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	1,780

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	1550/1570 m/t
65/66 protein	1600/1620 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1700/1720 m/t	No offers
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1800/1820 m/t	No offers
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1850/1870 m/t	1820/1840
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1900/1920 m/t	1870/1890
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	1950/2000 m/t	1900/1920
Fish oil, crude bulk	2000/2050	1700/1800
Fish oil, crude drums	2100/2150
Fish oil, flexi tank	2150/2200
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2450/2500

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon