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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
The USDA WASDE report this week did not cause much excitement in the markets as most experts feel that it was much of a non-event – US corn stocks will be up a little as will be barley and sorghum. On the world scene, world corn production will be down by 1 million m/t and consumption down by the same amount. US corn exports are forecasted to be down a little while corn use for ethanol will be up a little ---- but overall there was not enough new or changed information to get the corn market all excited. In futures, the corn prices finished this week at close to the same level as last week – these days a drop in price of only USD 2 m/t is really considered no change.
Of course, the lower price of oil in world markets also has quite an effect on corn as it relates to ethanol production and usage. With the bottom falling out of oil prices what is the near term prognosis for ethanol and will corn usage in ethanol remain steady.
As seems to be the recent pattern, soybeans and soymeal had a down week with soybean futures down by about USD 12 m/t while soymeal futures fell by about USD 11 m/t with much the same situation being seen in the cash side of the market.
Weather in South America for the soybean crop seems to still be quite good – not good everywhere but not enough bad weather conditions to scare the market. However there is said to be a fungus problem in the soybean crop in some areas of Brazil but the total soybean crop is still expected to be massive.
The WASDE report expects a little lower planting for US soybeans in 2016 and slightly lower yields to go along with that.
As I have been saying for a while now, there is just not enough bullish news to get a rally going in corn or soybeans and this time of the year, other than South American weather, there are very few reasons to expect higher prices. At least not until the next scary story or nasty weather.
No updated USA or France crop reports this week.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf South Africa | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $47/48.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | No info | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $31/32.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Egypt | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $6.50/7.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $7.00/7.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $9.50/10.00 | Steady | X |
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| Ukraine to China | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $18/20.00 | steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $36/38.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $8/10.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $36/38.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $26/28.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $15/17.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $18/20.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 522 | Down 41 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 779 | Down 111 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 410 | Down 23 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 451 | Down 18 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 282 | Down 4 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 488 | Down 56 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2016/March 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 206/208 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 212/216 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 192/195 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 192/196 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 194/197 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 185/187 | X |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 182/184 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 185/190 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 185/188 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 180/182 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 182/187 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 183/186 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 174/176 | x |
| Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2 | USD 222/224 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 180/182 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 170/173 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 173/176 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 171/175 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 185/187 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 172/176 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 183/185 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 140/145 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 318/322 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 346/350 | x |
| Soymeal, USA CNF Asia | USD 380/487 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 338/342 | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 305/308 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 336/341 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 290/296 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ | USD 540/550 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 355/359 | x |
| Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia | USD 380/384 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 328/332 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 327/333 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 355/360 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 585/590 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont. | USD 614/619 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont. | USD 650/660 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 153/157 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 182/184 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont | USD 215/220 m/t | x |
Strangely enough, in a week where soymeal prices were own by at least USD 10 m/t and corn was a little weaker there was no weakness at all in DDGS prices for export and even very little weakness in the US domestic prices – perhaps prices will show some weakness next week. On the export side, with a great deal of early 2016 business booked the prices will probably not show a great deal of weakness as there are few shipping positions available. However, get out a few weeks further and export prices do look to be softening a bit.
Both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed were a little lower this week. CGM was following soymeal prices lower – it is difficult for a product like CGM, that is 60% protein, to remain strong when soymeal continues to drop lower. Except for the pet food folks not too many want to pay a premium for their vegetable protein – even if it is a nice yellow color.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 520/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia |
With soybeans and soymeal prices quite a bit lower this week there was pressure on animal protein prices as no one much wants to pay a premium for animal proteins. Contrary to the prices that I show above, the Jacobsen Report says that Argentina meat and bone meal is being offered as low as USD 310 m/t CNF Asia – now that is a low price. However, most other reports have MBM into Asia more in the 400/430 m/t price range.
The Jacobsen Report also mentions European MBM that is coming into Asia as corn gluten meal in order to avoid import restrictions. They say that this seems to be quite common in South East Asia.
Just for information the Jacobsen WWW site is: www.thejacobsen.com – it is a subscription site.
There are lots of holidays coming up in the next few weeks and buyers are reported to be well covered into the first part of 2016, so new sales are bound to be a tad on the low side until we get into January 2016.
Domestic USA prices were weaker for animal proteins as the pressure from soymeal being down by more than USD m/t helped to weaken prices. The feeling is that any buyer bids somewhere close to the market will probably be accepted. No one sees much short term strength in market prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing in Peru has been up and down, depending on the fishing mini-bans, but overall the trade seems to think that fishing is actually better than expected. The daily catch numbers have been in the range from a low of about 15,000 m/t to a high of just over 30,000 m/t. The total landed against the northern quota is now up to close to 540,000 m/t which leaves about 570,000 m/t still to land. Not too bad actually.
The trade in Peru still feels that it is going to be difficult to land the entire quota. However, the comment is also being made that the El Nino so far is not as bad as had been expected so perhaps landing the balance of the quota won't be as difficult as some are saying.
On the sales side of things, there doesn't seem to be much business around these days and stocks are building in Peru. According to the MSI Ceres report this week the fishmeal price in China is below the current replacement price from Peru so buyers are not looking to place any new orders. However, MSI Ceres also says that China's estimated fishmeal imports are expected to be up by 17% in 2016.
The MSI Ceres www site is: www.misceres.com
Unsold fishmeal stocks in Peru are estimated to be at about 150,000 m/t and building – so producers are hoping for some business to develop in coming days.
The published prices in Peru have changed very little but there has been some weakness seen in the European fishmeal prices which should mean that we will see a drop in Peru. Of course, if the buyers don't come back to the market in Peru, then the exporters will be getting much more flexible in their export prices.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,750 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,550 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,700 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,800 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,750 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1550/1570 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1600/1620 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1700/1720 m/t | No offers |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1800/1820 m/t | No offers |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1850/1870 m/t | 1820/1840 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1900/1920 m/t | 1870/1890 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1950/2000 m/t | 1900/1920 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2050 | 1700/1800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2450/2500 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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