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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
With the big news in Argentina about the removal of export taxes on wheat and corn and the reduction in export taxes on soybeans and the expected collapse in world grain prices then perhaps we were all a little surprised to see how little actually happened. However, perhaps of greater effect, will be the floating of the Argentina peso and its one-day drop of about 26% versus US dollars bring in the year date drop to over 35%. Local bank spot interest rates in pesos are said to be close to 40% in order to try to attract some interest into pesos.
The word from Argentina at the end of the week is that farmers are starting to move their corn to market.
Looking at futures prices in the US, we had corn prices at close to unchanged levels for the week when everyone expected lower prices and soybeans up by USD 7 m/t when earlier in the week all were saying it was doom and gloom for soybeans. Soymeal too was up on the week by about USD 7 m/t.
If you leave Argentina out of the grain equation this week, then it seemed like a very quiet week overall. Not much exciting with corn and US prices were steady. Soybean and soymeal prices moved higher on concerns over dry weather in Brazil and effects on the new crop. Reports also say that part of the soybean rally was due to the lack of Argentina farmers selling but one suspects that South American weather is mainly what is pushing prices a little higher.
It will be interesting to see if there is any serious Argentina effect in the markets next week as the exporters adjust to the removal of the taxes and the fall in the peso.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf South Africa | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $47/48.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $6.50/7.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $7.00/7.50 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $9.00/9.50 | Down $0.50 | X |
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| Ukraine to China | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $18/20.00 | steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $36/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $8/10.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $36/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $26/28.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $10/11.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $15/17.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $18/20.00 | Steady | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 477 | Down 45 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 524 | Down 254 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 425 | Up 15 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 449 | Down 2 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 273 | Down 9 | X |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 449 | Down 39 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2016/March 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 205/207 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 212/215 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 193/196 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 193/195 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 194/196 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 183/185 | X |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 180/182 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 188/194 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 183/185 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 176/179 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 184/187 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 181/185 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 171/173 | x |
| Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2 | USD 219/221 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 177/179 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 167/170 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 170/173 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 167/171 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 172/175 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 168/172 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 180/183 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 143/147 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 321/324 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 349/353 | x |
| Soymeal, USA CNF Asia | USD 383/388 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 326/329 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 303/306 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 323/327 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 295/299 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ | USD 540/550 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 363/366 | x |
| Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia | USD 385/389 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 324/328 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 327/333 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 355/360 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 580/590 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont. | USD 614/619 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont. | USD 650/660 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 155/160 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 181/183 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont | USD 218/220 m/t | x |
The big question this week is what effect, if any, will the possible China DDGS antidumping probe have. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has 60 days to review the situation and to decide whether or not a probe is justified. The initial complaint is said to have come from local ethanol producers. A similar complaint was lodged about 5 years ago but the complaint was later withdrawn before any action was taken. Even if the only short term effect is to scare Chinese importers out of the DDGS market this could cause a serious drop in US DDGS exports, which reached about 5.8 million m/t at the end of October – up 40% on 2014.
While China's DDGS imports have more than double since 2010, the total USA DDGS exports are up by only 18% with a number of markets having dropped off considerably – some due to price and some due to new GMO restrictions.
Depending on who you talked to this week, the export price for corn gluten meal was either steady or down by about USD 10 m/t while in the domestic US market CGM prices tended to be slightly higher. It may be that we are close to the bottom on CGM prices as they have come down a long way in recent months. Of course, if corn get very weak it should also pull down CGM prices.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 390/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 390/410 m/t CNF Asia USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein export prices are lower about everywhere this week as the major import markets in Asia all seem to be out of the market or bidding well below where market prices are thought to be. Exporters in Australia and New Zealand are doing their best to hold price up but buyers are not at all interested.
There has also been quite bit of lower priced animal protein sold by US exporters into Asia which is helping to push prices down. The Jacobsen Report this week was saying that OZ/NZ producers have been trying to keep prices up in the domestic market by pushing product out for export but this has only moved export prices lower. It seems that, at least for now, export demand is down and major buyers are holding good stocks.
Things are also very soft in the US domestic market with prices seeming to slip a little lower each day. The situation with soymeal and with Argentina is certainly not allowing any strength to build in the market as no one is all that sure what is going to happen over the next few weeks.
Perhaps, once we get into 2016, all will become quite a bit clearer.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The Peru landings fell off a little this week with mini-bans and such but the total up to the end of the 17th is up to 673,000 m/t landed which leaves about 437,000 m/t to go – so we are about 61% of the way to completing the quota. Trade exports are saying that, if the catch levels can keep up, the full quota could be landed by mid-January. Of course this will all depend on the weather and the mini-bans for fishing.
According to industry reports, the fishoil yields in the catch so far have been below average but have started to move a little higher in the last week or so. It has also been reported that the FFA levels in the fishmeal production are higher this year so difficulties have been seen in reaching grade standards for Super Prime and Prime.
The market is very quiet in Peru but there is some buying interest in Super Prime but at levels closer to USD 1800 m/t – which is about where prices in Chile are reported to be. Industry experts are saying that a drop in fishmeal prices in Peru of about USD 200 m/t is to be expected.
There are a lot of holidays over the next couple of weeks so no one is expecting to see a sudden rush of new business – all will probably remain calm until we get into 2016 and buyers have to start covering while producers have to start being a little more flexible on price.
Looking at the fishmeal industry from the major producers in 2015 versus 2014 shows that the overall production is up by about 25% to 1.6 million m/t with the biggest increase being in Peru where production of fishmeal is up by 49% to just under 800,000 m/t. Chile is the second largest producer at 300,000 m/t – down 17% from 2014, followed by Denmark/Norway at 280,000 m/t, up 23% and Iceland at 230,000 m/t, up by 43%.
Contrary fishmeal the Peru fishoil production is down by 25% in 2015 while Chile is down by 24% -- Denmark/Norway and Iceland both show fishoil production increases at about the same level as the fishmeal increases. All this info is from the industry association IFFO.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,760 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,540 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,690 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,790 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,750 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1550/1570 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1600/1620 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1700/1720 m/t | No offers |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1800/1820 m/t | 1680/1700 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1850/1870 m/t | 1700/1750 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1900/1920 m/t | 1750/1770 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1950/2000 m/t | 1800/1820 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2050 | 1800/1900 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2450/2500 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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