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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Here I am on Christmas Day typing out my weekly report – you would think that I would have better things to do at Christmas. The thing is that there is so little new information and activity in the market on a three-day work week that there is really not much to say and little to do but to update all the prices for grains and freight.
The few trade reports that were issued this week all comment on how limited the business has been this week and how little volume was done on the CBOT.
About the most exciting thing that happened this week was Egypt's GASC buying Argentina wheat for the first time in almost 10 years. The Argentina price was quite a surprise to the trade as it came in at about USD 10 m/t if not more below other offers. France was number two in price but was still far above the Argentina price. It will be very interesting to see what happens in other wheat tenders in coming weeks.
Also, if wheat can be so much below the market, will the same be true of Argentina corn? At least one trade report was saying that Argentina corn prices have been "very aggressive". If so, we may just see export corn prices from the US and the Black Sea having to move lower.
On the soybean side of things, all eyes are on Argentina to see what happens with their soybean exports. China is reported to be very active in Argentina, at least actively talking about soybeans. With the drop in the peso and in the export tax on beans, Chinese Soybean business could quickly shift to Argentina.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $21/22.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf South Africa | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $16/17.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $15/16.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $47/48.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Egypt | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $6.50/7.00 | Steady | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $7.00/7.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $9.00/9.50 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $18/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $8/10.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $26/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $9/10.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $15/17.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $18/20.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 478 | Up 1 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 470 | Down 54 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 462 | Up 37 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 450 | Up 1 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 270 | Down 3 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 449 | Steady | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2016/March 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 207/209 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 212/215 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 188/191 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 185/192 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 188/192 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 184/187 | x |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 181/183 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 185/189 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 175/179 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 175/178 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 181/184 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 178/182 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 220/225 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 169/171 | x |
| Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2 | USD 217/219 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 174/176 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 167/170 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 170/173 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 165/169 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 169/172 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 166/169 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 177/180 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 140/143 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 318/322 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 346/350 | c |
| Soymeal, USA CNF Asia | USD 380/385 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 331/334 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 300/303 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 333/336 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 290/294 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ | USD 540/550 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 370/373 | x |
| Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia | USD 397/400 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 322/325 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 327/333 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD no prices | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 585/595 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont. | USD 620/625 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont. | USD 650/660 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 155/160 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 178/181 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont | USD 215/218 m/t | x |
According to the very limited number of trade reports issue this week, the spot prices for all corn by-products were higher due to the limited supply available over the next couple of weeks. The longer term prices, into February and March are unchanged but this is mainly due to very little activity in the market this week with many US exporters closed on Thursday and Friday.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 480/490 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 390/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 390/410 m/t CNF Asia USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia |
Sorry but no comments on animal proteins this week as there seem to be no trade reports being published.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The fishing in Peru has dropped off this week due to both mini-bans and Christmas holidays. The total catch to date is up to 766,000 m/t, which is 69% of the quota. So, it looks like the full quota should be landed, unless there are an overwhelming number of mini-bans.
Due to the holiday week there has not been much in the way of export business and this will probably carry on until we get into January. However, there is the odd rumor that fishmeal prices are continuing to drop, even with little buying activity this week.
The China import numbers for January to November have been published and they show that Peru is by far the largest fishmeal shipper to China with just over 52% of the business – 475,000 m/t. The nest largest is the USA but with only 8.5% of the business at 77,000 m/t. In the first eleven months of 2015, China imported 907,000 m/t of fishmeal from at least twenty origins. As everyone knows, China is the largest market in the world for fishmeal.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,760 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,510 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,680 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,760 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,750 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | 1550/1570 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1600/1620 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1700/1720 m/t | No offers |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1800/1820 m/t | 1680/1700 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1850/1870 m/t | 1700/1750 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1900/1920 m/t | 1750/1770 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1950/2000 m/t | 1800/1820 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2050 | 1800/1900 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2450/2500 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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