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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
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Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
While corn prices had a quiet week this week there was sufficient bullish news to push soybeans, soymeal and most types of wheat higher in the US.
There was just no reason at all for corn prices to move higher this week and not even much reason to move lower. The USA is expecting corn plantings above last year, Argentina corn prices are below USA prices and USA corn exports are lower than had been expected. Certainly these are all good reasons why corn prices are flat.
There doesn't seem to be anyone expecting higher corn prices in the near future since it is too late for weather to do much to the South American corn crops and the USA and Black Sea corn crops are yet to be planted. So we are in the corn doldrums with prices up a little then down a little but nothing major happening.
Soybeans and soymeal were both up on the week - USD 7 to 11 m/t – with most experts saying that the rally was mainly due to the political situation in Brazil with the past President under criminal indictment and the current President facing possible impeachment – certainly complicated politics. The US speculative futures players have been very short soybeans and any upheaval in Brazil is enough to get them covering their shorts in fear (or at least in capturing profits). It is also reported that investment funds were large buyers of soybeans and soymeal on Friday which also helped push prices higher.
Of course I may also be that this political problem in Brazil is short term and shouldn't have any serious effect on oilseed prices and then we could see soybeans/meal slip lower again.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
Baltic dry bulk freight rates for Capesize vessels continue lower while the Baltic index rates for vessels used for grain shipments have moved higher this week by about 10% -- the effect can be seen in actual rates where prices have moved up by about USD 1 m/t for many destinations.
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf South Africa | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Bangladesh | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW South Africa | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $12/13.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $47/48.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $26/27.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $10.00/10.50 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $10.50/11.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $12/13.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Australia to South Africa | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Iran | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $7/8.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $9/10.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 349 | Up 22 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 164 | Down 13 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 386 | Up 34 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 371 | Up 38 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 232 | Up 20 |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR March/May 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 194/196 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 205/209 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 168/171 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 170/173 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 180/182 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 165/167 | X |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 163/165 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 189/194 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 164/167 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 161/163 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 159/162 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 170/174 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 140/145 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 158/162 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 167/169 | x |
| Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2 | USD 207/210 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 157/160 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 151/154 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 163/168 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 168/170 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 163/167 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 174/176 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 157/161 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 318/322 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 344/346 | x |
| Soymeal, USA CNF Asia | USD 360/368 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 316/320 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 299/303 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 308/312 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 276/282 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ | USD 545/555 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 343/347 | x |
| Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia | USD 379/383 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 322/325 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 324/328 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 370/375 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 550/560 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont. | USD 591/599 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont. | USD 625/630 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 155/160 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 190>>182 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont | USD 218>>213 m/t | x |
Even though there was very little change in corn prices this week, the prices for all corn by-products trended lower on the week. Both US export and domestic prices were lower for corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal and DDGS.
For DDGS the domestic prices averaged about USD 5 m/t lower with corn gluten feed also seen at about USD 5 m/t lower. Across the USA, corn gluten meal was higher in some spots and lower on others although the quoted export prices did move lower by USD 5 to 10 m/t depending on the seller.
For anyone interested in numbers the USA production figure below are interesting
USDA USA Corn by-products production and exports
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| January 2016 Production | 2015 Yearly Production | 2015 Yearly Exports | Exports % of Production |
| DDGS | 1,869,700 | 22,256,300 | 12,555,000 | 56.4% |
| Corn gluten feed | 321,900 | 3,899,900 | 789,900 | 20.2% |
| Corn gluten meal | 87,266 | 1,079,600 | 818,000 | 75.8% |
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@USDA
USDA reported USA exports – January 2016 – in m/t – major destinations only
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| Corn Gluten Feed | Corn Gluten Meal | Distillers Dried Grains DDGS |
| Canada | 2,500 | 6,000 | 47,600 |
| China |
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| 219,000 |
| Colombia | 5,400 | 5,200 | 4,900 |
| Costa Rica |
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| 6,800 |
| Indonesia |
| 14,700 | 25,900 |
| Ireland | 35,460 |
| 48,500 |
| Israel | 18,700 |
| 5,000 |
| Japan |
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| 14,900 |
| Malaysia |
| 1,800 |
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| Mexico | 1,000 | 2,800 | 195,700 |
| Morocco | 5,700 |
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| Philippines |
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| 14,300 |
| Portugal | 21,400 |
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| Portugal |
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| 6,600 |
| South Korea |
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| 45,000 |
| Taiwan |
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| 17,800 |
| Thailand |
| 1,800 | 46,800 |
| Tunisia |
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| 9,500 |
| Turkey |
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| 5,500 |
| UK | 7,700 |
| 19,500 |
| Vietnam |
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| 45,700 |
@USDA GATS
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 425/435 m/t CNF Asia USD 440/450 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 350/370 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/480 m/t CNF Asia USD 610/690 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein were higher this week in all export markets with the USA leading the way to higher prices. It seems that quite strong domestic demand in the US is forcing export prices higher and this coupled with tight supplies out of Australia and New Zealand is pushing prices. Trade reports say that buyers are still bidding at last week's levels but that it now appears to be a seller's market and buyers will have to pay up.
Even feathermeal prices are higher after weeks of slipping prices – amazing how a little demand can quickly change the direction of prices.
With this rally in prices and tight supplies there is probably good reason to expect prices to continue to move a little higher until there is a change in supply or demand falls off.
USDA reported USA exports – January 2016 – in m/t – major destinations only
|
| Feathermeal | Meat and Bone Meal Incl pork and poultry |
| Canada | 400 | 5,500 |
| China |
| 5,900 |
| Germany |
| 2,500 |
| Indonesia | 2,500 | 11,000 |
| Mexico |
| 13,200 |
| Philippines |
| 1,700 |
| Vietnam |
| 2,200 |
@USDA GATS
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishmeal prices in Peru had a tick higher this week as buyers (and there were some) were booking lower grades due to the very high price for Super Prime fishmeal. It seems that there is so little Super Prime available that the price spread seen in the market is vast. The MSI Ceres report this week reports that the spread could be USD 150 m/t up to USD 200 m/t. But then isn't this just Supply and Demand 101 – low supply means higher prices especially when demand is good.
Trade reports this week do mention a smattering of business but no one seems to be expecting a sudden rush of new buying – in particular not from China where all is quiet. Shipments from Peru are chugging along with most going to China and Germany but volume is certainly not overwhelming, although there have been some reports of logistics difficulties due to very busy export ports. Peru exports lots of things in containers, not just fishmeal as some buyers seem to feel – all these exports do tend to create a backup in shipping from time to time.
There is a fishmeal conference coming up in China in late March and all the biggest buyers and sellers will be there but there seems to be little expectation of major sales since the new fishing quota for Peru will not have been announced and sellers won't want to presell much with no idea of fishing volumes.
As you can see by the table below, most everything seems to be competitive these days with no large gaps in prices as we had for all of 2015. Peru and Chile are back in the game.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,625 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,445 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,445 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,545 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,640 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1350/1370 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1370/1390 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1400/1420 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | 1450/1480 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1520/1540 m/t | 1500/1520 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1550/1570 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1650/1670 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 | 2000/2100 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2450/2500 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2550/2600 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2800/2850 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
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