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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Thank you to all the people who had something to add to my comment of last week -- most everyone had the same opinion on social media and all the comments, except one, said that the weekly report was of value --- so I guess that I will continue to do the report, at least for now.
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Corn prices in the US tried to move higher this week but had little success as every small increase seemed to lead to increased selling and lower prices. At the end of the week there was really little or no change in domestic or export corn prices. We do have the USDA Planting Intentions report coming up next week – with most experts saying planting will be up in 2016 – so this should set the trend for corn prices for a little. The market is expecting the higher planting number for corn, so if the report is close to estimates there should be minimal effect on prices but if the USDA reports plantings below the trade estimates then we could see a nice little price rally.
One negative factor for corn is the increased production forecast by Argentina that has corn 10 million m/t higher than recent USDA forecasts and Argentina export corn sales are said to be very strong.
Soybean and soymeal prices were higher this week with experts saying that it was a rally in soymeal that pulled soybeans higher. Some experts say that it was the high US soymeal export numbers that got the market moving higher while others say it was due to loading delays in Brazil. At least one report this week was saying that with US soymeal at a very large price premium to Brazilian there is little reason for US prices to increase as export demand will not continue.
The Brazil soybean harvest is just finishing, delayed a tad by rain, while the Argentina harvest is about to roll out --- there is certainly not going to be any shortage of soybeans for this spring.
As with corn prices, the USDA Planting Intentions report will have an effect on US soybean/meal prices, so we will see what happens this coming week.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $11.50/12.50 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $19/20.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $20/21.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW South Africa | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $14/15.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $13/14.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $48/49.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $14.00/14.50 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $14.00/14.50 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $10/11.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 406 | Up 11 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 203 | Up 6 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 466 | Up 3 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 473 | Up 24 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 268 | Up 8 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR March/May 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 195/199 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 205/209 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 168/172 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 162/165 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 167/170 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 167/169 | x |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 166/168 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 185/189 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 163/166 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 164/166 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 150/155 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 167/170 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 140/145 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 163/165 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 169/172 | x |
| Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2 | USD 202/208 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 164/167 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 161/164 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 163/167 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 171/173 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 165/169 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 178/180 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 160/162 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 322/325 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 347/351 | x |
| Soymeal, USA CNF Asia | USD 369/372 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 325/329 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 309/313 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 317/322 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 284/288 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ | USD 550/555 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 366/370 | x |
| Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia | USD 396/401 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 340/344 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 349/353 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 360/365 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 540/545 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont. | USD 588>>574 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont. | USD 620>>610 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 140/145 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 169/172 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont | USD 210/213 m/t | X |
The US domestic price for DDGS was lower on the week and this translated into export prices of about USD 5 m/t lower. Both corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal were also lower on the weak with most of the weakness seen in May/June as March/April sales have been good and prices steady. The USDA says that the average price for corn gluten meal was only down by USD 1.00 m/t while average corn gluten feed price in the domestic market was up by about USD 1.00 m/t.
With the drop in soymeal prices on the week it is difficult to keep any strength in corn by-product prices.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 370/380 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/390 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 350/370 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 450/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 730/750 m/t CNF Asia |
Meat and bone meal prices form the USA to Asia moved a little higher again this week but prices a couple of months out are said to be as much as USD 30 m/t higher than spot prices. Australia and New Zealand prices are said to be mainly unchanged. The feeling expressed by experts is that MBM prices are going to by touching USD 500 m/t CNF Asia in coming weeks as demand is building but supply is not. Of course, with soymeal up by about USD 10 m/t on the week it is easy to understand why there is strength in animal proteins.
USA domestic prices for both MBM and feathermeal were higher on the week and this trend is expected to continue – at least in the short run.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There is not a great deal of news out of South America on fishmeal this week – most offices were closed on Thursday and Friday for Easter holidays. Also, many of the senior fishmeal folks are in Shanghai for the JCI Conference and fishmeal/fishoil forum. Perhaps we see some reports of bookings for the next fishing season.
Stocks in Peru are said to be getting down to the 40,000 m/t range, so not much left for current buying.
About the only new information, in this short work week, is export and import numbers. Peru only shipped 65,000 m/t of fishmeal in January and February with 66 percent going to China with another 12 percent to Germany. Looking at China's imports for the same period, they imported 90,000 m/t with just over 40,000 m/t (44.3%) coming from Peru, followed by 10,300 m/t from Chile (11.4%) – the balance of the imports came from 16 different origins.
There was really no change in prices in Peru this week and most of the price changes seen in Europe are due to the change in value for the USD.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,760 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,440 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,470 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,550 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,690 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1300/1310 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1330/1395 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1350/1370 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1420/1440 m/t | 1430/1450 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1500/1520 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1550/1570 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1650/1670 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 | 2000/2100 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2450/2500 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2550/2600 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2800/2850 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
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