Weekly report -- March 12, 2016

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Most every expert this week has said that the WASDE report was a non-event and that the effect on the grain/oilseed markets was nil.

 

While corn prices did move a little higher this week, most experts seem to feel that this was mainly related to the futures market with little actual market news to push prices higher. It seems that the size of the trader's short corn positions was much larger than expected which, they say, caused some quick short covering and pushed prices higher. There was also quite a bit of short covering in advance of the WASDE report (just for safety) which moved corn prices higher early in the week.

 

Last week was also a good week for US corn exports with the reported sales reaching the high for the marketing year. USA corn looks quite competitive to many export markets – perhaps the total will reach the USDA forecasts after all.

 

Actual cash corn prices didn't really move much, perhaps up a dollar or two.    

 

Wet weather in Brazil continues to slow their soybean harvest and is helping to move prices higher. Several trade experts have mentioned the possibility of a truckers strike in Brazil which would make export shipments even more difficult. Truckers in Brazil do have the habit of striking during the peak harvest period.

 

USA reported soybean exports are on target for the year.

 

Many experts are saying that the soybean prices are now driven by the harvest in Brazil and the upcoming harvest in Argentina --- anything that slows the harvest will probably push prices higher, be it bad weather or bad truckers.

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$11.50/12.50	Up $0.50	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$20/21.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$19/20.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$46/47.00	Up $2.00	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf South Africa	$28/29.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Bangladesh	$30/31.00	steady	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$23/24.00	Steady	x
US Gulf China: Panamax	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
US PNW South Africa	$32/33.00	Steady	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$14/15.00	Up $1.00	X
US PNW China: Panamax	$13/14.00	Up $1.00	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$40/41.00	Up $1.00	X
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$47/48.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$27/28.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Up $2.00	x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$42/43.00	Up $2.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$19/20.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$25/26.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Egypt	$19/20.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$17/18.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$18/19.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$32/33.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$22/23.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$17/18.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$18/19.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Europe	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$29/30.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$17/18.00	Steady	x
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t	$12.00/13.00	Up $2.00	x
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t	$12.00/13.00	Up $2.00	x
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$14/15.00	Up $2.00	x
Australia to South Africa	$19/20.00	Steady	x
Australia to Iran	$27/28.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to China	$18/19.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)	$20/21.00	Up $1.00	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$34/35.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$8/9.00	Up $1.00	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$34/35.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	c
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$17/18.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$9/10.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$14/15.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$20/21.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$22/23.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Up $1.00	x
Baltic Dry Index	388	Up 39	x
Baltic Capesize Index	176	Up 12	x
Baltic Panamax Index	477	Up 91	x
Baltic Supramax Index	420	Up 49	x
Baltic Handisize Index	249	Up 17	x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR March/May 2016

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 199/201	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 211/214	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 167/170	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 167/171	x
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 167/170	x
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 167/169	x
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	USD 166/168	x
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 187/192	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 159/163	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 164/166	x
Barley, feed, Argentina	USD 150/155	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 170/174	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 150/155	X
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 162/165	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 166/169	x
Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2	USD 210/212	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 162/165	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 160/163	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 161/165	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 169/171	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 163/167	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 177/179	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 159/163	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 320/323	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 346/349	X
Soymeal, USA CNF Asia	USD 367/373	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 329/332	x
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 311/314	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 319/322	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 289/292	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ	USD 545/555	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 353/357	x
Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia	USD 388/392	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 334/337	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 337/340	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 360/365	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD  540/550 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont.	USD  589/593 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont.	USD  620/625 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD  155/160 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD  182>>177 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont	USD  219>>214 m/t	x

 

 

All corn by-products: DDGS, corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed, were lower this week even with steady corn prices. A couple of trade reports said that the reason for the change in prices seemed to be a drop in feed demand due to warm weather in the US. Of course with DDGS we have the falling level of exports to China and the increasing stocks which are weighing heavy on prices.

 

Lower prices for DDGS also have an effect on both CGF and CGM as all are fighting for a place in the animal feed ration and feed producers and farmers in the US can quickly and efficiently change their feed formulations to incorporate which ever feed ingredient is the most cost effective.

 

CGM is more on its own as it is a major pet food ingredient and, as a high protein item, does not always have to fight it out with DDGS and CGM – at least not quite as much.

 

The China situation will continue to affect DDGS prices as slipping exports will turn into growing inventories.

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 370/380 m/t CNF Asia  USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia  USD 380/390 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein	USD 350/370 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia  USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia  USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia  USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia  USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 450/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 730/750 m/t CNF Asia

 

The USA domestic market for meat and bone meal was much higher this week with some trade reports showing prices up by USD 25-35 m/t in the US. Some of this rally was caused by the move higher in soybeans and soymeal, as buyers snapped up as much low cost MBM as possible. However, trade reports say that it is time for prices to move higher and to get prices bank more in line with soymeal prices --- MBM has been at a discount for longer than was expected.

 

On the export side of things, the higher domestic prices quickly moved into the US export market and buyers are looking at paying higher prices for all US origin animal proteins.

 

The export demand is said to be very good at present with the folks at the Jacobsen report speculating that some of the increase may be due to buyers in Indonesia getting supplies lined up before the start of Ramadan. They could be correct as Indonesia is the largest buyer of US animal protein items.

 

So, could be that we are in for a rally in animal protein prices for a time – hard to know if this is actually a new trend or just a flurry of buying.

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

 The fishmeal business in Peru is quite brisk as buyers seem to have finally realized that the stocks are finite and the next fishing season is still quite a ways in the future. Fishmeal supplies are said to now be about 50,000 m/t and this is to cover business until sometime in May 2016 --- this is quite a bit of time and not much fishmeal.

 

It is not surprising that fishmeal prices are trending higher for the next few weeks. As reported last week, there had been a move higher in Peru prices but this week we see this in Europe too. Some of the increase is due to a rally in the US dollar but most is due to increased buying.

 

On the other hand, as some trade reports are quick to point out, China has very good stocks of fishmeal and quite a bit on order, so maybe we won't see China in the fishmeal market much over the next couple of months. If China is not a buyer that will leave supplies for others but will probably not lead to lower prices.

 

There was quite a series of comments on the WWW about Atlantic salmon from Chile – this as a result of the problems with algae affecting salmon farms in Chile – a number of people were quick to point out that Chile is on the Pacific Ocean not the Atlantic so it should be Pacific salmon. However, the situation is that the "Atlantic" in this case refers to the type of salmon not the origin. Norway and Chile are the largest producers of farmed "Atlantic" salmon.

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,650
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,450
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,450
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,610
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,670

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65% protein	1350/1370 m/t
65/66 protein	1370/1390 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1400/1420 m/t	No offers
67% protein 150 TVN	1450/1470 m/t	1450/1480
67% protein 120 TVN	1520/1540 m/t	1500/1520
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1580/1600 m/t	1550/1570
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1650/1670 m/t	1650/1670
Fish oil, crude bulk	2300/2350	2000/2100
Fish oil, crude drums	2450/2500
Fish oil, flexi tank	2550/2600
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2800/2850

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon